Tabular data is foundational to predictive modeling in various crucial industries, including healthcare, finance, retail, sustainability, etc. Despite the progress made in specialized models, there is an increasing demand for universal models that can transfer knowledge, generalize from limited data, and follow human instructions. These are challenges that current tabular deep learning approaches have not fully tackled. Here we introduce Generative Tabular Learning (GTL), a novel framework that integrates the advanced functionalities of large language models (LLMs)-such as prompt-based zero-shot generalization and in-context learning-into tabular deep learning. GTL capitalizes on the pre-training of LLMs on diverse tabular data, enhancing their understanding of domain-specific knowledge, numerical sequences, and statistical dependencies critical for accurate predictions. Our empirical study spans 384 public datasets, rigorously analyzing GTL's convergence and scaling behaviors and assessing the impact of varied data templates. The GTL-enhanced LLaMA-2 model demonstrates superior zero-shot and in-context learning capabilities across numerous classification and regression tasks. Notably, it achieves this without fine-tuning, outperforming traditional methods and rivaling state-of-the-art models like GPT-4 in certain cases. Through GTL, we not only foster a deeper integration of LLMs' sophisticated abilities into tabular data comprehension and application but also offer a new training resource and a test bed for LLMs to enhance their ability to comprehend tabular data. To facilitate reproducible research, we release our code, data, and model checkpoints at https://github.com/microsoft/Industrial-Foundation-Models.

Delivering precise point and distributional forecasts across a spectrum of prediction horizons represents a significant and enduring challenge in the application of time-series forecasting within various industries.Prior research on developing deep learning models for time-series forecasting has often concentrated on isolated aspects, such as long-term point forecasting or short-term probabilistic estimations. This narrow focus may result in skewed methodological choices and hinder the adaptability of these models to uncharted scenarios.While there is a rising trend in developing universal forecasting models, a thorough understanding of their advantages and drawbacks, especially regarding essential forecasting needs like point and distributional forecasts across short and long horizons, is still lacking.In this paper, we present ProbTS, a benchmark tool designed as a unified platform to evaluate these fundamental forecasting needs and to conduct a rigorous comparative analysis of numerous cutting-edge studies from recent years.We dissect the distinctive data characteristics arising from disparate forecasting requirements and elucidate how these characteristics can skew methodological preferences in typical research trajectories, which often fail to fully accommodate essential forecasting needs.Building on this, we examine the latest models for universal time-series forecasting and discover that our analyses of methodological strengths and weaknesses are also applicable to these universal models.Finally, we outline the limitations inherent in current research and underscore several avenues for future exploration.

Numerous industrial sectors necessitate models capable of providing robust forecasts across various horizons. Despite the recent strides in crafting specific architectures for time-series forecasting and developing pre-trained universal models, a comprehensive examination of their capability in accommodating varied-horizon forecasting during inference is still lacking. This paper bridges this gap through the design and evaluation of the Elastic Time-Series Transformer (ElasTST). The ElasTST model incorporates a non-autoregressive design with placeholders and structured self-attention masks, warranting future outputs that are invariant to adjustments in inference horizons. A tunable version of rotary position embedding is also integrated into ElasTST to capture time-series-specific periods and enhance adaptability to different horizons. Additionally, ElasTST employs a multi-scale patch design, effectively integrating both fine-grained and coarse-grained information. During the training phase, ElasTST uses a horizon reweighting strategy that approximates the effect of random sampling across multiple horizons with a single fixed horizon setting. Through comprehensive experiments and comparisons with state-of-the-art time-series architectures and contemporary foundation models, we demonstrate the efficacy of ElasTST's unique design elements. Our findings position ElasTST as a robust solution for the practical necessity of varied-horizon forecasting.