MOTIVATION: Cell function is regulated by gene regulatory networks (GRNs) defined by protein-mediated interaction between constituent genes. Despite advances in experimental techniques, we can still measure only a fraction of the processes that govern GRN dynamics. To infer the properties of GRNs using partial observation, unobserved sequential processes can be replaced with distributed time delays, yielding non-Markovian models. Inference methods based on the resulting model suffer from the curse of dimensionality. RESULTS: We develop a simulation-based Bayesian MCMC method employing an approximate likelihood for the efficient and accurate inference of GRN parameters when only some of their products are observed. We illustrate our approach using a two-step activation model: an activation signal leads to the accumulation of an unobserved regulatory protein, which triggers the expression of observed fluorescent proteins. With prior information about observed fluorescent protein synthesis, our method successfully infers the dynamics of the unobserved regulatory protein. We can estimate the delay and kinetic parameters characterizing target regulation including transcription, translation, and target searching of an unobserved protein from experimental measurements of the products of its target gene. Our method is scalable and can be used to analyze non-Markovian models with hidden components. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Our code is implemented in R and is freely available with a simple example data at https://github.com/Mathbiomed/SimMCMC.

Solutions to challenging inference problems are often subject to a fundamental trade-off between: 1) bias (being systematically wrong) that is minimized with complex inference strategies, and 2) variance (being oversensitive to uncertain observations) that is minimized with simple inference strategies. However, this trade-off is based on the assumption that the strategies being considered are optimal for their given complexity and thus has unclear relevance to forms of inference based on suboptimal strategies. We examined inference problems applied to rare, asymmetrically available evidence, which a large population of human subjects solved using a diverse set of strategies that varied in form and complexity. In general, subjects using more complex strategies tended to have lower bias and variance, but with a dependence on the form of strategy that reflected an inversion of the classic bias-variance trade-off: subjects who used more complex, but imperfect, Bayesian-like strategies tended to have lower variance but higher bias because of incorrect tuning to latent task features, whereas subjects who used simpler heuristic strategies tended to have higher variance because they operated more directly on the observed samples but lower, near-normative bias. Our results help define new principles that govern individual differences in behavior that depends on rare-event inference and, more generally, about the information-processing trade-offs that can be sensitive to not just the complexity, but also the optimality, of the inference process.

MOTIVATION: Simultaneous recordings of gene network dynamics across large populations have revealed that cell characteristics vary considerably even in clonal lines. Inferring the variability of parameters that determine gene dynamics is key to understanding cellular behavior. However, this is complicated by the fact that the outcomes and effects of many reactions are not observable directly. Unobserved reactions can be replaced with time delays to reduce model dimensionality and simplify inference. However, the resulting models are non-Markovian, and require the development of new inference techniques. RESULTS: We propose a non-Markovian, hierarchical Bayesian inference framework for quantifying the variability of cellular processes within and across cells in a population. We illustrate our approach using a delayed birth-death process. In general, a distributed delay model, rather than a popular fixed delay model, is needed for inference, even if only mean reaction delays are of interest. Using in silico and experimental data we show that the proposed hierarchical framework is robust and leads to improved estimates compared to its non-hierarchical counterpart. We apply our method to data obtained using time-lapse microscopy and infer the parameters that describe the dynamics of protein production at the single cell and population level. The mean delays in protein production are larger than previously reported, have a coefficient of variation of around 0.2 across the population, and are not strongly correlated with protein production or growth rates. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Accompanying code in Python is available at https://github.com/mvcortez/Bayesian-Inference. CONTACT: [email protected] or [email protected] or [email protected]. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

The dynamics of local cortical networks are irregular, but correlated. Dynamic excitatory-inhibitory balance is a plausible mechanism that generates such irregular activity, but it remains unclear how balance is achieved and maintained in plastic neural networks. In particular, it is not fully understood how plasticity induced changes in the network affect balance, and in turn, how correlated, balanced activity impacts learning. How do the dynamics of balanced networks change under different plasticity rules? How does correlated spiking activity in recurrent networks change the evolution of weights, their eventual magnitude, and structure across the network? To address these questions, we develop a theory of spike-timing dependent plasticity in balanced networks. We show that balance can be attained and maintained under plasticity-induced weight changes. We find that correlations in the input mildly affect the evolution of synaptic weights. Under certain plasticity rules, we find an emergence of correlations between firing rates and synaptic weights. Under these rules, synaptic weights converge to a stable manifold in weight space with their final configuration dependent on the initial state of the network. Lastly, we show that our framework can also describe the dynamics of plastic balanced networks when subsets of neurons receive targeted optogenetic input.

