We study allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to individuals based on the structural properties of their underlying social contact network. Using a realistic representation of a social contact network for the Commonwealth of Virginia, we study how a limited number of vaccine doses can be strategically distributed to individuals to reduce the overall burden of the pandemic. We show that allocation of vaccines based on individuals' degree (number of social contacts) and total social proximity time is significantly more effective than the usually used age-based allocation strategy in reducing the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. The overall strategy is robust even: (i) if the social contacts are not estimated correctly; (ii) if the vaccine efficacy is lower than expected or only a single dose is given; (iii) if there is a delay in vaccine production and deployment; and (iv) whether or not non-pharmaceutical interventions continue as vaccines are deployed. For reasons of implementability, we have used degree, which is a simple structural measure and can be easily estimated using several methods, including the digital technology available today. These results are significant, especially for resource-poor countries, where vaccines are less available, have lower efficacy, and are more slowly distributed.

Vaccination is the primary intervention for controlling the spread of infectious diseases. A certain level of vaccination rate (referred to as "herd immunity") is needed for this intervention to be effective. However, there are concerns that herd immunity might not be achieved due to an increasing level of hesitancy and opposition to vaccines. One of the primary reasons for this is the cost of non-conformance with one's peers. We use the framework of network coordination games to study the persistence of anti-vaccine sentiment in a population. We extend it to incorporate the opposing forces of the pressure of conforming to peers, herd-immunity and vaccination benefits. We study the structure of the equilibria in such games, and the characteristics of unvaccinated nodes. We also study Stackelberg strategies to reduce the number of nodes with anti-vaccine sentiment. Finally, we evaluate our results on different kinds of real world social networks.

We study the role of vaccine acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US using AI-driven agent-based models. Our study uses a 288 million node social contact network spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12.59 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based models use realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Developing a national model at this resolution that is driven by realistic data requires a complex scalable workflow, model calibration, simulation, and analytics components. Our workflow optimizes the total execution time and helps in improving overall human productivity.This work develops a pipeline that can execute US-scale models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. Our results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4K to 28.2K nationwide. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. Improving vaccine acceptance by 10% in all states increases averted infections from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total deaths from 28.2K to 29.9K (a 6% increase) nationwide. The analysis also reveals interesting spatio-temporal differences in COVID-19 dynamics as a result of vaccine acceptance. To our knowledge, this is the first national-scale analysis of the effect of vaccine acceptance on the spread of COVID-19, using detailed and realistic agent-based models.

We develop a general data-driven methodology that yields network representations of agricultural flows pertaining to the spread of invasive species. The methodology synthesizes sparse, diverse, noisy and incomplete data that is typically available to build realistic spatiotemporal network representations. We illustrate the methodology by modeling the seasonal flow of the tomato crop in Nepal between major domestic markets. Through dynamical analysis of the network, we study its role in the spread of a major pest of tomato, Tuta absoluta, an emerging outbreak in this country. In the absence of high-resolution pest distribution data, we apply a novel ranking-based inference approach to establish that tomato trade is a driving factor in the rapid spread of this pest.

The study objective is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccine interventions during influenza pandemics in Chicago, and assist in vaccine intervention priorities. Scenarios of delay in vaccine introduction with limited vaccine efficacy and limited supplies are not unlikely in future influenza pandemics, as in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. We simulated influenza pandemics in Chicago using agent-based transmission dynamic modeling. Population was distributed among high-risk and non-high risk among 0-19, 20-64 and 65+ years subpopulations. Different attack rate scenarios for catastrophic (30.15%), strong (21.96%), and moderate (11.73%) influenza pandemics were compared against vaccine intervention scenarios, at 40% coverage, 40% efficacy, and unit cost of $28.62. Sensitivity analysis for vaccine compliance, vaccine efficacy and vaccine start date was also conducted. Vaccine prioritization criteria include risk of death, total deaths, net benefits, and return on investment. The risk of death is the highest among the high-risk 65+ years subpopulation in the catastrophic influenza pandemic, and highest among the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The proportion of total deaths and net benefits are the highest among the high-risk 20-64 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The return on investment is the highest in the high-risk 0-19 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. Based on risk of death and return on investment, high-risk groups of the three age group subpopulations can be prioritized for vaccination, and the vaccine interventions are cost saving for all age and risk groups. The attack rates among the children are higher than among the adults and seniors in the catastrophic, strong, and moderate influenza pandemic scenarios, due to their larger social contact network and homophilous interactions in school. Based on return on investment and higher attack rates among children, we recommend prioritizing children (0-19 years) and seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies. Based on risk of death, we recommend prioritizing seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies.

EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events,currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERS continuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries it has enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, lessons learnt from participating in a forecasting tournament, and our perspectives on the limits of forecasting including ethical considerations.

