In goal-oriented requirements engineering approaches, conflict analysis has been proposed as an abstraction for risk analysis. Intuitively, given a set of expected goals to be achieved by the system-to-be, a conflict represents a subtle situation that makes goals diverge, i.e., not be satisfiable as a whole. Conflict analysis is typically driven by the identify-assess-control cycle, aimed at identifying, assessing and resolving conflicts that may obstruct the satisfaction of the expected goals. In particular, the assessment step is concerned with evaluating how likely the identified conflicts are, and how likely and severe are their consequences.