The increased complexity of synthetic microbial biocircuits highlights the need for distributed cell functionality due to concomitant increases in metabolic and regulatory burdens imposed on single-strain topologies. Distributed systems, however, introduce additional challenges since consortium composition and spatiotemporal dynamics of constituent strains must be robustly controlled to achieve desired circuit behaviors. Here, we address these challenges with a modeling-based investigation of emergent spatiotemporal population dynamics using cell-length control in monolayer, two-strain bacterial consortia. We demonstrate that with dynamic control of a strain's division length, nematic cell alignment in close-packed monolayers can be destabilized. We find that this destabilization confers an emergent, competitive advantage to smaller-length strains-but by mechanisms that differ depending on the spatial patterns of the population. We used complementary modeling approaches to elucidate underlying mechanisms: an agent-based model to simulate detailed mechanical and signaling interactions between the competing strains, and a reductive, stochastic lattice model to represent cell-cell interactions with a single rotational parameter. Our modeling suggests that spatial strain-fraction oscillations can be generated when cell-length control is coupled to quorum-sensing signaling in negative feedback topologies. Our research employs novel methods of population control and points the way to programming strain fraction dynamics in consortial synthetic biology.

MOTIVATION: Advances in experimental and imaging techniques have allowed for unprecedented insights into the dynamical processes within individual cells. However, many facets of intracellular dynamics remain hidden, or can be measured only indirectly. This makes it challenging to reconstruct the regulatory networks that govern the biochemical processes underlying various cell functions. Current estimation techniques for inferring reaction rates frequently rely on marginalization over unobserved processes and states. Even in simple systems this approach can be computationally challenging, and can lead to large uncertainties and lack of robustness in parameter estimates. Therefore we will require alternative approaches to efficiently uncover the interactions in complex biochemical networks. RESULTS: We propose a Bayesian inference framework based on replacing uninteresting or unobserved reactions with time delays. Although the resulting models are non-Markovian, recent results on stochastic systems with random delays allow us to rigorously obtain expressions for the likelihoods of model parameters. In turn, this allows us to extend MCMC methods to efficiently estimate reaction rates, and delay distribution parameters, from single-cell assays. We illustrate the advantages, and potential pitfalls, of the approach using a birth-death model with both synthetic and experimental data, and show that we can robustly infer model parameters using a relatively small number of measurements. We demonstrate how to do so even when only the relative molecule count within the cell is measured, as in the case of fluorescence microscopy. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Accompanying code in R is available at https://github.com/cbskust/DDE_BD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible change point counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation-based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments and map this computation to reduced models that perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.

Recent experimental advances are producing an avalanche of data on both neural connectivity and neural activity. To take full advantage of these two emerging datasets we need a framework that links them, revealing how collective neural activity arises from the structure of neural connectivity and intrinsic neural dynamics. This problem of structure-driven activity has drawn major interest in computational neuroscience. Existing methods for relating activity and architecture in spiking networks rely on linearizing activity around a central operating point and thus fail to capture the nonlinear responses of individual neurons that are the hallmark of neural information processing. Here, we overcome this limitation and present a new relationship between connectivity and activity in networks of nonlinear spiking neurons by developing a diagrammatic fluctuation expansion based on statistical field theory. We explicitly show how recurrent network structure produces pairwise and higher-order correlated activity, and how nonlinearities impact the networks' spiking activity. Our findings open new avenues to investigating how single-neuron nonlinearities-including those of different cell types-combine with connectivity to shape population activity and function.

Humans and other animals base their decisions on noisy sensory input. Much work has been devoted to understanding the computations that underlie such decisions. The problem has been studied in a variety of tasks and with stimuli of differing complexity. However, how the statistical structure of stimuli, along with perceptual measurement noise, affects perceptual judgments is not well understood. Here we examine how correlations between the components of a stimulus-stimulus correlations-together with correlations in sensory noise, affect decision making. As an example, we consider the task of detecting the presence of a single or multiple targets among distractors. We assume that both the distractors and the observer's measurements of the stimuli are correlated. The computations of an optimal observer in this task are nontrivial yet can be analyzed and understood intuitively. We find that when distractors are strongly correlated, measurement correlations can have a strong impact on performance. When distractor correlations are weak, measurement correlations have little impact unless the number of stimuli is large. Correlations in neural responses to structured stimuli can therefore have a strong impact on perceptual judgments.

Modulation of gene network activity allows cells to respond to changes in environmental conditions. For example, the galactose utilization network in Saccharomyces cerevisiae is activated by the presence of galactose but repressed by glucose. If both sugars are present, the yeast will first metabolize glucose, depleting it from the extracellular environment. Upon depletion of glucose, the genes encoding galactose metabolic proteins will activate. Here, we show that the rate at which glucose levels are depleted determines the timing and variability of galactose gene activation. Paradoxically, we find that Gal1p, an enzyme needed for galactose metabolism, accumulates more quickly if glucose is depleted slowly rather than taken away quickly. Furthermore, the variability of induction times in individual cells depends non-monotonically on the rate of glucose depletion and exhibits a minimum at intermediate depletion rates. Our mathematical modeling suggests that the dynamics of the metabolic transition from glucose to galactose are responsible for the variability in galactose gene activation. These findings demonstrate that environmental dynamics can determine the phenotypic outcome at both the single-cell and population levels.

