We consider the problem of estimating the latent structure of a social network based on the observed information diffusion events, or cascades, where the observations for a given cascade consist of only the timestamps of infection for infected nodes but not the source of the infection. Most of the existing work on this problem has focused on estimating a diffusion matrix without any structural assumptions on it. In this paper, we propose a novel model based on the intuition that an information is more likely to propagate among two nodes if they are interested in similar topics which are also prominent in the information content. In particular, our model endows each node with an influence vector (which measures how authoritative the node is on each topic) and a receptivity vector (which measures how susceptible the node is for each topic). We show how this node-topic structure can be estimated from the observed cascades, and prove the consistency of the estimator. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the improved performance and better interpretability of our model compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

Probabilistic graphical models provide a flexible yet parsimonious framework for modeling dependencies among nodes in networks. There is a vast literature on parameter estimation and consistent model selection for graphical models. However, in many of the applications, scientists are also interested in quantifying the uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters and selected models, which current literature has not addressed thoroughly. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for statistical inference on edge parameters in pairwise graphical models based on generalized Hyvarinen scoring rule. Hyvarinen scoring rule is especially useful in cases where the normalizing constant cannot be obtained efficiently in a closed form, which is a common problem for graphical models, including Ising models and truncated Gaussian graphical models. Our estimator allows us to perform statistical inference for general graphical models whereas the existing works mostly focus on statistical inference for Gaussian graphical models where finding normalizing constant is computationally tractable. Under mild conditions that are typically assumed in the literature for consistent estimation, we prove that our proposed estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically normal, which allows us to construct confidence intervals and build hypothesis tests for edge parameters. Moreover, we show how our proposed method can be applied to test hypotheses that involve a large number of model parameters simultaneously. We illustrate validity of our estimator through extensive simulation studies on a diverse collection of data-generating processes.

Traditional works on community detection from observations of information cascade assume that a single adjacency matrix parametrizes all the observed cascades. However, in reality the connection structure usually does not stay the same across cascades. For example, different people have different topics of interest, therefore the connection structure depends on the information/topic content of the cascade. In this paper we consider the case where we observe a sequence of noisy adjacency matrices triggered by information/events with different topic distributions. We propose a novel latent model using the intuition that a connection is more likely to exist between two nodes if they are interested in similar topics, which are common with the information/event. Specifically, we endow each node with two node-topic vectors: an influence vector that measures how influential/authoritative they are on each topic; and a receptivity vector that measures how receptive/susceptible they are to each topic. We show how these two node-topic structures can be estimated from observed adjacency matrices with theoretical guarantee on estimation error, in cases where the topic distributions of the information/events are known, as well as when they are unknown. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the effectiveness of our model and superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.

We study the safe reinforcement learning problem with nonlinear function approximation, where policy optimization is formulated as a constrained optimization problem with both the objective and the constraint being nonconvex functions. For such a problem, we construct a sequence of surrogate convex constrained optimization problems by replacing the nonconvex functions locally with convex quadratic functions obtained from policy gradient estimators. We prove that the solutions to these surrogate problems converge to a stationary point of the original nonconvex problem. Furthermore, to extend our theoretical results, we apply our algorithm to examples of optimal control and multi-agent reinforcement learning with safety constraints.

The success of machine learning methods heavily relies on having an appropriate representation for data at hand. Traditionally, machine learning approaches relied on user-defined heuristics to extract features encoding structural information about data. However, recently there has been a surge in approaches that learn how to encode the data automatically in a low dimensional space. Exponential family embedding provides a probabilistic framework for learning low-dimensional representation for various types of high-dimensional data. Though successful in practice, theoretical underpinnings for exponential family embeddings have not been established. In this paper, we study the Gaussian embedding model and develop the first theoretical results for exponential family embedding models. First, we show that, under a mild condition, the embedding structure can be learned from one observation by leveraging the parameter sharing between different contexts even though the data are dependent with each other. Second, we study properties of two algorithms used for learning the embedding structure and establish convergence results for each of them. The first algorithm is based on a convex relaxation, while the other solved the non-convex formulation of the problem directly. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

We consider the problem of estimating the latent structure of a social network based on observational data on information diffusion processes, or cascades. Here for a given cascade, we only observe the time a node/agent is infected but not the source of infection. Existing literature has focused on estimating network diffusion matrix without any underlying assumptions on the structure of the network. We propose a novel model for inferring network diffusion matrix based on the intuition that an information datum is more likely to propagate among two nodes if they are interested in similar topics, which are common with the information. In particular, our model endows each node with an influence vector (how authoritative they are on each topic) and a receptivity vector (how susceptible they are on each topic). We show how this node-topic structure can be estimated from observed cascades. The estimated model can be used to build recommendation system based on the receptivity vectors, as well as for marketing based on the influence vectors.

Probabilistic graphical models have been widely used to model complex systems and aid scientific discoveries. As a result, there is a large body of literature focused on consistent model selection. However, scientists are often interested in understanding uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters, which current literature has not addressed thoroughly. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for edge parameters for pairwise graphical models based on Hyv\"arinen scoring rule. Hyv\"arinen scoring rule is especially useful in cases where the normalizing constant cannot be obtained efficiently in a closed form. We prove that the estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically Normal. This result allows us to construct confidence intervals for edge parameters, as well as, hypothesis tests. We establish our results under conditions that are typically assumed in the literature for consistent estimation. However, we do not require that the estimator consistently recovers the graph structure. In particular, we prove that the asymptotic distribution of the estimator is robust to model selection mistakes and uniformly valid for a large number of data-generating processes. We illustrate validity of our estimator through extensive simulation studies.