Decision trees (DTs) and their random forest (RF) extensions are workhorses of classification and regression in Euclidean spaces. However, algorithms for learning in non-Euclidean spaces are still limited. We extend DT and RF algorithms to product manifolds: Cartesian products of several hyperbolic, hyperspherical, or Euclidean components. Such manifolds handle heterogeneous curvature while still factorizing neatly into simpler components, making them compelling embedding spaces for complex datasets. Our novel angular reformulation respects manifold geometry while preserving the algorithmic properties that make decision trees effective. In the special cases of single-component manifolds, our method simplifies to its Euclidean or hyperbolic counterparts, or introduces hyperspherical DT algorithms, depending on the curvature. In benchmarks on a diverse suite of 57 classification, regression, and link prediction tasks, our product RFs ranked first on 29 tasks and came in the top 2 for 41. This highlights the value of product RFs as straightforward yet powerful new tools for data analysis in product manifolds. Code for our method is available at https://github.com/pchlenski/manify.

This paper presents a method for estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and a prediction question and asked to generate a response. One interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM computes the posterior predictive of an unknown Bayesian model, which implicitly defines a joint distribution over observable datasets and latent mechanisms. This joint distribution factorizes into two components: the model prior over mechanisms and the model likelihood of datasets given a mechanism. With this perspective, we define a \textit{hallucination} as a generated response to the prediction question with low model likelihood given the mechanism. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating prediction questions and responses from the CGM and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method using large language models for synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks.