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Julie Gershunskaya

dblp:429/6035 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
0as first author
1since 2021 · last 2026
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Theoretical computer science
1 paper
Mathematical optimization · 100%
Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning · 100%

Topics — the 4 heaviest of 4, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Mathematical optimization
statistical estimation
1.012026
Simulation-based Calibration of Uncertainty Intervals under Approximate Bayesian Estimation · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2026
Mathematical optimization
uncertainty quantification
1.012026
Simulation-based Calibration of Uncertainty Intervals under Approximate Bayesian Estimation · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2026
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › bayesian inference
approximate bayesian inference
0.312026
Simulation-based Calibration of Uncertainty Intervals under Approximate Bayesian Estimation · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2026
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › probabilistic inference › approximate inference
variational inference
0.312026
Simulation-based Calibration of Uncertainty Intervals under Approximate Bayesian Estimation · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2026

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

simulation-based calibration · 2.0monte carlo simulation · 2.0mean field variational bayes · 2.0
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2026 Simulation-based Calibration of Uncertainty Intervals under Approximate Bayesian Estimation
abstract
The mean field variational Bayes (VB) algorithm implemented in Stan is relatively fast and efficient, making it feasible to produce model-estimated official statistics on a rapid timeline. Yet, while consistent point estimates of parameters are achieved for continuous data models, the mean field approximation often produces inaccurate uncertainty quantification to the extent that parameters are correlated a posteriori. In this paper, we propose a simulation procedure that calibrates uncertainty intervals for model parameters estimated under approximate algorithms to achieve nominal coverages. Our procedure detects and corrects biased estimation of both first and second moments of approximate marginal posterior distributions induced by any estimation algorithm that produces consistent first moments under specification of the correct model. The method generates replicate data sets using parameters estimated in an initial model run. The model is subsequently re-estimated on each replicate data set, and we use the empirical distribution over the re-samples to formulate calibrated confidence intervals of parameter estimates of the initial model run that are guaranteed to asymptotically achieve nominal coverage. We demonstrate the performance of our procedure in Monte Carlo simulation study and apply it to real data from the Current Employment Statistics survey.
Terrance D. Savitsky, Julie Gershunskaya
J. Mach. Learn. Res.2