Synthetic gene oscillators are small, engineered genetic circuits that produce periodic variations in target protein expression. Like other gene circuits, synthetic gene oscillators are noisy and exhibit fluctuations in amplitude and period. Understanding the origins of such variability is key to building predictive models that can guide the rational design of synthetic circuits. Here, we developed a method for determining the impact of different sources of noise in genetic oscillators by measuring the variability in oscillation amplitude and correlations between sister cells. We first used a combination of microfluidic devices and time-lapse fluorescence microscopy to track oscillations in cell lineages across many generations. We found that oscillation amplitude exhibited high cell-to-cell variability, while sister cells remained strongly correlated for many minutes after cell division. To understand how such variability arises, we constructed a computational model that identified the impact of various noise sources across the lineage of an initial cell. When each source of noise was appropriately tuned the model reproduced the experimentally observed amplitude variability and correlations, and accurately predicted outcomes under novel experimental conditions. Our combination of computational modeling and time-lapse data analysis provides a general way to examine the sources of variability in dynamic gene circuits.

Ambitious projects aim to record the activity of ever larger and denser neuronal populations in vivo. Correlations in neural activity measured in such recordings can reveal important aspects of neural circuit organization. However, estimating and interpreting large correlation matrices is statistically challenging. Estimation can be improved by regularization, i.e. by imposing a structure on the estimate. The amount of improvement depends on how closely the assumed structure represents dependencies in the data. Therefore, the selection of the most efficient correlation matrix estimator for a given neural circuit must be determined empirically. Importantly, the identity and structure of the most efficient estimator informs about the types of dominant dependencies governing the system. We sought statistically efficient estimators of neural correlation matrices in recordings from large, dense groups of cortical neurons. Using fast 3D random-access laser scanning microscopy of calcium signals, we recorded the activity of nearly every neuron in volumes 200 μm wide and 100 μm deep (150-350 cells) in mouse visual cortex. We hypothesized that in these densely sampled recordings, the correlation matrix should be best modeled as the combination of a sparse graph of pairwise partial correlations representing local interactions and a low-rank component representing common fluctuations and external inputs. Indeed, in cross-validation tests, the covariance matrix estimator with this structure consistently outperformed other regularized estimators. The sparse component of the estimate defined a graph of interactions. These interactions reflected the physical distances and orientation tuning properties of cells: The density of positive 'excitatory' interactions decreased rapidly with geometric distances and with differences in orientation preference whereas negative 'inhibitory' interactions were less selective. Because of its superior performance, this 'sparse+latent' estimator likely provides a more physiologically relevant representation of the functional connectivity in densely sampled recordings than the sample correlation matrix.

We discuss methods for fast spatiotemporal smoothing of calcium signals in dendritic trees, given single-trial, spatially localized imaging data obtained via multi-photon microscopy. By analyzing the dynamics of calcium binding to probe molecules and the effects of the imaging procedure, we show that calcium concentration can be estimated up to an affine transformation, i.e., an additive and multiplicative constant. To obtain a full spatiotemporal estimate, we model calcium dynamics within the cell using a functional approach. The evolution of calcium concentration is represented through a smaller set of hidden variables that incorporate fast transients due to backpropagating action potentials (bAPs), or other forms of stimulation. Because of the resulting state space structure, inference can be done in linear time using forward-backward maximum-a-posteriori methods. Non-negativity constraints on the calcium concentration can also be incorporated using a log-barrier method that does not affect the computational scaling. Moreover, by exploiting the neuronal tree structure we show that the cost of the algorithm is also linear in the size of the dendritic tree, making the approach applicable to arbitrarily large trees. We apply this algorithm to data obtained from hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cells with experimentally evoked bAPs, some of which were paired with excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSPs). The algorithm recovers the timing of the bAPs and provides an estimate of the induced calcium transient throughout the tree. The proposed methods could be used to further understand the interplay between bAPs and EPSPs in synaptic strength modification. More generally, this approach allows us to infer the concentration on intracellular calcium across the dendritic tree from noisy observations at a discrete set of points in space.

