Predictive modeling is the art of building statistical models that forecast probabilities and trends of future events. It has broad applications in industry across different domains. Some popular examples include user intention predictions, lead scoring, churn analysis, etc. In this tutorial, we will focus on the best practice of predictive modeling in the big data era and its applications in industry, with motivating examples across a range of business tasks and relevance products. We will start with an overview of how predictive modeling helps power and drive various key business use cases. We will introduce the essential concepts and state of the art in building end-to-end predictive modeling solutions, and discuss the challenges, key technologies, and lessons learned from our practice, including case studies of LinkedIn feed relevance and a platform for email response prediction. Moreover, we will discuss some practical solutions of building predictive modeling platform to scale the modeling efforts for data scientists and analysts, along with an overview of popular tools and platforms used across the industry.

Nowadays, a modern e-commerce company may have both online sales and offline sales departments. Normally, online sales attempt to sell in small quantities to individual customers through broadcasting a large amount of emails or promotion codes, which heavily rely on the designed backend algorithms. Offline sales, on the other hand, try to sell in much larger quantities to enterprise customers through contacts initiated by sales representatives, which are more costly compared to online sales. Unlike many previous research works focusing on machine learning algorithms to support online sales, this paper introduces an approach that utilizes heterogenous social networks to improve the effectiveness of offline sales. More specifically, we propose a two-phase framework, HeteroSales, which first constructs a company-to-company graph, a.k.a. Company Homophily Graph (CHG), from semantics based meta-path learning, and then adopts label propagation on the graph to predict promising companies that we may successfully close an offline deal with. Based on the statistical analysis on the world's largest professional social network, LinkedIn, we demonstrate interesting discoveries showing that not all the social connections in a heterogeneous social network are useful in this task. In other words, some proper data preprocessing is essential to ensure the effectiveness of offline sales. Finally, through the experiments on LinkedIn social network data and third-party offline sales records, we demonstrate the power of HereroSales to identify potential enterprise customers in offline sales.

Most time series data mining algorithms use similarity search as a core subroutine, and thus the time taken for similarity search is the bottleneck for virtually all time series data mining algorithms. The difficulty of scaling search to large datasets largely explains why most academic work on time series data mining has plateaued at considering a few millions of time series objects, while much of industry and science sits on billions of time series objects waiting to be explored. In this work we show that by using a combination of four novel ideas we can search and mine truly massive time series for the first time. We demonstrate the following extremely unintuitive fact; in large datasets we can exactly search under DTW much more quickly than the current state-of-the-art Euclidean distance search algorithms. We demonstrate our work on the largest set of time series experiments ever attempted. In particular, the largest dataset we consider is larger than the combined size of all of the time series datasets considered in all data mining papers ever published. We show that our ideas allow us to solve higher-level time series data mining problem such as motif discovery and clustering at scales that would otherwise be untenable. In addition to mining massive datasets, we will show that our ideas also have implications for real-time monitoring of data streams, allowing us to handle much faster arrival rates and/or use cheaper and lower powered devices than are currently possible.

Given the ubiquity of time series data, the data mining community has spent significant time investigating the best time series similarity measure to use for various tasks and domains. After more than a decade of extensive efforts, there is increasing evidence that Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is very difficult to beat. Given that, recent efforts have focused on making the intrinsically slow DTW algorithm faster. For the similarity-search task, an important subroutine in many data mining algorithms, significant progress has been made by replacing the vast majority of expensive DTW calculations with cheap-to-compute lower bound calculations. However, these lower bound based optimizations do not directly apply to clustering, and thus for some realistic problems, clustering with DTW can take days or weeks. In this work, we show that we can mitigate this untenable lethargy by casting DTW clustering as an anytime algorithm. At the heart of our algorithm is a novel data-adaptive approximation to DTW which can be quickly computed, and which produces approximations to DTW that are much better than the best currently known linear-time approximations. We demonstrate our ideas on real world problems showing that we can get virtually all the accuracy of a batch DTW clustering algorithm in a fraction of the time.

The increasing interest in archiving all of humankind's cultural artifacts has resulted in the digitization of millions of books, and soon a significant fraction of the world's books will be online. Most of the data in historical manuscripts is text, but there is also a significant fraction devoted to images. This fact has driven much of the recent increase in interest in query-by-content systems for images. While querying/indexing systems can undoubtedly be useful, we believe that the historical manuscript domain is finally ripe for true unsupervised discovery of patterns and regularities. To this end, we introduce an efficient and scalable system which can detect approximately repeated occurrences of shape patterns both within and between historical texts. We show that this ability to find repeated shapes allows automatic annotation of manuscripts, and allows users to trace the evolution of ideas. We demonstrate our ideas on datasets of scientific and cultural manuscripts dating back to the fourteenth century.

