Abstract We propose a new sequential decision-making setting, combining key aspects of two established online learning problems with bandit feedback. The optimal action to play at any given moment is contingent on an underlying changing state that is not directly observable by the agent. Each state is associated with a context distribution, possibly corrupted, allowing the agent to identify the state. Furthermore, states evolve in a Markovian fashion, providing useful information to estimate the current state via state history. In the proposed problem setting, we tackle the challenge of deciding on which of the two sources of information the agent should base its action selection. We present an algorithm that uses a referee to dynamically combine the policies of a contextual bandit and a multi-armed bandit. We capture the time-correlation of states through iteratively learning the action-reward transition model, allowing for efficient exploration of actions. Our setting is motivated by adaptive mobile health (mHealth) interventions. Users transition through different, time-correlated, but only partially observable internal states, determining their current needs. The side information associated with each internal state might not always be reliable, and standard approaches solely rely on the context risk of incurring high regret. Similarly, some users might exhibit weaker correlations between subsequent states, leading to approaches that solely rely on state transitions risking the same. We analyze our setting and algorithm in terms of regret lower bound and upper bounds and evaluate our method on simulated medication adherence intervention data and several real-world data sets, showing improved empirical performance compared to several popular algorithms.

Exploring the missing values is an essential but challenging issue due to the complex latent spatio-temporal correlation and dynamic nature of time series. Owing to the outstanding performance in dealing with structure learning potentials, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are often used to capture such complex spatio-temporal features in multivariate time series. However, these data-driven models often fail to capture the essential spatio-temporal relationships when significant signal corruption occurs. Additionally, calculating the high-order neighbor nodes in these models is of high computational complexity. To address these problems, we propose a novel higher-order spatio-temporal physics-incorporated GNN (HSPGNN). Firstly, the dynamic Laplacian matrix can be obtained by the spatial attention mechanism. Then, the generic inhomogeneous partial differential equation (PDE) of physical dynamic systems is used to construct the dynamic higher-order spatio-temporal GNN adaptively to obtain the missing time series values. Moreover, we estimate the missing impact by Normalizing Flows (NF) to evaluate the importance of each node in the graph for better explainability. Experimental results on four benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of HSPGNN and the superior performance when combining various order neighbor nodes. Also, graph-like optical flow, dynamic graphs, and missing impact can be obtained naturally by HSPGNN, which provides better dynamic analysis and explanation than traditional data-driven models.

This paper presents a comprehensive empirical investigation into the interactions between various randomization techniques in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and their impact on learning performance. It is well-established that injecting randomness into the training process of DNNs, through various approaches, at different stages, is often beneficial for reducing overfitting and improving generalization. Nonetheless, the interactions between randomness techniques such as weight noise, dropout, and many others remain poorly understood. Consequently, it is challenging to determine which methods can be effectively combined to optimize DNN performance. To address this issue, we categorize the existing randomness techniques into four key types: injection of noise/randomness at the data, model structure, optimization or learning stage. We use this classification to identify gaps in the current coverage of potential mechanisms for the introduction of randomness, leading to proposing two new techniques: adding noise to the loss function and random masking of the gradient updates. In our empirical study, we employ a Particle Swarm Optimizer (PSO) for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) to explore the space of possible configurations to determine where and how much randomness should be injected to maximize DNN performance. We assess the impact of various types and levels of randomness for DNN architectures across standard computer vision benchmarks: MNIST, FASHION-MNIST, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100. Across more than 30 000 evaluated configurations, we perform a detailed examination of the interactions between randomness techniques and their combined impact on DNN performance. Our findings reveal that randomness through data augmentation and in weight initialization are the main contributors to performance improvement. Additionally, correlation analysis demonstrates that different optimizers, such as Adam and Gradient Descent with Momentum, prefer distinct types of randomization during the training process. A GitHub repository with the complete implementation and generated dataset is available1.

The field of Explainable Predictive Maintenance (PM) is concerned with developing methods that can clarify how AI systems operate in the PM domain. One of the challenges of creating maintenance plans is integrating AI output with human decision-making pro- cesses and expertise. For AI to be helpful and trustworthy, fault predictions must be contextualized and easily comprehensible to humans. This involves providing tailored explanations to different actors depending on their roles and needs. For example, engineers can be connected to technical installation blueprints, while man- agers can evaluate system downtime costs, and lawyers can assess safety-threatening failures' potential liability. In many industries, black-box AI systems analyze sensor data to predict failures by detecting anomalies and deviations from typical behavior with impressive accuracy. However, PM is just one part of a broader context that aims to identify the most probable causes, develop a recovery plan, and estimate remaining useful life while providing alternative solutions. Achieving this requires complex interactions among various actors in industrial and decision-making processes. Our tutorial explores current trends, and promising research directions in Explainable AI (XAI) relevant to Explainable Predictive Maintenance (XPM), and future challenges and open issues on this topic. We will also present three case studies that highlight XPM's challenges in bus and train operations and steel factories.

