We describe a decision-theoretic methodology for case-based reasoning in diagnosis and troubleshooting applications. The system utilizes a special-structure Bayesian network to represent diagnostic cases, with nodes representing issues, causes, and symptoms. Dirichlet distributions are assessed at knowledge acquisition time to indicate the strength of relationships between variables. During a diagnosis session, a relevant subnetwork is extracted from a Bayesian-network database that describes a very large number of diagnostic interactions and cases. The constructed network is used to make recommendations regarding possible repairs and additional observations, based on an estimate of expected repair costs. As cases are resolved, observations of issues, causes, symptoms, and the success of repairs are recorded. New variables are added to the database, and the probabilities associated with variables already in the database are updated. In this way, the inferential behavior of system adjusts to the characteristics of the target population of users. We show how these elements work together in a cycle of troubleshooting tasks, and describe some results from a pilot system implementation and deployment.

A Bayesian network is a probabilistic representation for uncertain relationships, which has proven to be useful for modeling real-world problems. When there are many potential causes of a given effect, however, both probability assessment and inference using a Bayesian network can be difficult. In this paper, we describe causal independence, a collection of conditional independence assertions and functional relationships that are often appropriate to apply to the representation of the uncertain interactions between causes and effect. We show how the use of causal independence in a Bayesian network can greatly simplify probability assessment as well as probabilistic inference.

A mechanism for performing probabilistic reasoning in influence diagrams using interval rather than point-valued probabilities is described. Procedures for operations corresponding to conditional expectation and Bayesian conditioning in influence diagrams are derived where lower bounds on probabilities are stored at each node. The resulting bounds for the transformed diagram are shown to be the tightest possible within the class of constraints on probability distributions that can be expressed exclusively as lower bounds on the component probabilities of the diagram. Sequences of these operations can be performed to answer probabilistic queries with indeterminacies in the input and for performing sensitivity analysis on an influence diagram. The storage requirements and computational complexity of this approach are comparable to those for point-valued probabilistic inference mechanisms.>

We describe a representation and set of inference techniques for the dynamic construction of probabilistic and decision‐theoretic models expressed as networks. In contrast to probabilistic reasoning schemes that rely on fixed models, we develop a representation that implicitly encodes a large number of possible model structures. Based on a particular query and state of information, the system constructs a customized belief net for that particular situation. We develop an interpretation of the network construction process in terms of the implicit networks encoded in the database. A companion method for constructing belief networks with decisions and values (decision networks) is also developed that uses sensitivity analysis to focus the model building process. Finally, we discuss some issues of control of model construction and describe examples of constructing networks.

Despite their different perspectives, artificial intelligence (AI) and the disciplines of decision science have common roots and strive for similar goals. This paper surveys the potential for addressing problems in representation, inference, knowledge engineering, and explanation within the decision-theoretic framework. Recent analyses of the restrictions of several traditional AI reasoning techniques, coupled with the development of more tractable and expressive decision-theoretic representation and inference strategies, have stimulated renewed interest in decision theory and decision analysis. We describe early experience with simple probabilistic schemes for automated reasoning, review the dominant expert-system paradigm, and survey some recent research at the crossroads of AI and decision science. In particular, we present the belief network and influence diagram representations. Finally, we discuss issues that have not been studied in detail within the expert-systems setting, yet are crucial for developing theoretical methods and computational architectures for automated reasoners.