Frontier AI developers are relying on layers of safeguards to protect against catastrophic misuse of AI systems. Anthropic guards their latest Claude 4 Opus model using one such defense pipeline, and other frontier developers including Google DeepMind and OpenAI pledge to soon deploy similar defenses. However, the security of such pipelines is unclear, with limited prior work evaluating or attacking these pipelines. We address this gap by developing and red-teaming an open-source defense pipeline. 1 First, we find that a novel few-shot-prompted input and output classifier outperforms state-of-the-art open-weight safeguard model ShieldGemma across three attacks and two datasets, reducing the attack success rate (ASR) to 0% on the catastrophic misuse dataset ClearHarm. Second, we introduce a STaged AttaCK (STACK) procedure that achieves 71% ASR on ClearHarm in a black-box attack against the few-shot-prompted classifier pipeline. Finally, we also evaluate STACK in a transfer setting, achieving 33% ASR, providing initial evidence that it is feasible to design attacks with no access to the target pipeline. We conclude by suggesting specific mitigations that developers could use to thwart staged attacks.

Increasing model size has unlocked a dazzling array of capabilities in language models. At the same time, even frontier models remain vulnerable to jailbreaks and prompt injections, despite concerted efforts to make them robust. As both attackers and defenders gain access to more compute, and as models become larger, what will be the effect on robustness? We argue that to answer this question requires a *scaling lens*, which we adopt in an extensive study of language model robustness across several classification tasks, model families, and adversarial attacks. We find that in the absence of explicit safety training, larger models are not consistently more robust; however, scale improves sample efficiency in adversarial training, though it worsens compute efficiency. Further, we find that increasing attack compute smoothly improves attack success rate against both undefended and adversarially trained models. Finally, after exploring robustness transfer across attacks and threat models, we combine attack and defense scaling rates to study the offense-defense balance. We find that while attack scaling outpaces adversarial training across all models studied, larger adversarially trained models might give defense the advantage in the long run. These results underscore the utility of the scaling lens, and provide a paradigm for evaluating future attacks and defenses on frontier models. Code for this project is available at https://github.com/AlignmentResearch/scaling-llm-robustness-paper.