Abstract Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the nondeterminism such that the probability to reach an error state is above a threshold? We consider an understudied extension that relates different reachability probabilities, such as: Is there a scheduler such that two sets of states are reached with different probabilities? These questions appear naturally in the design of randomized algorithms and in various security applications. We provide a tractable algorithm for many variations of this problem, while proving computational hardness of some others. An implementation of our algorithm beats solvers for more general probabilistic hyperlogics by orders of magnitude, on the subset of their benchmarks that are within our fragment.

Counterfactuals are widely used in AI to explain how minimal changes to a model’s input can lead to a different output. However, established methods for computing counterfactuals typically focus on one-step decision-making, and are not directly applicable to sequential decision-making tasks. This paper fills this gap by introducing counterfactual strategies for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). During MDP execution, a strategy decides which of the enabled actions (with known probabilistic effects) to execute next. Given an initial strategy that reaches an undesired outcome with a probability above some limit, we identify minimal changes to the initial strategy to reduce that probability below the limit. We encode such counterfactual strategies as solutions to non-linear optimization problems, and further extend our encoding to synthesize diverse counterfactual strategies. We evaluate our approach on four real-world datasets and demonstrate its practical viability in sophisticated sequential decision-making tasks.