Jiajun Zhang, Zeyu Cui, Jiaxi Yang, Lei Zhang, Yuheng Jing, Zeyao Ma, Tianyi Bai, Zilei Wang, Qiang Liu, Liang Wang, Binyuan Hui, Junyang Lin. Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2026.

Opponent Modeling (OM) aims to enhance decision-making by modeling other agents in multi-agent environments. Existing works typically learn opponent models against a pre-designated fixed set of opponents during training. However, this will cause poor generalization when facing unknown opponents during testing, as previously unseen opponents can exhibit out-of-distribution (OOD) behaviors that the learned opponent models cannot handle. To tackle this problem, we introduce a novel Open-Ended Opponent Modeling (OEOM) framework, which continuously generates opponents with diverse strengths and styles to reduce the possibility of OOD situations occurring during testing. Founded on population-based training and information-theoretic trajectory space diversity regularization, OEOM generates a dynamic set of opponents. This set is then fed to any OM approaches to train a potentially generalizable opponent model. Upon this, we further propose a simple yet effective OM approach that naturally fits within the OEOM framework. This approach is based on in-context reinforcement learning and learns a Transformer that dynamically recognizes and responds to opponents based on their trajectories. Extensive experiments in cooperative, competitive, and mixed environments demonstrate that OEOM is an approach-agnostic framework that improves generalizability compared to training against a fixed set of opponents, regardless of OM approaches or testing opponent settings. The results also indicate that our proposed approach generally outperforms existing OM baselines.

Offline Opponent Modeling (OOM) aims to learn an adaptive autonomous agent policy that dynamically adapts to opponents using an offline dataset from multi-agent games. Previous work assumes that the dataset is optimal. However, this assumption is difficult to satisfy in the real world. When the dataset is suboptimal, existing approaches struggle to work. To tackle this issue, we propose a simple and general algorithmic improvement framework, Truncated Q-driven Instant Policy Refinement (TIPR), to handle the suboptimality of OOM algorithms induced by datasets. The TIPR framework is plug-and-play in nature. Compared to original OOM algorithms, it requires only two extra steps: (1) Learn a horizon-truncated in-context action-value function, namely Truncated Q, using the offline dataset. The Truncated Q estimates the expected return within a fixed, truncated horizon and is conditioned on opponent information. (2) Use the learned Truncated Q to instantly decide whether to perform policy refinement and to generate policy after refinement during testing. Theoretically, we analyze the rationale of Truncated Q from the perspective of No Maximization Bias probability. Empirically, we conduct extensive comparison and ablation experiments in four representative competitive environments. TIPR effectively improves various OOM algorithms pretrained with suboptimal datasets.

Opponent modeling aims at learning the opponent's behaviors, goals, or beliefs to reduce the uncertainty of the competitive environment and assist decision-making. Existing work has mostly focused on learning opponent models online, which is impractical and inefficient in practical scenarios. To this end, we formalize an Offline Opponent Modeling (OOM) problem with the objective of utilizing pre-collected offline datasets to learn opponent models that characterize the opponent from the viewpoint of the controlled agent, which aids in adapting to the unknown fixed policies of the opponent. Drawing on the promises of the Transformers for decision-making, we introduce a general approach, Transformer Against Opponent (TAO), for OOM. Essentially, TAO tackles the problem by harnessing the full potential of the supervised pre-trained Transformers' in-context learning capabilities. The foundation of TAO lies in three stages: an innovative offline policy embedding learning stage, an offline opponent-aware response policy training stage, and a deployment stage for opponent adaptation with in-context learning. Theoretical analysis establishes TAO's equivalence to Bayesian posterior sampling in opponent modeling and guarantees TAO's convergence in opponent policy recognition. Extensive experiments and ablation studies on competitive environments with sparse and dense rewards demonstrate the impressive performance of TAO. Our approach manifests remarkable prowess for fast adaptation, especially in the face of unseen opponent policies, confirming its in-context learning potency.

Opponent modeling is a longstanding research topic aimed at enhancing decision-making by modeling information about opponents in multi-agent environments. However, existing approaches often face challenges such as having difficulty generalizing to unknown opponent policies and conducting unstable performance. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel approach based on in-context learning and decision-time search named Opponent Modeling with In-context Search (OMIS). OMIS leverages in-context learning-based pretraining to train a Transformer model for decision-making. It consists of three in-context components: an actor learning best responses to opponent policies, an opponent imitator mimicking opponent actions, and a critic estimating state values. When testing in an environment that features unknown non-stationary opponent agents, OMIS uses pretrained in-context components for decision-time search to refine the actor's policy. Theoretically, we prove that under reasonable assumptions, OMIS without search converges in opponent policy recognition and has good generalization properties; with search, OMIS provides improvement guarantees, exhibiting performance stability. Empirically, in competitive, cooperative, and mixed environments, OMIS demonstrates more effective and stable adaptation to opponents than other approaches. See our project website at https://sites.google.com/view/nips2024-omis.