Scaling data and compute is critical in modern machine learning. However, scaling also demands _predictability_: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from low compute or low data runs, without ever running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show predictability of value-based off-policy deep RL. First, we show that data and compute requirements to reach a given performance level lie on a _Pareto frontier_, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can extrapolate data requirements into a higher compute regime, and compute requirements into a higher data regime. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of total _budget_ across data and compute to obtain given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between different _hyperparameters_, which is used to counteract effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

As models grow larger and training them becomes expensive, it becomes increasingly important to scale training recipes not just to larger models and more data, but to do so in a compute-optimal manner that extracts maximal performance per unit of compute. While such scaling has been well studied for language modeling, reinforcement learning (RL) has received less attention in this regard. In this paper, we investigate compute scaling for online, value-based deep RL. These methods present two primary axes for compute allocation: model capacity and the update-to-data (UTD) ratio. Given a fixed compute budget, we ask: how should resources be partitioned across these axes to maximize data efficiency? Our analysis reveals a nuanced interplay between model size, batch size, and UTD. In particular, we identify a phenomenon we call TD-overfitting: increasing the batch quickly harms Q-function accuracy for small models, but this effect is absent in large models, enabling effective use of large batch size at scale. We provide a mental model for understanding this phenomenon and build guidelines for choosing batch size and UTD to optimize compute usage. Our findings provide a grounded starting point for compute-optimal scaling in deep RL, mirroring studies in supervised learning but adapted to TD learning. Project page: https://value-scaling.github.io/.