We address the setting of Proxy Causal Learning (PCL), which has the goal of estimating causal effects from observed data in the presence of hidden confounding. Proxy methods accomplish this task using two proxy variables related to the latent confounder: a treatment proxy (related to the treatment) and an outcome proxy (related to the outcome). Two approaches have been proposed to perform causal effect estimation given proxy variables; however only one of these has found mainstream acceptance, since the other was understood to require density ratio estimation - a challenging task in high dimensions. In the present work, we propose a practical and effective implementation of the second approach, which bypasses explicit density ratio estimation and is suitable for continuous and high-dimensional treatments. We employ kernel ridge regression to derive estimators, resulting in simple closed-form solutions for dose-response and conditional dose-response curves, along with consistency guarantees. Our methods empirically demonstrate superior or comparable performance to existing frameworks on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We consider the problem of causal effect estimation with an unobserved confounder, where we observe a single proxy variable that is associated with the confounder. Although it has been shown that the recovery of an average causal effect is impossible in general from a single proxy variable, we show that causal recovery is possible if the outcome is generated deterministically. This generalizes existing work on causal methods with a single proxy variable to the continuous treatment setting. We propose two kernel-based methods for this setting: the first based on the two-stage regression approach, and the second based on a maximum moment restriction approach. We prove that both approaches can consistently estimate the causal effect, and we empirically demonstrate that we can successfully recover the causal effect on challenging synthetic benchmarks.

We study the problem of causal function estimation in the Proxy Causal Learning (PCL) framework, where confounders are not observed but proxies for the confounders are available. Two main approaches have been proposed: outcome bridge-based and treatment bridge-based methods. In this work, we propose two kernel-based doubly robust estimators that combine the strengths of both approaches, and naturally handle continuous and high-dimensional variables. Our identification strategy builds on a recent density ratio-free method for treatment bridge-based PCL; furthermore, in contrast to previous approaches, it does not require indicator functions or kernel smoothing over the treatment variable. These properties make it especially well-suited for continuous or high-dimensional treatments. By using kernel mean embeddings, we propose the first density-ratio free doubly robust estimators for proxy causal learning, which have closed form solutions and strong uniform consistency guarantees. Our estimators outperform existing methods on PCL benchmarks, including a prior doubly robust method that requires both kernel smoothing and density ratio estimation.

Similarity learning is a general problem to elicit useful representations by predicting the relationship between a pair of patterns. This problem is related to various important preprocessing tasks such as metric learning, kernel learning, and contrastive learning. A classifier built upon the representations is expected to perform well in downstream classification; however, little theory has been given in literature so far and thereby the relationship between similarity and classification has remained elusive. Therefore, we tackle a fundamental question: can similarity information provably leads a model to perform well in downstream classification? In this paper, we reveal that a product-type formulation of similarity learning is strongly related to an objective of binary classification. We further show that these two different problems are explicitly connected by an excess risk bound. Consequently, our results elucidate that similarity learning is capable of solving binary classification by directly eliciting a decision boundary.

We study a nonparametric approach to Bayesian computation via feature means, where the expectation of prior features is updated to yield expected posterior features, based on regression from kernel or neural net features of the observations. All quantities involved in the Bayesian update are learned from observed data, making the method entirely model-free. The resulting algorithm is a novel instance of a kernel Bayes’ rule (KBR). Our approach is based on importance weighting, which results in superior numerical stability to the existing approach to KBR, which requires operator inversion. We show the convergence of the estimator using a novel consistency analysis on the importance weighting estimator in the infinity norm. We evaluate our KBR on challenging synthetic benchmarks, including a filtering problem with a state-space model involving high dimensional image observations. The proposed method yields uniformly better empirical performance than the existing KBR, and competitive performance with other competing methods. We evaluate our KBR on challenging synthetic benchmarks, including a filtering problem with a state-space model involving high dimensional image observations. The proposed method yields uniformly better empirical performance than the existing KBR, and competitive performance with other competing methods.

We show that the popular reinforcement learning (RL) strategy of estimating the state-action value (Q-function) by minimizing the mean squared Bellman error leads to a regression problem with confounding, the inputs and output noise being correlated. Hence, direct minimization of the Bellman error can result in significantly biased Q-function estimates. We explain why fixing the target Q-network in Deep Q-Networks and Fitted Q Evaluation provides a way of overcoming this confounding, thus shedding new light on this popular but not well understood trick in the deep RL literature. An alternative approach to address confounding is to leverage techniques developed in the causality literature, notably instrumental variables (IV). We bring together here the literature on IV and RL by investigating whether IV approaches can lead to improved Q-function estimates. This paper analyzes and compares a wide range of recent IV methods in the context of offline policy evaluation (OPE), where the goal is to estimate the value of a policy using logged data only. By applying different IV techniques to OPE, we are not only able to recover previously proposed OPE methods such as model-based techniques but also to obtain competitive new techniques. We find empirically that state-of-the-art OPE methods are closely matched in performance by some IV methods such as AGMM, which were not developed for OPE. We open-source all our code and datasets at https://github.com/liyuan9988/IVOPEwithACME.

