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Alessandro Antonio Grande

dblp:379/6373 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
0as first author
1since 2021 · last 2024
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Generative modeling · 46% Time series and sequential data · 23% Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning · 23%

Topics — the 5 heaviest of 5, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Generative modeling › diffusion model
conditional diffusion model
0.812024
Treeffuser: probabilistic prediction via conditional diffusions with gradient-boosted trees · NeurIPS 2024
Machine learning › Generative modeling
diffusion model
0.812024
Treeffuser: probabilistic prediction via conditional diffusions with gradient-boosted trees · NeurIPS 2024
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › bayesian inference › bayesian prediction
predictive distribution
0.812024
Treeffuser: probabilistic prediction via conditional diffusions with gradient-boosted trees · NeurIPS 2024
Machine learning › Time series and sequential data › time series modeling
probabilistic forecasting
0.812024
Treeffuser: probabilistic prediction via conditional diffusions with gradient-boosted trees · NeurIPS 2024
Machine learning › Kernel, tree and ensemble methods › gradient boosting
gradient boosted decision trees
0.212024
Treeffuser: probabilistic prediction via conditional diffusions with gradient-boosted trees · NeurIPS 2024

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

score function estimation · 0.8gradient boosted trees · 0.8conditional diffusion model · 0.8
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2024 Treeffuser: probabilistic prediction via conditional diffusions with gradient-boosted trees
abstract
Probabilistic prediction aims to compute predictive distributions rather than single point predictions. These distributions enable practitioners to quantify uncertainty, compute risk, and detect outliers. However, most probabilistic methods assume parametric responses, such as Gaussian or Poisson distributions. When these assumptions fail, such models lead to bad predictions and poorly calibrated uncertainty. In this paper, we propose Treeffuser, an easy-to-use method for probabilistic prediction on tabular data. The idea is to learn a conditional diffusion model where the score function is estimated using gradient-boosted trees. The conditional diffusion model makes Treeffuser flexible and non-parametric, while the gradient-boosted trees make it robust and easy to train on CPUs. Treeffuser learns well-calibrated predictive distributions and can handle a wide range of regression tasks---including those with multivariate, multimodal, and skewed responses. We study Treeffuser on synthetic and real data and show that it outperforms existing methods, providing better calibrated probabilistic predictions. We further demonstrate its versatility with an application to inventory allocation under uncertainty using sales data from Walmart. We implement Treeffuser in https://github.com/blei-lab/treeffuser.
Nicolas Beltran-Velez, Alessandro Antonio Grande, Achille Nazaret, Alp Kucukelbir, David M. Blei
NeurIPS2