The massive assessment of immune evasion due to viral mutations that increase COVID-19 susceptibility can be computationally facilitated. The adaptive cytotoxic T response is critical during primary infection and the generation of long-term protection. Here, potential HLA class I epitopes in the SARS-CoV-2 proteome were predicted for 2,915 human alleles of 71 families using the netMHCIpan EL algorithm. Allele families showed extreme epitopic differences, underscoring genetic variability of protective capacity between humans. Up to 1,222 epitopes were associated with any of the twelve supertypes, that is, allele clusters covering 90% population. Next, from all mutations identified in ~118,000 viral NCBI isolates, those causing significant epitope score reduction were considered epitope escape mutations. These mutations mainly involved non-conservative substitutions at the second and C-terminal position of the ligand core, or total ligand removal by large recurrent deletions. Escape mutations affected 47% of supertype epitopes, which in 21% of cases concerned isolates from two or more sub-continental areas. Some of these changes were coupled, but never surpassed 15% of evaded epitopes for the same supertype in the same isolate, except for B27. In contrast to most supertypes, eight allele families mostly contained alleles with few SARS-CoV-2 ligands. Isolates harboring cytotoxic escape mutations for these families co-existed geographically within sub-Saharan and Asian populations enriched in these alleles according to the Allele Frequency Net Database. Collectively, our findings indicate that escape mutation events have already occurred for half of HLA class I supertype epitopes. However, it is presently unlikely that, overall, it poses a threat to the global population. In contrast, single and double mutations for susceptible alleles may be associated with viral selective pressure and alarming local outbreaks. The integration of genomic, geographical and immunoinformatic information eases the surveillance of variants potentially affecting the global population, as well as minority subpopulations.

MOTIVATION: The analysis of co-evolving residues has been exhaustively evaluated for the prediction of intramolecular amino acid contacts in soluble proteins. Although a variety of different methods for the detection of these co-evolving residues have been developed, the fraction of correctly predicted contacts remained insufficient for their reliable application in the construction of structural models. Membrane proteins, which constitute between one-fourth and one-third of all proteins in an organism, were only considered in few individual case studies. RESULTS: We present the first general study of correlated mutations in alpha-helical membrane proteins. Using seven different prediction algorithms, we extracted co-evolving residues for 14 membrane proteins having a solved 3D structure. On average, distances between correlated pairs of residues lying on different transmembrane segments were found to be significantly smaller compared to a random prediction. Covariation of residues was frequently found in direct sequence neighborhood to helix-helix contacts. Based on the results obtained from individual prediction methods, we constructed a consensus prediction for every protein in the dataset that combines obtained correlations from different prediction algorithms and simultaneously removes likely false positives. Using this consensus prediction, 53% of all predicted residue pairs were found within one helix turn of an observed helix-helix contact. Based on the combination of co-evolving residues detected with the four best prediction algorithms, interacting helices could be predicted with a specificity of 83% and sensitivity of 42%. AVAILABILITY: http://webclu.bio.wzw.tum.de/helixcorr/

MOTIVATION: Obtaining soluble proteins in sufficient concentrations is a recurring limiting factor in various experimental studies. Solubility is an individual trait of proteins which, under a given set of experimental conditions, is determined by their amino acid sequence. Accurate theoretical prediction of solubility from sequence is instrumental for setting priorities on targets in large-scale proteomics projects. RESULTS: We present a machine-learning approach called PROSO to assess the chance of a protein to be soluble upon heterologous expression in Escherichia coli based on its amino acid composition. The classification algorithm is organized as a two-layered structure in which the output of primary support vector machine (SVM) classifiers serves as input for a secondary Naive Bayes classifier. Experimental progress information from the TargetDB database as well as previously published datasets were used as the source of training data. In comparison with previously published methods our classification algorithm possesses improved discriminatory capacity characterized by the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of 0.434 between predicted and known solubility states and the overall prediction accuracy of 72% (75 and 68% for positive and negative class, respectively). We also provide experimental verification of our predictions using solubility measurements for 31 mutational variants of two different proteins.