Climate change poses a global threat to public health, food security, and economic stability. Addressing it requires evidence-based policies and a nuanced understanding of how the threat is perceived by the public, particularly within visual social media, where narratives quickly evolve through voices of individuals, politicians, NGOs, and institutions. This study investigates climate-related discourse on YouTube within the Brazilian context, a geopolitically significant nation in global environmental negotiations. Through three case studies, we examine (1) which psychological content traits most effectively drive audience engagement, (2) the extent to which these traits influence content popularity, and (3) whether such insights can inform the design of persuasive synthetic campaigns such as climate denialism using recent generative language models. Another contribution of this work is the release of a large publicly available dataset of 226K Brazilian YouTube videos and 2.7M user comments on climate change. The dataset includes fine-grained annotations of persuasive strategies, theory of mind categorizations in user responses, and typologies of content creators. This resource can help support future research on digital climate communication and the ethical risk of algorithmically amplified narratives and generative media.

The Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (ENEM) is a pivotal test for Brazilian students, required for admission to a significant number of universities in Brazil. The test consists of four objective high-school level tests on Math, Humanities, Natural Sciences and Languages, and one writing essay. Students' answers to the test and to the accompanying socioeconomic status questionnaire are made public every year (albeit anonymized) due to transparency policies from the Brazilian Government. In the context of large language models (LLMs), these data lend themselves nicely to comparing different groups of humans with AI, as we can have access to human and machine answer distributions. We leverage these characteristics of the ENEM dataset and compare GPT-3.5 and 4, and MariTalk, a model trained using Portuguese data, to humans, aiming to ascertain how their answers relate to real societal groups and what that may reveal about the model biases. We divide the human groups by using socioeconomic status (SES), and compare their answer distribution with LLMs for each question and for the essay. We find no significant biases when comparing LLM performance to humans on the multiple-choice Brazilian Portuguese tests, as the distance between model and human answers is mostly determined by the human accuracy. A similar conclusion is found by looking at the generated text as, when analyzing the essays, we observe that human and LLM essays differ in a few key factors, one being the choice of words where model essays were easily separable from human ones. The texts also differ syntactically, with LLM generated essays exhibiting, on average, smaller sentences and less thought units, among other differences. These results suggest that, for Brazilian Portuguese in the ENEM context, LLM outputs represent no group of humans, being significantly different from the answers from Brazilian students across all tests. The appendices may be found at https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.05035.

Politicization is a social phenomenon studied by political science characterized by the extent to which ideas and facts are given a political tone. A range of topics, such as climate change, religion and vaccines has been subject to increasing politicization in the media and social media platforms. In this work, we propose a computational method for assessing politicization in online conversations based on topic shifts, i.e., the degree to which people switch topics in online conversations. The intuition is that topic shifts from a non-political topic to politics are a direct measure of politicization – making something political, and that the more people switch conversations to politics, the more they perceive politics as playing a vital role in their daily lives. A fundamental challenge that must be addressed when one studies politicization in social media is that, a priori, any topic may be politicized. Hence, any keyword-based method or even machine learning approaches that rely on topic labels to classify topics are expensive to run and potentially ineffective. Instead, we learn from a seed of political keywords and use Positive-Unlabeled (PU) Learning to detect political comments in reaction to non-political news articles posted on Twitter, YouTube, and TikTok during the 2022 Brazilian presidential elections. Our findings indicate that all platforms show evidence of politicization as discussion around topics adjacent to politics such as economy, crime and drugs tend to shift to politics. Even the least politicized topics had the rate in which their topics shift to politics increased in the lead up to the elections and after other political events in Brazil – an evidence of politicization. The code is available at https://github.com/marceloslo/Topic-Shifts-as-a-Proxy-for-Assessing-Politicization-in-Social-Media.