Accurate modeling of temporal point processes is critical for reliable event forecasting and informed decision-making. While historical event sequences provide a foundation for intensity estimation, existing approaches often neglect external covariates whose lagged effects impact future intensities across multiple temporal granularities. To address this gap, we propose Multi-Granularity Integration of External Covariates for Temporal Point Processes (METP), a framework for incorporating lagged external influences into intensity modeling. METP extracts periodic structures and decomposes external covariate series into multiple temporal granularities. At each granularity, a lag-aware calibration module is introduced to align covariates with event dynamics. Finally, a hierarchical mixture-of-experts strategy is employed to integrate the multi-granular external covariates with historical event embeddings, enabling a representation of the conditional intensity function with enhanced information. Extensive experiments on public and proprietary datasets demonstrate that METP consistently outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) aims to learn temporal dynamics among variables to forecast future time series. Existing statistical and deep learning-based methods suffer from limited learnable parameters and small-scale training data. Recently, large language models (LLMs) combining time series with textual prompts have achieved promising performance in MTSF. However, we discovered that current LLM-based solutions fall short in learning disentangled embeddings. We introduce TimeCMA, an intuitive yet effective framework for MTSF via cross-modality alignment. Specifically, we present a dual-modality encoding with two branches: the time series encoding branch extracts disentangled yet weak time series embeddings, and the LLM-empowered encoding branch wraps the same time series with text as prompts to obtain entangled yet robust prompt embeddings. As a result, such a cross-modality alignment retrieves both disentangled and robust time series embeddings, ``the best of two worlds'', from the prompt embeddings based on time series and prompt modality similarities. As another key design, to reduce the computational costs from time series with their length textual prompts, we design an effective prompt to encourage the most essential temporal information to be encapsulated in the last token: only the last token is passed to downstream prediction. We further store the last token embeddings to accelerate inference speed. Extensive experiments on eight real datasets demonstrate that TimeCMA outperforms state-of-the-arts.

Event prediction plays a pivotal role in analyzing consumer behavior for inventory and pricing optimization. In dynamic financial markets, customer behavior is often influenced by price commitment policies, where the historical and pre-announced future transaction price dynamics can lead to complex behavior patterns, such as advance consumption or delayed purchasing. Therefore, these phenomena pose significant challenges to traditional event modeling approaches that rely solely on consumer behaviors. To address this problem, we propose SCAlign, a cross-domain and multi-scale framework for market dynamics alignment, designed for event prediction. Our model integrates both heterogeneous historical and limited observable future commitment prices at different scales, aligning customer behavior with market fluctuations across multiple time scales. Finally, through a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework, the model dynamically fuses these aligned features, enabling adaptive selection of the relevant and appropriate representations for prediction tasks. Empirical evaluations across diverse transaction environments demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art prediction baselines. Furthermore, it achieves optimal performance across varying data scales, showcasing its robustness and generalizability.