To build effective therapeutics, biologists iteratively mutate antibody sequences to improve binding and stability. Proposed mutations can be informed by previous measurements or by learning from large antibody databases to predict only typical antibodies. Unfortunately, the space of typical antibodies is enormous to search, and experiments often fail to find suitable antibodies on a budget. We introduce Clone-informed Bayesian Optimization (CloneBO), a Bayesian optimization procedure that efficiently optimizes antibodies in the lab by teaching a generative model how our immune system optimizes antibodies. Our immune system makes antibodies by iteratively evolving specific portions of their sequences to bind their target strongly and stably, resulting in a set of related, evolving sequences known as a *clonal family*. We train a large language model, CloneLM, on hundreds of thousands of clonal families and use it to design sequences with mutations that are most likely to optimize an antibody within the human immune system. We propose to guide our designs to fit previous measurements with a twisted sequential Monte Carlo procedure. We show that CloneBO optimizes antibodies substantially more efficiently than previous methods in realistic *in silico* experiments and designs stronger and more stable binders in *in vitro* wet lab experiments.

To understand how genetic variants in human genomes manifest in phenotypes - traits like height or diseases like asthma - geneticists have sequenced and measured hundreds of thousands of individuals. Geneticists use this data to build models that predict how a genetic variant impacts phenotype given genomic features of the variant, like DNA accessibility or the presence of nearby DNA-bound proteins. As more data and features become available, one might expect predictive models to improve. Unfortunately, training these models is bottlenecked by the need to solve expensive linear algebra problems because variants in the genome are correlated with nearby variants, requiring inversion of large matrices. Previous methods have therefore been restricted to fitting small models, and fitting simplified summary statistics, rather than the full likelihood of the statistical model. In this paper, we leverage modern fast linear algebra techniques to develop DeepWAS (Deep genome Wide Association Studies), a method to train large and flexible neural network predictive models to optimize likelihood. Surprisingly, we find that larger models only improve performance when using our full likelihood approach; when trained by fitting traditional summary statistics, larger models perform no better than small ones. We find larger models trained on more features make better predictions, potentially improving disease predictions and therapeutic target identification.

Discrete diffusion models, like continuous diffusion models, generate high-quality samples by gradually undoing noise applied to datapoints with a Markov process. Gradual generation in theory comes with many conceptual benefits; for example, inductive biases can be incorporated into the noising Markov process. In practice, however, the consistently best performing discrete diffusion model is masking diffusion, which does not denoise gradually. Here we explain the superior performance of masking diffusion by noting that it makes use of a fundamental difference between continuous and discrete Markov processes: discrete Markov processes evolve by discontinuous jumps at a fixed rate and, unlike other discrete diffusion models, masking diffusion builds in the known distribution of jump times and only learns where to jump to. We show that we can similarly bake in the known distribution of jump times into any discrete diffusion model. The resulting models -- schedule-conditioned diffusion (SCUD) -- generalize classical discrete diffusion and masking diffusion. By applying SCUD to models with noising processes that incorporate inductive biases on images, text, and protein data, we build diffusion models that outperform masking.

Applying machine learning to biological sequences---DNA, RNA and protein---has enormous potential to advance human health and environmental sustainability. To support such high-stakes applications, it is important to develop models and evaluations that not only capture underlying biology, but also have theoretical guarantees of reliability and performance. In this article, we analyze kernel methods for biological sequences, including both hand-crafted kernels and deep neural network-based kernels. We show that popular biological kernels can severely fail at learning functions or distinguishing distributions. We then develop modified kernels that (1) are universal, characteristic, and metrize the space of distributions, and (2) preserve the underlying biological inductive biases and domain knowledge embedded in the original kernel. Our results rest on novel proof techniques for kernels that handle the structure of biological sequence space--discrete, variable length sequences--and biological notions of sequence similarity. We illustrate our theoretical results in simulation and on real biological data sets.

To make accurate predictions, understand mechanisms, and design interventions in systems of many variables, we wish to learn causal graphs from large scale data. Unfortunately the space of all possible causal graphs is enormous so scalably and accurately searching for the best fit to the data is a challenge. In principle we could substantially decrease the search space, or learn the graph entirely, by testing the conditional independence of variables. However, deciding if two variables are adjacent in a causal graph may require an exponential number of tests. Here we build a scalable and flexible method to evaluate if two variables are adjacent in a causal graph, the Differentiable Adjacency Test (DAT). DAT replaces an exponential number of tests with a provably equivalent relaxed problem. It then solves this problem by training two neural networks. We build a graph learning method based on DAT, DAT-Graph, that can also learn from data with interventions. DAT-Graph can learn graphs of 1000 variables with state of the art accuracy. Using the graph learned by DAT-Graph, we also build models that make much more accurate predictions of the effects of interventions on large scale RNA sequencing data.

