We examine the economics of demand and supply in cloud computing. The public cloud offers three main benefits to firms: 1) utilization can be scaled up or down easily; 2) capital expenditure (on-premises servers) can be converted to operating expenses, with the capital incurred by a specialist; 3) software can be ``pay-as-you-go.'' These benefits increase with the firm's ability to dynamically scale resource utilization and thus point to the need for dynamic prices to shape demand to the (short-run) fixed datacenter supply. Detailed utilization analysis reveals the large swings in utilization at the hourly, daily or weekly level are very rare at the customer level and non-existent at the datacenter level. Furthermore, few customers show volatility patterns that are excessively correlated with the market. These results explain why fixed prices currently prevail despite the seeming need for time-varying dynamics. Examining the actual CPU utilization provides a lens into the future. Here utilization varies by order half the datacenter capacity, but most firms are not dynamically scaling their assigned resources at-present to take advantage of these changes. If these gains are realized, demand fluctuations would be on par with the three classic industries where dynamic pricing is important (hotels, electricity, airlines) and dynamic prices would be essential for efficiency.

Two recent disruptions to the online advertising market are the widespread use of ad-blocking software and proposed restrictions on third-party tracking, trends that are driven largely by consumer concerns over privacy. Both primarily impact display advertising (as opposed to search and native social ads), and affect how retailers reach customers and how content producers earn revenue. It is, however, unclear what the consequences of these trends are. We investigate using anonymized web browsing histories of 14 million individuals, focusing on "retail sessions" in which users visit online sites that sell goods and services. We find that only 3% of retail sessions are initiated by display ads, a figure that is robust to permissive attribution rules and consistent across widely varying market segments. We further estimate the full distribution of how retail sessions are initiated, and find that search advertising is three times more important than display advertising to retailers, and search advertising is itself roughly three times less important than organic web search. Moving to content providers, we find that display ads are shown by 12% of websites, accounting for 32% of their page views; this reliance is concentrated in online publishing, e.g., news outlets) where the rate is 91%. While most consumption is either in the long-tail of websites that do not show ads, or sites like Facebook that show native, first-party ads, moderately sized web publishers account for a substantial fraction of consumption, and we argue that they will be most affected by changes in the display advertising market. Finally, we use estimates of ad rates to judge the feasibility of replacing lost ad revenue with a freemium or donation-based model.

The public cloud "infrastructure as a service" market possesses unique features that make it difficult to predict long-run economic behavior. On the one hand, major providers buy their hardware from the same manufacturers, operate in similar locations and offer a similar menu of products. On the other hand, the competitors use different proprietary "fabric" to manage virtualization, resource allocation and data transfer. The menus offered by each provider involve a discrete number of choices (virtual machine sizes) and allow providers to locate in different parts of the price-quality space. We document this differentiation empirically by running benchmarking tests. This allows us to calibrate a model of firm technology. Firm technology is an input into our theoretical model of price-quality competition. The monopoly case highlights the importance of competition in blocking "bad equilibrium" where performance is intentionally slowed down or options are unduly limited. In duopoly, price competition is fierce, but prices do not converge to the same level because of price-quality differentiation. The model helps explain market trends, such the healthy operating profit margin recently reported by Amazon Web Services. Our empirically calibrated model helps not only explain price cutting behavior but also how providers can manage a profit despite predictions that the market "should be" totally commoditized.

Measuring the causal effects of online advertising (adfx) on user behavior is important to the health of the WWW publishing industry. In this paper, using three controlled experiments, we show that observational data frequently lead to incorrect estimates of adfx. The reason, which we label "activity bias," comes from the surprising amount of time-based correlation between the myriad activities that users undertake online. In Experiment 1, users who are exposed to an ad on a given day are much more likely to engage in brand-relevant search queries as compared to their recent history for reasons that had nothing do with the advertisement. In Experiment 2, we show that activity bias occurs for page views across diverse websites. In Experiment 3, we track account sign-ups at a competitor's (of the advertiser) website and find that many more people sign-up on the day they saw an advertisement than on other days, but that the true "competitive effect" was minimal. In all three experiments, exposure to a campaign signals doing "more of everything" in given period of time, making it difficult to find a suitable "matched control" using prior behavior. In such cases, the "match" is fundamentally different from the exposed group, and we show how and why observational methods lead to a massive overestimate of adfx in such circumstances.