Time series motifs are sets of very similar subsequences of a long time series. They are of interest in their own right, and are also used as inputs in several higher-level data mining algorithms including classification, clustering, rule-discovery and summarization. In spite of extensive research in recent years, finding time series motifs exactly in massive databases is an open problem. Previous efforts either found approximate motifs or considered relatively small datasets residing in main memory . In this work, we leverage off previous work on pivot-based indexing to introduce a disk-aware algorithm to find time series motifs exactly in multi-gigabyte databases which contain on the order of tens of millions of time series. We have evaluated our algorithm on datasets from diverse areas including medicine, anthropology, computer networking and image processing and show that we can find interesting and meaningful motifs in datasets that are many orders of magnitude larger than anything considered before.

Rock art is an archaeological term for human-made markings on stone, including carved markings, known as petroglyphs, and painted markings, known as pictographs. It is believed that there are millions of petroglyphs in North America alone, and the study of this valued cultural resource has implications even beyond anthropology and history. Surprisingly, although image processing, information retrieval and data mining have had a large impact on many human endeavors, they have had essentially zero impact on the study of rock art. In this work we identify the reasons for this, and introduce a novel distance measure and algorithms which allow efficient and effective data mining of large collections of rock art.

Multivariate Time-Series (MTS) are ubiquitous, and are generated in areas as disparate as sensor recordings in aerospace systems, music and video streams, medical monitoring, and financial systems. Domain experts are often interested in searching for interesting multivariate patterns from these MTS databases which can contain up to several gigabytes of data. Surprisingly, research on MTS search is very limited. Most existing work only supports queries with the same length of data, or queries on a fixed set of variables. In this paper, we propose an efficient and flexible subsequence search framework for massive MTS databases, that, for the first time, enables querying on any subset of variables with arbitrary time delays between them. We propose two provably correct algorithms to solve this problem - (1) an R*-tree Based Search (RBS) which uses Minimum Bounding Rectangles (MBR) to organize the subsequences, and (2) a List Based Search (LBS) algorithm which uses sorted lists for indexing. We demonstrate the performance of these algorithms using two large MTS databases from the aviation domain, each containing several millions of observations. Both these tests show that our algorithms have very high prune rates (>;95%) thus needing actual disk access for only less than 5% of the observations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first flexible MTS search algorithm capable of subsequence search on any subset of variables. Moreover, MTS subsequence search has never been attempted on datasets of the size we have used in this paper.

Initiatives such as the Google Print Library Project and the Million Book Project have already archived more than ten million books in digital format, and within the next decade the majority of world's books will be online. Although most of the data will naturally be text, there will also be tens of millions of pages of images, many in color. While there is an active research community pursuing data mining of text from historical manuscripts, there has been very little work that exploits the rich color information which is often present. In this work we introduce a simple color measure which both addresses and exploits typical features of historical manuscripts. To enable the efficient mining of massive archives, we propose a tight lower bound to the measure. Beyond the fast similarity search, we show how this lower bound allows us to build several higher-level data mining tools, including motif discovery and link analyses. We demonstrate our ideas in several data mining tasks on manuscripts dating back to the fifteenth century.

Rock art is an archaeological term for human-made markings on stone. It is believed that there are millions of petroglyphs in North America alone, and the study of this valued cultural resource has implications even beyond anthropology and history. Surprisingly, although image processing, information retrieval and data mining have had large impacts on many human endeavors, they have had essentially zero impact on the study of rock art. In this work we identify the reasons for this, and introduce a novel distance measure and algorithms which allow efficient and effective data mining of large collections of rock art.

Time series motifs are pairs of individual time series, or subsequences of a longer time series, which are very similar to each other. As with their discrete analogues in computational biology, this similarity hints at structure which has been conserved for some reason and may therefore be of interest. Since the formalism of time series motifs in 2002, dozens of researchers have used them for diverse applications in many different domains. Because the obvious algorithm for computing motifs is quadratic in the number of items, more than a dozen approximate algorithms to discover motifs have been proposed in the literature. In this work, for the first time, we show a tractable exact algorithm to find time series motifs. As we shall show through extensive experiments, our algorithm is up to three orders of magnitude faster than brute-force search in large datasets. We further show that our algorithm is fast enough to be used as a subroutine in higher level data mining algorithms for anytime classification, near-duplicate detection and summarization, and we consider detailed case studies in domains as diverse as electroencephalograph interpretation and entomological telemetry data mining.