Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance in complex reasoning tasks through the use of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning, allowing models to break down problems into manageable sub-tasks. However, existing CoT evaluation techniques either require annotated CoT data or fall short of accurately assessing intermediate reasoning steps, leading to high rates of false positives. In this paper, we formalize CoT reasoning in LLMs through an information-theoretic lens. Specifically, our framework quantifies the ‘information gain’ at each reasoning step, enabling the identification of failure modes in LLMs without the need for expensive annotated datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through extensive experiments on toy arithmetic, GSM8K and PRM800k datasets, where it significantly outperforms existing outcome-based methods by providing more accurate insights into model performance on individual tasks.

In machine learning fairness, training models that minimize disparity across different sensitive groups often leads to diminished accuracy, a phenomenon known as the fairness-accuracy trade-off. The severity of this trade-off inherently depends on dataset characteristics such as dataset imbalances or biases and therefore, using a uniform fairness requirement across diverse datasets remains questionable. To address this, we present a computationally efficient approach to approximate the fairness-accuracy trade-off curve tailored to individual datasets, backed by rigorous statistical guarantees. By utilizing the You-Only-Train-Once (YOTO) framework, our approach mitigates the computational burden of having to train multiple models when approximating the trade-off curve. Crucially, we introduce a novel methodology for quantifying uncertainty in our estimates, thereby providing practitioners with a robust framework for auditing model fairness while avoiding false conclusions due to estimation errors. Our experiments spanning tabular (e.g., Adult), image (CelebA), and language (Jigsaw) datasets underscore that our approach not only reliably quantifies the optimum achievable trade-offs across various data modalities but also helps detect suboptimality in SOTA fairness methods.

Shapley values are model-agnostic methods for explaining model predictions. Many commonly used methods of computing Shapley values, known as off-manifold methods, rely on model evaluations on out-of-distribution input samples. Consequently, explanations obtained are sensitive to model behaviour outside the data distribution, which may be irrelevant for all practical purposes. While on-manifold methods have been proposed which do not suffer from this problem, we show that such methods are overly dependent on the input data distribution, and therefore result in unintuitive and misleading explanations. To circumvent these problems, we propose ManifoldShap, which respects the model’s domain of validity by restricting model evaluations to the data manifold. We show, theoretically and empirically, that ManifoldShap is robust to off-manifold perturbations of the model and leads to more accurate and intuitive explanations than existing state-of-the-art Shapley methods.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) in contextual bandits is crucial for assessing new policies using existing data without costly experimentation. However, current OPE methods, such as Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and Doubly Robust (DR) estimators, suffer from high variance, particularly in cases of low overlap between target and behaviour policies or large action and context spaces. In this paper, we introduce a new OPE estimator for contextual bandits, the Marginal Ratio (MR) estimator, which focuses on the shift in the marginal distribution of outcomes $Y$ instead of the policies themselves. Through rigorous theoretical analysis, we demonstrate the benefits of the MR estimator compared to conventional methods like IPW and DR in terms of variance reduction. Additionally, we establish a connection between the MR estimator and the state-of-the-art Marginalized Inverse Propensity Score (MIPS) estimator, proving that MR achieves lower variance among a generalized family of MIPS estimators. We further illustrate the utility of the MR estimator in causal inference settings, where it exhibits enhanced performance in estimating Average Treatment Effects (ATE). Our experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets corroborate our theoretical findings and highlight the practical advantages of the MR estimator in OPE for contextual bandits.

Most off-policy evaluation methods for contextual bandits have focused on the expected outcome of a policy, which is estimated via methods that at best provide only asymptotic guarantees. However, in many applications, the expectation may not be the best measure of performance as it does not capture the variability of the outcome. In addition, particularly in safety-critical settings, stronger guarantees than asymptotic correctness may be required. To address these limitations, we consider a novel application of conformal prediction to contextual bandits. Given data collected under a behavioral policy, we propose \emph{conformal off-policy prediction} (COPP), which can output reliable predictive intervals for the outcome under a new target policy. We provide theoretical finite-sample guarantees without making any additional assumptions beyond the standard contextual bandit setup, and empirically demonstrate the utility of COPP compared with existing methods on synthetic and real-world data.