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Guilherme Ost

dblp:385/0351 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
1as first author
1since 2021 · last 2023
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 first-author · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning · 100%

Topics — the 2 heaviest of 2, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference
high-dimensional inference
0.712023
Sparse Markov Models for High-dimensional Inference · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2023
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › stochastic processes
markov chain
0.712023
Sparse Markov Models for High-dimensional Inference · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2023

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

recursive lag selection · 0.7martingale concentration inequality · 0.7
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2023 Sparse Markov Models for High-dimensional Inference
abstract
Finite-order Markov models are well-studied models for dependent finite alphabet data. Despite their generality, application in empirical work is rare when the order $d$ is large relative to the sample size $n$ (e.g., $d = \mathcal{O}(n)$). Practitioners rarely use higher-order Markov models because (1) the number of parameters grows exponentially with the order, (2) the sample size $n$ required to estimate each parameter grows exponentially with the order, and (3) the interpretation is often difficult. Here, we consider a subclass of Markov models called Mixture of Transition Distribution (MTD) models, proving that when the set of relevant lags is sparse (i.e., $\mathcal{O}(\log(n))$), we can consistently and efficiently recover the lags and estimate the transition probabilities of high-dimensional ($d = \mathcal{O}(n)$) MTD models. Moreover, the estimated model allows straightforward interpretation. The key innovation is a recursive procedure for a priori selection of the relevant lags of the model. We prove a new structural result for the MTD and an improved martingale concentration inequality to prove our results. Using simulations, we show that our method performs well compared to other relevant methods. We also illustrate the usefulness of our method on weather data where the proposed method correctly recovers the long-range dependence.
Guilherme Ost, Daniel Y. Takahashi
J. Mach. Learn. Res.1