Mean field games (MFGs) tractably model behavior in large agent populations. The literature on learning MFG equilibria typically focuses on finding Nash equilibria (NE), which assume perfectly rational agents and are hence implausible in many realistic situations. To overcome these limitations, we incorporate bounded rationality into MFGs by leveraging the well-known concept of quantal response equilibria (QRE). Two novel types of MFG QRE enable the modeling of large agent populations where individuals only noisily estimate the true objective. We also introduce a second source of bounded rationality to MFGs by restricting the agents' planning horizon. The resulting novel receding horizon (RH) MFGs are combined with QRE and existing approaches to model different aspects of bounded rationality in MFGs. We formally define MFG QRE and RH MFGs and compare them to existing equilibrium concepts such as entropy-regularized NE. Subsequently, we design generalized fixed point iteration and fictitious play algorithms to learn QRE and RH equilibria. After a theoretical analysis, we give different examples to evaluate the capabilities of our learning algorithms and outline practical differences between the equilibrium concepts.

We propose a novel, tractable latent state inference scheme for Markov jump processes, for which exact inference is often intractable. Our approach is based on an entropic matching framework that can be embedded into the well-known expectation propagation algorithm. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by providing closed-form results for a simple family of approximate distributions and apply it to the general class of chemical reaction networks, which are a crucial tool for modeling in systems biology. Moreover, we derive closed-form expressions for point estimation of the underlying parameters using an approximate expectation maximization procedure. We evaluate our method across various chemical reaction networks and compare it to multiple baseline approaches, demonstrating superior performance in approximating the mean of the posterior process. Finally, we discuss the limitations of our method and potential avenues for future improvement, highlighting its promising direction for addressing complex continuous-time Bayesian inference problems.

This work proposes a decision-making framework for partially observable systems in continuous time with discrete state and action spaces. As optimal decision-making becomes intractable for large state spaces we employ approximation methods for the filtering and the control problem that scale well with an increasing number of states. Specifically, we approximate the high-dimensional filtering distribution by projecting it onto a parametric family of distributions, and integrate it into a control heuristic based on the fully observable system to obtain a scalable policy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several partially observed systems, including queueing systems and chemical reaction networks.