Abstract In contextual anomaly detection, an object is only considered anomalous within a specific context. Most existing methods use a single context based on a set of user-specified contextual features. However, identifying the right context can be very challenging in practice, especially in datasets with a large number of attributes. Furthermore, in real-world systems, there might be multiple anomalies that occur in different contexts and, therefore, require a combination of several “useful” contexts to unveil them. In this work, we propose a novel approach, called wisdom of the contexts (WisCon), to effectively detect complex contextual anomalies in situations where the true contextual and behavioral attributes are unknown. Our method constructs an ensemble of multiple contexts, with varying importance scores, based on the assumption that not all useful contexts are equally so. We estimate the importance of each context using an active learning approach with a novel query strategy. Experiments show that WisCon significantly outperforms existing baselines in different categories (i.e., active learning methods, unsupervised contextual and non-contextual anomaly detectors) on 18 datasets. Furthermore, the results support our initial hypothesis that there is no single perfect context that successfully uncovers all kinds of contextual anomalies, and leveraging the “wisdom” of multiple contexts is necessary.

Batteries are a safety-critical and the most expensive component for electric vehicles (EVs). To ensure the reliability of the EVs in operation, it is crucial to monitor the state of health of those batteries. Monitoring their deterioration is also relevant to the sustainability of the transport solutions, through creating an efficient strategy for utilizing the remaining capacity of the battery and its second life. Electric buses, similar to other EVs, come in many different variants, including different configurations and operating conditions. Developing new degradation models for each existing combination of settings can become challenging from different perspectives such as unavailability of failure data for novel settings, heterogeneity in data, low amount of data available for less popular configurations, and lack of sufficient engineering knowledge. Therefore, being able to automatically transfer a machine learning model to new settings is crucial. More concretely, the aim of this work is to extract features that are invariant across different settings. In this study, we propose an evolutionary method, called genetic algorithm for domain invariant features (GADIF), that selects a set of features to be used for training machine learning models, in such a way as to maximize the invariance across different settings. A Genetic Algorithm, with each chromosome being a binary vector signaling selection of features, is equipped with a specific fitness function encompassing both the task performance and domain shift. We contrast the performance, in migrating to unseen domains, of our method against a number of classical feature selection methods without any transfer learning mechanism. Moreover, in the experimental result section, we analyze how different features are selected under different settings. The results show that using invariant features leads to a better generalization of the machine learning models to an unseen domain.

In the era of big data, considerable research focus is being put on designing efficient algorithms capable of learning and extracting high-level knowledge from ubiquitous data streams in an online fashion. While, most existing algorithms assume that data samples are drawn from a stationary distribution, several complex environments deal with data streams that are subject to change over time. Taking this aspect into consideration is an important step towards building truly aware and intelligent systems. In this paper, we propose GNG-A, an adaptive method for incremental unsupervised learning from evolving data streams experiencing various types of change. The proposed method maintains a continuously updated network (graph) of neurons by extending the Growing Neural Gas algorithm with three complementary mechanisms, allowing it to closely track both gradual and sudden changes in the data distribution. First, an adaptation mechanism handles local changes where the distribution is only non-stationary in some regions of the feature space. Second, an adaptive forgetting mechanism identifies and removes neurons that become irrelevant due to the evolving nature of the stream. Finally, a probabilistic evolution mechanism creates new neurons when there is a need to represent data in new regions of the feature space. The proposed method is demonstrated for anomaly and novelty detection in non-stationary environments. Results show that the method handles different data distributions and efficiently reacts to various types of change.

An approach for intelligent monitoring of mobile cyberphysical systems is described, based on consensus among distributed self-organised agents. Its usefulness is experimentally demonstrated over a long-time case study in an example domain: a fleet of city buses. The proposed solution combines several techniques, allowing for life-long learning under computational and communication constraints. The presented work is a step towards autonomous knowledge discovery in a domain where data volumes are increasing, the complexity of systems is growing, and dedicating human experts to build fault detection and diagnostic models for all possible faults is not economically viable. The embedded, self-organised agents operate on-board the cyberphysical systems, modelling their states and communicating them wirelessly to a back-office application. Those models are subsequently compared against each other to find systems which deviate from the consensus. In this way the group (e.g., a fleet of vehicles) is used to provide a standard, or to describe normal behaviour, together with its expected variability under particular operating conditions. The intention is to detect faults without the need for human experts to anticipate them beforehand. This can be used to build up a knowledge base that accumulates over the life-time of the systems. The approach is demonstrated using data collected during regular operation of a city bus fleet over the period of almost 4 years.