This paper explores the impact of second-layer solutions, particularly the Lightning Network (LN), on Bitcoin mining fees. The introduction of LN promises enhanced transaction efficiency by facilitating faster and more economical off-chain transactions. Such advancements, while beneficial for network scalability, pose potential challenges to miners’ fee revenues—especially from lower-value transactions.We propose a comprehensive framework to assess the ramifications of LN adoption on miners’ fee earnings, taking into account the shift of transactions to LN. This framework not only evaluates the direct negative effects on miners’ fees but also examines the broader implications for Bitcoin’s network value as LN adoption increases, user base expands, and transaction volume grows.Moreover, our framework introduce the potential of LN to on-board millions of new users, particularly through the adoption by Superhubs. This significant expansion in network participation is posited to elevate Bitcoin’s overall value, potentially offsetting the initial decrease in mining fees.

There have been several studies in the literature discussing the profitability with various trading strategies. Two common strategies are pairs trading and momentum strategies. The momentum strategy aims to exploit the phenomenon of momentum, where securities that have performed well in the past are likely to continue performing well in the future. The concept behind a pairs trading of stocks is similar to the statistical idea of cointegration. The goal of pairs trading is to profit from the relative price movements of the two assets, rather than from the absolute price movements of either asset. This strategy is generally implemented using algorithmic trading techniques, and it is often used by traders and investors to take advantage of mispricing in the market. In this study we first compare these two strategies and implement them to study for their profitability. We considered two major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum) for these two trading strategies and show that with daily price data, dual momentum strategy generates significantly better results than the pairs trading strategy.

Data-driven volatility models and neuro-volatility models have the potential to revolutionize the area of Computational Finance. Volatility measures the variation of a time series data, and thus it is also a driving factor for the risk forecasting of returns from investment in cryptocurrencies. A cryptocurrency is a decentralized medium of exchange that relies on cryptographic primitives to facilitate the trustless transfer of value between different parties. Instead of being physical money, cryptocurrency payments exist purely as digital entries on an online ledger called blockchain that describe specific transactions.Many commonly used risk forecasting models do not take into account the uncertainty associated with the volatility of an underlying asset to obtain the risk forecasts. Some tools from the fuzzy set theory can be incorporated into the forecasting models to account for this uncertainty. Interest in the use of hybrid models for fuzzy volatility forecasts is growing. However, a major drawback is that the fuzzy coefficient hybrid models used in fuzzy volatility forecasts are not data-driven. This paper uses fuzzy set theory with data-driven volatility and data-driven neuro-volatility forecasts to study the fuzzy risk forecasts. The study focuses on long-term volatility forecasts with daily price data while briefly exploring forecasting models with high-frequency (hourly) data as an avenue for future research. Simple yet effective models incorporating fuzziness to obtain fuzzy risk volatility forecasts and fuzzy VaR forecasts are presented. The key underlying idea, unlike the existing risk forecasting, is the use of a hybrid nonlinear adaptive fuzzy model for volatility.

The Bitcoin whitepaper [1] published in 2008 pro-posed a novel decentralized ledger, later called blockchain, which enabled multiple transacting parties to agree upon the shared state of the ledger without a trusted intermediary. Blockchain technology has been used to implement many decentralized payment systems, with the general term Cryptocurrency coined for the native unit of values. The launch of the Turing-complete Ethereum blockchain [2] in 2015 extended the scope of blockchain-based financial systems beyond cryptocurrencies. The suite of non-custodial financial solutions deployed as Smart Con-tracts over Turing-complete blockchains is broadly called Decentralized Finance (DeFi). These solutions have gained widespread popularity as investment vehicles in the last two years, with their total value locked (TVL) exceeding USD 100 Billion. This paper reviews the key financial services offered in DeFi and draws a parallel to the corresponding services in the centralized financial industry. Some technical and economic risks associated with the DeFi investments are also discussed in the paper. Most of the existing review papers on DeFi focus on some specific DeFi services, are theoretically inclined, and are intended for academics in computer science or economics. This paper, on the other hand, aims to give an overview of the current state of the DeFi ecosystem. We aim to keep this review lucid to make it accessible to a broader audience without compromising academic rigor. The intended audience for this paper includes anyone with a basic understanding of financial markets and blockchain systems. This work will be specifically helpful for investment professionals to understand the rapidly evolving ecosystem of DeFi services.

The forecasting problems in Computational Finance involve modelling the vagueness and imprecision inherent to the financial markets. Fuzzy set theory has a unique ability to quantitatively and qualitatively model and analyze such problems. Volatility forecasting plays an important role in financial risk management and in option pricing. Recently, there has been a growing interest in data-driven volatility models and neurovolatility models for risk forecasting of stocks and index funds. However, even these state-of-the-art models do not take into account the fuzzy volatility in their risk forecasts.Cryptocurrencies are a novel financial asset class based on the Blockchain technology. Cryptocurrencies have gained popularity among retail investors as a financial asset with high risks and high returns. The extremely volatile nature of cryptocurrencies (compared to traditional assets) makes forecasting their volatility more challenging. A simple algorithmic trading approach, Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossover strategy, is used to calculate the Algo returns. This paper provides fuzzy forecasts of the volatility of Algo returns using the data-driven Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (DD-EWMA) and neuro models for six major cryptocurrencies. We also compute and compare fuzzy volatility forecasts of four major tech stocks and Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) using DD-EWMA and neuro models. Our experimental results show that the data-driven models produce better forecasts for cryptocurrencies as compared to the neuro models, while for the regular stocks and indexes, no such definitive conclusion could be drawn.