Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells. Despite their critical role in shaping mid-latitude weather, accurately modeling and analyzing blocking events in long meteorological records remains a significant challenge. To address this challenge, we present anuncertainty visualization framework for detecting and characterizing atmospheric blocking events. First, we introduce a geometry-based detection and tracking method, evaluated on both pre-industrial climate model simulations (UKESM) and reanalysis data (ERA5), which represent historical Earth observations assimilated from satellite and station measurements onto regular numerical grids using weather models. Second, we propose a suite of uncertainty-aware summaries: contour boxplots that capture representative boundaries and their variability, frequency heatmaps that encode occurrences, and 3D temporal stacks that situate these patterns in time. Third, we demonstrate our framework in a case study of the 2003 European heatwave, mapping the spatiotemporal occurrences of blocking events using these summaries. Collectively, these uncertainty visualizations reveal where blocking events are most likely to occur and how their spatial footprints evolve over time. We envision our framework as a valuable tool for climate scientists and meteorologists: by analyzing how blocking frequency, duration, and intensity vary across regions and climate scenarios, it supports both the study of historical blocking events and the assessment of scenario-dependent climate risks associated with changes in extreme weather linked to blocking.

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physically-based causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a novel approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists’ efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a “super emulator” can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.