Novel experimental techniques reveal the simultaneous activity of larger and larger numbers of neurons. As a result there is increasing interest in the structure of cooperative--or correlated--activity in neural populations, and in the possible impact of such correlations on the neural code. A fundamental theoretical challenge is to understand how the architecture of network connectivity along with the dynamical properties of single cells shape the magnitude and timescale of correlations. We provide a general approach to this problem by extending prior techniques based on linear response theory. We consider networks of general integrate-and-fire cells with arbitrary architecture, and provide explicit expressions for the approximate cross-correlation between constituent cells. These correlations depend strongly on the operating point (input mean and variance) of the neurons, even when connectivity is fixed. Moreover, the approximations admit an expansion in powers of the matrices that describe the network architecture. This expansion can be readily interpreted in terms of paths between different cells. We apply our results to large excitatory-inhibitory networks, and demonstrate first how precise balance--or lack thereof--between the strengths and timescales of excitatory and inhibitory synapses is reflected in the overall correlation structure of the network. We then derive explicit expressions for the average correlation structure in randomly connected networks. These expressions help to identify the important factors that shape coordinated neural activity in such networks.

Correlations between neuronal spike trains affect network dynamics and population coding. Overlapping afferent populations and correlations between presynaptic spike trains introduce correlations between the inputs to downstream cells. To understand network activity and population coding, it is therefore important to understand how these input correlations are transferred to output correlations.Recent studies have addressed this question in the limit of many inputs with infinitesimal postsynaptic response amplitudes, where the total input can be approximated by gaussian noise. In contrast, we address the problem of correlation transfer by representing input spike trains as point processes, with each input spike eliciting a finite postsynaptic response. This approach allows us to naturally model synaptic noise and recurrent coupling and to treat excitatory and inhibitory inputs separately.We derive several new results that provide intuitive insights into the fundamental mechanisms that modulate the transfer of spiking correlations.

The creation of protein from DNA is a dynamic process consisting of numerous reactions, such as transcription, translation and protein folding. Each of these reactions is further comprised of hundreds or thousands of sub-steps that must be completed before a protein is fully mature. Consequently, the time it takes to create a single protein depends on the number of steps in the reaction chain and the nature of each step. One way to account for these reactions in models of gene regulatory networks is to incorporate dynamical delay. However, the stochastic nature of the reactions necessary to produce protein leads to a waiting time that is randomly distributed. Here, we use queueing theory to examine the effects of such distributed delay on the propagation of information through transcriptionally regulated genetic networks. In an analytically tractable model we find that increasing the randomness in protein production delay can increase signaling speed in transcriptional networks. The effect is confirmed in stochastic simulations, and we demonstrate its impact in several common transcriptional motifs. In particular, we show that in feedforward loops signaling time and magnitude are significantly affected by distributed delay. In addition, delay has previously been shown to cause stable oscillations in circuits with negative feedback. We show that the period and the amplitude of the oscillations monotonically decrease as the variability of the delay time increases.

The magnitude of correlations between stimulus-driven responses of pairs of neurons can itself be stimulus dependent. We examine how this dependence affects the information carried by neural populations about the stimuli that drive them. Stimulus-dependent changes in correlations can both carry information directly and modulate the information separately carried by the firing rates and variances. We use Fisher information to quantify these effects and show that, although stimulus-dependent correlations often carry little information directly, their modulatory effects on the overall information can be large. In particular, if the stimulus dependence is such that correlations increase with stimulus-induced firing rates, this can significantly enhance the information of the population when the structure of correlations is determined solely by the stimulus. However, in the presence of additional strong spatial decay of correlations, such stimulus dependence may have a negative impact. Opposite relationships hold when correlations decrease with firing rates.

We consider a fast-slow excitable system subject to a stochastic excitatory input train and show that under general conditions, its long-term behavior is captured by an irreducible Markov chain with a limiting distribution. This limiting distribution allows for the analytical calculation of the system's probability of firing in response to each input, the expected number of response failures between firings, and the distribution of slow variable values between firings. Moreover, using this approach, it is possible to understand why the system will not have a stationary distribution and why Monte Carlo simulations do not converge under certain conditions. The analytical calculations involved can be performed whenever the distribution of interexcitation intervals and the recovery dynamics of the slow variable are known. The method can be extended to other models that feature a single variable that builds up to a threshold where an instantaneous spike and reset occur. We also discuss how the Markov chain analysis generalizes to any pair of input trains, excitatory or inhibitory and synaptic or not, such that the frequencies of the two trains are sufficiently different from each other. We illustrate this analysis on a model thalamocortical (TC) cell subject to two example distributions of excitatory synaptic inputs in the cases of constant and rhythmic inhibition. The analysis shows a drastic drop in the likelihood of firing just after inhibitory onset in the case of rhythmic inhibition, relative even to the case of elevated but constant inhibition. This observation provides support for a possible mechanism for the induction of motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease and for their relief by deep brain stimulation, analyzed in Rubin and Terman (2004).