Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for observed data. A key goal for SBI is to achieve accurate inference with as few simulations as possible, especially for expensive simulators. In this work, we address this challenge by repurposing recent probabilistic foundation models for tabular data: We show how tabular foundation models---specifically TabPFN---can be used as pre-trained autoregressive conditional density estimators for SBI. We propose Neural Posterior Estimation with Prior-data Fitted Networks (NPE-PFN) and show that it is competitive with current SBI approaches in terms of accuracy for both benchmark tasks and two complex scientific inverse problems. Crucially, it often substantially outperforms them in terms of simulation efficiency, sometimes requiring orders of magnitude fewer simulations. NPE-PFN eliminates the need for selecting and training an inference network and tuning its hyperparameters. We also show that it exhibits superior robustness to model misspecification and can be scaled to simulation budgets that exceed the context size limit of TabPFN. NPE-PFN provides a new direction for SBI, where training-free, general-purpose inference models offer efficient, easy-to-use, and flexible solutions for a wide range of stochastic inverse problems.

Modern datasets in neuroscience enable unprecedented inquiries into the relationship between complex behaviors and the activity of many simultaneously recorded neurons. While latent variable models can successfully extract low-dimensional embeddings from such recordings, using them to generate realistic spiking data, especially in a behavior-dependent manner, still poses a challenge. Here, we present Latent Diffusion for Neural Spiking data (LDNS), a diffusion-based generative model with a low-dimensional latent space: LDNS employs an autoencoder with structured state-space (S4) layers to project discrete high-dimensional spiking data into continuous time-aligned latents. On these inferred latents, we train expressive (conditional) diffusion models, enabling us to sample neural activity with realistic single-neuron and population spiking statistics. We validate LDNS on synthetic data, accurately recovering latent structure, firing rates, and spiking statistics. Next, we demonstrate its flexibility by generating variable-length data that mimics human cortical activity during attempted speech. We show how to equip LDNS with an expressive observation model that accounts for single-neuron dynamics not mediated by the latent state, further increasing the realism of generated samples. Finally, conditional LDNS trained on motor cortical activity during diverse reaching behaviors can generate realistic spiking data given reach direction or unseen reach trajectories. In summary, LDNS simultaneously enables inference of low-dimensional latents and realistic conditional generation of neural spiking datasets, opening up further possibilities for simulating experimentally testable hypotheses.

Scientific modeling applications often require estimating a distribution of parameters consistent with a dataset of observations - an inference task also known as source distribution estimation. This problem can be ill-posed, however, since many different source distributions might produce the same distribution of data-consistent simulations. To make a principled choice among many equally valid sources, we propose an approach which targets the maximum entropy distribution, i.e., prioritizes retaining as much uncertainty as possible. Our method is purely sample-based - leveraging the Sliced-Wasserstein distance to measure the discrepancy between the dataset and simulations - and thus suitable for simulators with intractable likelihoods. We benchmark our method on several tasks, and show that it can recover source distributions with substantially higher entropy than recent source estimation methods, without sacrificing the fidelity of the simulations. Finally, to demonstrate the utility of our approach, we infer source distributions for parameters of the Hodgkin-Huxley model from experimental datasets with hundreds of single-neuron measurements. In summary, we propose a principled method for inferring source distributions of scientific simulator parameters while retaining as much uncertainty as possible.