We develop a deep learning framework, spatio-temporal directed acyclic graph with attention mechanisms (ST-DAG-Att), to predict cognition and disease using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). This ST-DAG-Att framework comprises of two neural networks, (1) spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-graph-conv) to learn the spatial and temporal information of functional time series at multiple temporal and spatial graph scales, where the graph is represented by the brain functional network, the spatial convolution is over the space of this graph, and the temporal convolution is over the time dimension; (2) functional connectivity convolutional network (FC-conv) to learn functional connectivity features, where the functional connectivity is derived from embedded multi-scale fMRI time series and the convolutional operation is applied along both edge and node dimensions of the brain functional network. This framework also consists of an attention component, i.e., functional connectivity-based spatial attention (FC-SAtt), that generates a spatial attention map through learning the local dependency among high-level features of functional connectivity and emphasizing meaningful brain regions. Moreover, both the ST-graph-conv and FC-conv networks are designed as feed-forward models structured as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). Our experiments employ two large-scale datasets, Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD, n=7693) and Open Access Series of Imaging Study-3 (OASIS-3, n=1786). Our results show that the ST-DAG-Att model is generalizable from cognition prediction to age prediction. It is robust to independent samples obtained from different sites of the ABCD study. It outperforms the existing machine learning techniques, including support vector regression (SVR), elastic net's mixture with random forest, spatio-temporal graph convolution, and BrainNetCNN.

Proxy causal learning (PCL) is a method for estimating the causal effect of treatments on outcomes in the presence of unobserved confounding, using proxies (structured side information) for the confounder. This is achieved via two-stage regression: in the first stage, we model relations among the treatment and proxies; in the second stage, we use this model to learn the effect of treatment on the outcome, given the context provided by the proxies. PCL guarantees recovery of the true causal effect, subject to identifiability conditions. We propose a novel method for PCL, the deep feature proxy variable method (DFPV), to address the case where the proxies, treatments, and outcomes are high-dimensional and have nonlinear complex relationships, as represented by deep neural network features. We show that DFPV outperforms recent state-of-the-art PCL methods on challenging synthetic benchmarks, including settings involving high dimensional image data. Furthermore, we show that PCL can be applied to off-policy evaluation for the confounded bandit problem, in which DFPV also exhibits competitive performance.

We study the problem of stochastic multiple-arm identification, where an agent sequentially explores a size-[Formula: see text] subset of arms (also known as a super arm) from given [Formula: see text] arms and tries to identify the best super arm. Most work so far has considered the semi-bandit setting, where the agent can observe the reward of each pulled arm or assumed each arm can be queried at each round. However, in real-world applications, it is costly or sometimes impossible to observe a reward of individual arms. In this study, we tackle the full-bandit setting, where only a noisy observation of the total sum of a super arm is given at each pull. Although our problem can be regarded as an instance of the best arm identification in linear bandits, a naive approach based on linear bandits is computationally infeasible since the number of super arms [Formula: see text] is exponential. To cope with this problem, we first design a polynomial-time approximation algorithm for a 0-1 quadratic programming problem arising in confidence ellipsoid maximization. Based on our approximation algorithm, we propose a bandit algorithm whose computation time is [Formula: see text](log [Formula: see text]), thereby achieving an exponential speedup over linear bandit algorithms. We provide a sample complexity upper bound that is still worst-case optimal. Finally, we conduct experiments on large-scale data sets with more than 10[Formula: see text] super arms, demonstrating the superiority of our algorithms in terms of both the computation time and the sample complexity.

We formulate and study a novel multi-armed bandit problem called the qualitative dueling bandit (QDB) problem, where an agent observes not numeric but qualitative feedback by pulling each arm. We employ the same regret as the dueling bandit (DB) problem where the duel is carried out by comparing the qualitative feedback. Although we can naively use classic DB algorithms for solving the QDB problem, this reduction significantly worsens the performance—actually, in the QDB problem, the probability that one arm wins the duel over another arm can be directly estimated without carrying out actual duels. In this paper1, we propose such direct algorithms for the QDB problem. Our theoretical analysis shows that the proposed algorithms significantly outperform DB algorithms by incorporating the qualitative feedback, and experimental results also demonstrate vast improvement over the existing DB algorithms.

Uncoupled regression is the problem to learn a model from unlabeled data and the set of target values while the correspondence between them is unknown. Such a situation arises in predicting anonymized targets that involve sensitive information, e.g., one's annual income. Since existing methods for uncoupled regression often require strong assumptions on the true target function, and thus, their range of applications is limited, we introduce a novel framework that does not require such assumptions in this paper. Our key idea is to utilize \emph{pairwise comparison data, which consists of pairs of unlabeled data that we know which one has a larger target value. Such pairwise comparison data is easy to collect, as typically discussed in the learning-to-rank scenario, and does not break the anonymity of data. We propose two practical methods for uncoupled regression from pairwise comparison data and show that the learned regression model converges to the optimal model with the optimal parametric convergence rate when the target variable distributes uniformly. Moreover, we empirically show that for linear models the proposed methods are comparable to ordinary supervised regression with labeled data.

We propose the first fully-adaptive algorithm for pure exploration in linear bandits—the task to find the arm with the largest expected reward, which depends on an unknown parameter linearly. While existing methods partially or entirely fix sequences of arm selections before observing rewards, our method adaptively changes the arm selection strategy based on past observations at each round. We show our sample complexity matches the achievable lower bound up to a constant factor in an extreme case. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance of the methods by simulations based on both synthetic setting and real-world data, in which our method shows vast improvement over existing ones.

Typically, anchor-free localization is considered as a nonlinear programming problem in the existing literatures. However, the nonlinear programming algorithms can only achieve constrained optimization and the localization accuracy of such algorithms depends on the precision of initial coordinators, which are the inputs of the algorithm and usually obtained based on GPS. Due to this defect, the algorithm is invalid in GPS-denied area, such as indoor area, dense urban area and forest. In our research, we combined nonlinear programming algorithm with penalty function to solve this problem. Our simulation results show that the localization accuracy of proposed algorithm is not affected by the precision of the initial coordinators, even when the initial coordinators is set randomly. Performance comparisons are also presented to show the improvement of this algorithm.