MOTIVATION: Set-based variance component tests have been identified as a way to increase power in association studies by aggregating weak individual effects. However, the choice of test statistic has been largely ignored even though it may play an important role in obtaining optimal power. We compared a standard statistical test-a score test-with a recently developed likelihood ratio (LR) test. Further, when correction for hidden structure is needed, or gene-gene interactions are sought, state-of-the art algorithms for both the score and LR tests can be computationally impractical. Thus we develop new computationally efficient methods. RESULTS: After reviewing theoretical differences in performance between the score and LR tests, we find empirically on real data that the LR test generally has more power. In particular, on 15 of 17 real datasets, the LR test yielded at least as many associations as the score test-up to 23 more associations-whereas the score test yielded at most one more association than the LR test in the two remaining datasets. On synthetic data, we find that the LR test yielded up to 12% more associations, consistent with our results on real data, but also observe a regime of extremely small signal where the score test yielded up to 25% more associations than the LR test, consistent with theory. Finally, our computational speedups now enable (i) efficient LR testing when the background kernel is full rank, and (ii) efficient score testing when the background kernel changes with each test, as for gene-gene interaction tests. The latter yielded a factor of 2000 speedup on a cohort of size 13 500. AVAILABILITY: Software available at http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/redmond/projects/MSCompBio/Fastlmm/. CONTACT: [email protected] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

MOTIVATION: Approaches for testing sets of variants, such as a set of rare or common variants within a gene or pathway, for association with complex traits are important. In particular, set tests allow for aggregation of weak signal within a set, can capture interplay among variants and reduce the burden of multiple hypothesis testing. Until now, these approaches did not address confounding by family relatedness and population structure, a problem that is becoming more important as larger datasets are used to increase power. RESULTS: We introduce a new approach for set tests that handles confounders. Our model is based on the linear mixed model and uses two random effects-one to capture the set association signal and one to capture confounders. We also introduce a computational speedup for two random-effects models that makes this approach feasible even for extremely large cohorts. Using this model with both the likelihood ratio test and score test, we find that the former yields more power while controlling type I error. Application of our approach to richly structured Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 data demonstrates that our method successfully corrects for population structure and family relatedness, whereas application of our method to a 15 000 individual Crohn's disease case-control cohort demonstrates that it additionally recovers genes not recoverable by univariate analysis. AVAILABILITY: A Python-based library implementing our approach is available at http://mscompbio.codeplex.com.

HIV avoids elimination by cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) through the evolution of escape mutations. Although there is mounting evidence that these escape pathways are broadly consistent among individuals with similar human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I alleles, previous population-based studies have been limited by the inability to simultaneously account for HIV codon covariation, linkage disequilibrium among HLA alleles, and the confounding effects of HIV phylogeny when attempting to identify HLA-associated viral evolution. We have developed a statistical model of evolution, called a phylogenetic dependency network, that accounts for these three sources of confounding and identifies the primary sources of selection pressure acting on each HIV codon. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate the utility of this approach for identifying sites of HLA-mediated selection pressure and codon evolution as well as the deleterious effects of failing to account for all three sources of confounding. We then apply our approach to a large, clinically-derived dataset of Gag p17 and p24 sequences from a multicenter cohort of 1144 HIV-infected individuals from British Columbia, Canada (predominantly HIV-1 clade B) and Durban, South Africa (predominantly HIV-1 clade C). The resulting phylogenetic dependency network is dense, containing 149 associations between HLA alleles and HIV codons and 1386 associations among HIV codons. These associations include the complete reconstruction of several recently defined escape and compensatory mutation pathways and agree with emerging data on patterns of epitope targeting. The phylogenetic dependency network adds to the growing body of literature suggesting that sites of escape, order of escape, and compensatory mutations are largely consistent even across different clades, although we also identify several differences between clades. As recent case studies have demonstrated, understanding both the complexity and the consistency of immune escape has important implications for CTL-based vaccine design. Phylogenetic dependency networks represent a major step toward systematically expanding our understanding of CTL escape to diverse populations and whole viral genes.

High-resolution HLA typing plays a central role in many areas of immunology, such as in identifying immunogenetic risk factors for disease, in studying how the genomes of pathogens evolve in response to immune selection pressures, and also in vaccine design, where identification of HLA-restricted epitopes may be used to guide the selection of vaccine immunogens. Perhaps one of the most immediate applications is in direct medical decisions concerning the matching of stem cell transplant donors to unrelated recipients. However, high-resolution HLA typing is frequently unavailable due to its high cost or the inability to re-type historical data. In this paper, we introduce and evaluate a method for statistical, in silico refinement of ambiguous and/or low-resolution HLA data. Our method, which requires an independent, high-resolution training data set drawn from the same population as the data to be refined, uses linkage disequilibrium in HLA haplotypes as well as four-digit allele frequency data to probabilistically refine HLA typings. Central to our approach is the use of haplotype inference. We introduce new methodology to this area, improving upon the Expectation-Maximization (EM)-based approaches currently used within the HLA community. Our improvements are achieved by using a parsimonious parameterization for haplotype distributions and by smoothing the maximum likelihood (ML) solution. These improvements make it possible to scale the refinement to a larger number of alleles and loci in a more computationally efficient and stable manner. We also show how to augment our method in order to incorporate ethnicity information (as HLA allele distributions vary widely according to race/ethnicity as well as geographic area), and demonstrate the potential utility of this experimentally. A tool based on our approach is freely available for research purposes at http://microsoft.com/science.

The identification of T cell epitopes and their HLA (human leukocyte antigen) restrictions is important for applications such as the design of cellular vaccines for HIV. Traditional methods for such identification are costly and time-consuming. Recently, a more expeditious laboratory technique using ELISpot assays has been developed that allows for rapid screening of specific responses. However, this assay does not directly provide information concerning the HLA restriction of a response, a critical piece of information for vaccine design. Thus, we introduce, apply, and validate a statistical model for identifying HLA-restricted epitopes from ELISpot data. By looking at patterns across a broad range of donors, in conjunction with our statistical model, we can determine (probabilistically) which of the HLA alleles are likely to be responsible for the observed reactivities. Additionally, we can provide a good estimate of the number of false positives generated by our analysis (i.e., the false discovery rate). This model allows us to learn about new HLA-restricted epitopes from ELISpot data in an efficient, cost-effective, and high-throughput manner. We applied our approach to data from donors infected with HIV and identified many potential new HLA restrictions. Among 134 such predictions, six were confirmed in the lab and the remainder could not be ruled as invalid. These results shed light on the extent of HLA class I promiscuity, which has significant implications for the understanding of HLA class I antigen presentation and vaccine development.

We present a model for predicting HLA class I restricted CTL epitopes. In contrast to almost all other work in this area, we train a single model on epitopes from all HLA alleles and supertypes, yet retain the ability to make epitope predictions for specific HLA alleles. We are therefore able to leverage data across all HLA alleles and/or their supertypes, automatically learning what information should be shared and also how to combine allele-specific, supertype-specific, and global information in a principled way. We show that this leveraging can improve prediction of epitopes having HLA alleles with known supertypes, and dramatically increases our ability to predict epitopes having alleles which do not fall into any of the known supertypes. Our model, which is based on logistic regression, is simple to implement and understand, is solved by finding a single global maximum, and is more accurate (to our knowledge) than any other model. These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.