Watermarking has emerged as a promising way to detect LLM-generated text, by augmenting LLM generations with later detectable signals. Recent work has proposed multiple families of watermarking schemes, several of which focus on preserving the LLM distribution. This distribution-preservation property is motivated by the fact that it is a tractable proxy for retaining LLM capabilities, as well as the inherently implied undetectability of the watermark by downstream users. Yet, despite much discourse around undetectability, no prior work has investigated the practical detectability of any of the current watermarking schemes in a realistic black-box setting. In this work we tackle this for the first time, developing rigorous statistical tests to detect the presence, and estimate parameters, of all three popular watermarking scheme families, using only a limited number of black-box queries. We experimentally confirm the effectiveness of our methods on a range of schemes and a diverse set of open-source models. Further, we validate the feasibility of our tests on real-world APIs. Our findings indicate that current watermarking schemes are more detectable than previously believed.

LLM watermarks stand out as a promising way to attribute ownership of LLM-generated text. One threat to watermark credibility comes from spoofing attacks, where an unauthorized third party forges the watermark, enabling it to falsely attribute arbitrary texts to a particular LLM. Despite recent work demonstrating that state-of-the-art schemes are, in fact, vulnerable to spoofing, no prior work has focused on post-hoc methods to discover spoofing attempts. In this work, we for the first time propose a reliable statistical method to distinguish spoofed from genuinely watermarked text, suggesting that current spoofing attacks are less effective than previously thought. In particular, we show that regardless of their underlying approach, all current learning-based spoofing methods consistently leave observable artifacts in spoofed texts, indicative of watermark forgery. We build upon these findings to propose rigorous statistical tests that reliably reveal the presence of such artifacts and thus demonstrate that a watermark has been spoofed. Our experimental evaluation shows high test power across all learning-based spoofing methods, providing insights into their fundamental limitations and suggesting a way to mitigate this threat.