We propose a set of kernel-based tools to evaluate the designs and tune the hyperparameters of conditional sequence models, with a focus on problems in computational biology. The backbone of our tools is a new measure of discrepancy between the true conditional distribution and the model's estimate, called the Augmented Conditional Maximum Mean Discrepancy (ACMMD). Provided that the model can be sampled from, the ACMMD can be estimated unbiasedly from data to quantify absolute model fit, integrated within hypothesis tests, and used to evaluate model reliability. We demonstrate the utility of our approach by analyzing a popular protein design model, ProteinMPNN. We are able to reject the hypothesis that ProteinMPNN fits its data for various protein families, and tune the model's temperature hyperparameter to achieve a better fit.

Generative models of biological sequences are a powerful tool for learning from complex sequence data, predicting the effects of mutations, and designing novel biomolecules with desired properties. To evaluate generative models it is important to accurately measure differences between high-dimensional distributions. In this paper we propose the “KSD-B”, a novel divergence measure for distributions over biological sequences that is based on the kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD). The KSD-B can be evaluated even when the normalizing constant of the model is unknown; it allows for variable length sequences and can take into account biological notions of sequence distance. Unlike previous KSDs over discrete spaces the KSD-B (a) is theoretically guaranteed to detect convergence and non-convergence of distributions over sequence space and (b) can be efficiently estimated in practice. We demonstrate the advantages of the KSD-B on problems with synthetic and real data, and apply it to measure the fit of state-of-the-art machine learning models. Overall, the KSD-B enables rigorous evaluation of generative biological sequence models, allowing the accuracy of models, sampling procedures, and library designs to be checked reliably.

Generative probabilistic models of biological sequences have widespread existing and potential applications in analyzing, predicting and designing proteins, RNA and genomes. To test the predictions of such a model experimentally, the standard approach is to draw samples, and then synthesize each sample individually in the laboratory. However, often orders of magnitude more sequences can be experimentally assayed than can be affordably synthesized individually. In this article, we propose instead to use stochastic synthesis methods, such as mixed nucleotides or trimers. We describe a black-box algorithm for optimizing stochastic synthesis protocols to produce approximate samples from any target generative model. We establish theoretical bounds on the method’s performance, and validate it in simulation using held-out sequence-to-function predictors trained on real experimental data. We show that using optimized stochastic synthesis protocols in place of individual synthesis can increase the number of hits in protein engineering efforts by orders of magnitude, e.g. from zero to a thousand.

Understanding the consequences of mutation for molecular fitness and function is a fundamental problem in biology. Recently, generative probabilistic models have emerged as a powerful tool for estimating fitness from evolutionary sequence data, with accuracy sufficient to predict both laboratory measurements of function and disease risk in humans, and to design novel functional proteins. Existing techniques rest on an assumed relationship between density estimation and fitness estimation, a relationship that we interrogate in this article. We prove that fitness is not identifiable from observational sequence data alone, placing fundamental limits on our ability to disentangle fitness landscapes from phylogenetic history. We show on real datasets that perfect density estimation in the limit of infinite data would, with high confidence, result in poor fitness estimation; current models perform accurate fitness estimation because of, not despite, misspecification. Our results challenge the conventional wisdom that bigger models trained on bigger datasets will inevitably lead to better fitness estimation, and suggest novel estimation strategies going forward.

Generative probabilistic modeling of biological sequences has widespread existing and potential use across biology and biomedicine, particularly given advances in high-throughput sequencing, synthesis and editing. However, we still lack methods with nucleotide resolution that are tractable at the scale of whole genomes and that can achieve high predictive accuracy in theory and practice. In this article we propose a new generative sequence model, the Bayesian embedded autoregressive (BEAR) model, which uses a parametric autoregressive model to specify a conjugate prior over a nonparametric Bayesian Markov model. We explore, theoretically and empirically, applications of BEAR models to a variety of statistical problems including density estimation, robust parameter estimation, goodness-of-fit tests, and two-sample tests. We prove rigorous asymptotic consistency results including nonparametric posterior concentration rates. We scale inference in BEAR models to datasets containing tens of billions of nucleotides. On genomic, transcriptomic, and metagenomic sequence data we show that BEAR models provide large increases in predictive performance as compared to parametric autoregressive models, among other results. BEAR models offer a flexible and scalable framework, with theoretical guarantees, for building and critiquing generative models at the whole genome scale.