Detecting and forecasting civil unrest events (protests, strikes, etc.) is of key interest to social scientists and policy makers because these events can lead to significant societal and cultural changes. We analyze protest dynamics in six countries of Latin America on a daily level, from November 2012 through August 2014, using multiple data sources that capture social, political and economic contexts within which civil unrest occurs. We use logistic regression models with Lasso to select a sparse feature set from our diverse datasets, in order to predict the probability of occurrence of civil unrest events in these countries. The models contain predictors extracted from social media sites (Twitter and blogs) and news sources, in addition to volume of requests to Tor, a widely-used anonymity network. Two political event databases and country-specific exchange rates are also used. Our forecasting models are evaluated using a Gold Standard Report (GSR), which is compiled by an independent group of social scientists and experts on Latin America. The experimental results, measured by F1-scores, are in the range 0.68 to 0.95, and demonstrate the efficacy of using a multi-source approach for predicting civil unrest. Case studies illustrate the insights into unrest events that are obtained with our methods.

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the June 2013 protests in Brazil and Feb 2014 violent protests in Venezuela. We outline the system architecture of EMBERS, individual models that leverage specific data sources, and a fusion and suppression engine that supports trading off specific evaluation criteria. EMBERS also provides an audit trail interface that enables the investigation of why specific predictions were made along with the data utilized for forecasting. Through numerous evaluations, we demonstrate the superiority of EMBERS over baserate methods and its capability to forecast significant societal happenings.

We describe a first principles based integrated modeling environment to study urban socio-communication networks which represent not just the physical cellular communication network, but also urban populations carrying digital devices interacting with the cellular network. The modeling environment is designed specifically to understand spectrum demand and dynamic cellular network traffic. One of its key features is its ability to support individual-based models at highly resolved spatial and temporal scales. We have instantiated the modeling environment by developing detailed models of population mobility, device ownership, calling patterns and call network. By composing these models using an appropriate in-built workflow, we obtain an integrated model that represents a dynamic socio-communication network for an entire urban region. In contrast with earlier papers that typically use proprietary data, these models use open source and commercial data sets. The dynamic model represents for a normative day, every individual in an entire region, with detailed demographics, a minute-by-minute schedule of each person's activities, the locations where these activities take place, and calling behavior of every individual. As an illustration of the applicability of the modeling environment, we have developed such a dynamic model for Portland, Oregon comprising of approximately 1.6 million individuals. We highlight the unique features of the models and the modeling environment by describing three realistic case studies.

We employ Add Health data to show that friendship networks, constructed from mutual friendship nominations, are important in building weight perception, setting weight goals and measuring social marginalization among adolescents and young adults. We study the relationship between individuals' perceived weight status, actual weight status, weight status relative to friends' weight status and weight goals. This analysis helps us understand how individual weight perceptions might be formed, what these perceptions do to the weight goals, and how does friends' relative weight affect weight perception and weight goals. Combining this information with individuals' friendship network helps determine the influence of social relationships on weight related variables. Multinomial logistic regression results indicate that relative status is indeed a significant predictor of perceived status, and perceived status is a significant predictor of weight goals. We also address the issue of causality between actual weight status and social marginalization (as measured by the number of friends) and show that obesity precedes social marginalization in time rather than the other way around. This lends credence to the hypothesis that obesity leads to social marginalization not vice versa. Attributes of friendship network can provide new insights into effective interventions for combating obesity since adolescent friendships provide an important social context for weight related behaviors.

We study the interaction between communication protocols, network topology and packet traffic in wireless static radio networks. A particular interest is to empirically characterize the effect of interaction between the routing layer and the MAC layer on overall system performance. Three well-known MAC protocols: 802.11, CSMA and MACA are considered. Similarly three recently proposed routing protocols: AODV, DSR and LAR scheme 1 are considered. The performance of the protocols is measured with regard to three important parameters: (i) number of packets received, (ii) average latency of each packet and (iii) long term fairness. We use a simple statistical technique based on ANOVA (analysis of variance), to characterize the effect of interaction between protocols and various input parameters on network performance. This technique is of independent interest and can be utilized in other simulation studies. Using our methodology, we conclude that different combinations of routing and MAC protocols yield varying performance under varying network topology and traffic situations. Our results show that no combination of routing protocol and MAC protocol is the best over all situations. An important implication of the study is that the performance analysis of protocols at a given level in the protocol stack needs to be studied not locally in isolation but as a part of the complete protocol stack.

We empirically study the effect of mobility and interaction between various input parameters on the performance of protocols designed for wireless ad-hoc networks. An important objective is to study the interaction of the routing and MAC layer protocols under different mobility parameters. We use three basic mobility models: grid mobility model, random waypoint model, and exponential correlated random model. The performance of protocols is measured in terms of various quality of service measures including (i) latency, (ii) throughput, (iii) number of packets received and (iv) long term fairness. Three different commonly studied routing protocols are used: AODV, DSR and LAR scheme 1. Similarly three well known MAC protocols are used: MACA, 802.11 and CSMA.Our main contribution is simulation based experiments coupled with emph rigorous statistical analysis to characterize the emph interaction between the above stated parameters. Such methods allow us to analyze complicated experiments with large input space in a systematic manner. From our results, we conclude the following: