Urban events, such as hurricanes, floods, and epidemic outbreaks, usually have a significant impact on crowd behaviors that may dramatically change people’s mobility patterns, interaction manners, and etc. Accurately foreseeing the abnormal crowd behaviors triggered by urban events can help authorities to dynamically schedule urban resources and services, such as providing shuttle buses, temporal shelters, and psychological first aid. However, traditional crowd behavior prediction models tend to learn regular trends and patterns of crowd traffic, and usually fail to predict the abnormal traffic fluctuations triggered by urban events. In this work, we propose a context-aware framework to accurately predict event-triggered abnormal crowd traffic by explicitly modeling event contexts and their impact. We start by training a state-of-the-art spatiotemporal multi-graph model (MG) leveraging a multi-graph convolutional network (MGCN) to model city-wide venues and their connections, as well as gated recurrent unit (GRU) to capture the crowd traffic patterns within venues. In order to model the time-occasional impact of sudden influential event context (e.g., weather conditions), we propose a multi-task fusion diagram to co-train the MG model by learning a temporal impact embedding with an attention mechanism and recurrent neural network to obtain the MG-MT model. In order to model the hyper-space impact of irregularly distributed event context (e.g., epicenters and trajectories), we propose a multi-view fusion diagram to fine-tune the above-mentioned model by learning a spatial impact graph with a stimulus-response mechanism to obtain the spatiotemporal crowd traffic model (STORM). Experiments using real-world urban data collected from Xiamen, China show that our approach improves over the state-of-the-art baseline by more than 6% in predicting crowd traffic and by more than 40% in the abnormal crowd traffic part.

Bike-sharing systems have been deployed globally. One of the key issues for high-quality bike-sharing systems is to rebalance city-wide stations to maintain bike availability. Traditional strategies, such as repositioning bikes by trucks and volunteers based on historical riding records, usually operate in fixed paths and limited capacities, lacking the flexibility to cope with the highly dynamic and context dependent riding demands, and usually suffer from high costs and long delays. In this work, we propose RedPacketBike, an incentive-driven, crowd-based station rebalancing framework to effectively recruit participants from hybrid fleets (e.g., volunteer riders and hired trucks) based on the accurate forecast of bike demand leveraging deep learning techniques. First, we propose a spatiotemporal clustering method to extract bike demand hotspots from fluctuating bike usage data. Then, we build a context-aware deep neural network named BikeNet to forecast the trends of bike demand hotspots, simultaneously modeling the spatial correlations by graph convolution networks (GCN), the temporal dependencies by long short-term memory networks (RNN), and the contextual factors by autoencoders (AE). Finally, we propose a reinforcement-learning-based method to find optimal station rebalancing schemes by generating station rebalancing tasks with an integer linear programming (ILP) algorithm and allocating tasks to participants from hybrid fleets with dynamic incentive designs and reward expectations. Experiments using real-world bike-sharing system data collected from Citi Bike in New York City and Mobike in Xiamen City validate the performance of our framework, achieving a demand forecast error below 4.171 measured in MAE, and a 17.2% improvement of station availability by simulations with real-world parameter settings, outperforming the state-of-the-art baselines.