Identifying changes in model parameters is fundamental in machine learning and statistics. However, standard changepoint models are limited in expressiveness, often addressing unidimensional problems and assuming instantaneous changes. We introduce change surfaces as a multidimensional and highly expressive generalization of changepoints. We provide a model-agnostic formalization of change surfaces, illustrating how they can provide variable, heterogeneous, and non-monotonic rates of change across multiple dimensions. Additionally, we show how change surfaces can be used for counterfactual prediction. As a concrete instantiation of the change surface framework, we develop Gaussian Process Change Surfaces (GPCS). We demonstrate counterfactual prediction with Bayesian posterior mean and credible sets, as well as massive scalability by introducing novel methods for additive non-separable kernels. Using two large spatio-temporal datasets we employ GPCS to discover and characterize complex changes that can provide scientific and policy relevant insights. Specifically, we analyze twentieth century measles incidence across the United States and discover previously unknown heterogeneous changes after the introduction of the measles vaccine. Additionally, we apply the model to requests for lead testing kits in New York City, discovering distinct spatial and demographic patterns.

We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modelling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensonal GP models in O(n) time and memory complexity. While existing literature has focused on the connection between GP regression and state space methods, the computational primitives allowing for inference using general likelihoods in combination with the Laplace approximation (LA), variational Bayes (VB), and assumed density filtering (ADF) / expectation propagation (EP) schemes has been largely overlooked. We present means of combining the efficient O(n) state space methodology with existing inference methods. We also furher extend existing methods, and provide unifying code implementing all approaches.

For applications as varied as Bayesian neural networks, determinantal point processes, elliptical graphical models, and kernel learning for Gaussian processes (GPs), one must compute a log determinant of an n by n positive definite matrix, and its derivatives---leading to prohibitive O(n^3) computations. We propose novel O(n) approaches to estimating these quantities from only fast matrix vector multiplications (MVMs). These stochastic approximations are based on Chebyshev, Lanczos, and surrogate models, and converge quickly even for kernel matrices that have challenging spectra. We leverage these approximations to develop a scalable Gaussian process approach to kernel learning. We find that Lanczos is generally superior to Chebyshev for kernel learning, and that a surrogate approach can be highly efficient and accurate with popular kernels.

We present a scalable Gaussian process model for identifying and characterizing smooth multidimensional changepoints, and automatically learning changes in expressive covariance structure. We use Random Kitchen Sink features to flexibly define a change surface in combination with expressive spectral mixture kernels to capture the complex statistical structure. Finally, through the use of novel methods for additive non-separable kernels, we can scale the model to large datasets. We demonstrate the model on numerical and real world data, including a large spatio-temporal disease dataset where we identify previously unknown heterogeneous changes in space and time.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a flexible class of methods with state of the art performance on spatial statistics applications. However, GPs require O(n^3) computations and O(n^2) storage, and popular GP kernels are typically limited to smoothing and interpolation. To address these difficulties, Kronecker methods have been used to exploit structure in the GP covariance matrix for scalability, while allowing for expressive kernel learning (Wilson et al., 2014). However, fast Kronecker methods have been confined to Gaussian likelihoods. We propose new scalable Kronecker methods for Gaussian processes with non-Gaussian likelihoods, using a Laplace approximation which involves linear conjugate gradients for inference, and a lower bound on the GP marginal likelihood for kernel learning. Our approach has near linear scaling, requiring O(D n^(D+1)/D) operations and O(D n^2/D) storage, for n training data-points on a dense D > 1 dimensional grid. Moreover, we introduce a log Gaussian Cox process, with highly expressive kernels, for modelling spatiotemporal count processes, and apply it to a point pattern (n = 233,088) of a decade of crime events in Chicago. Using our model, we discover spatially varying multiscale seasonal trends and produce highly accurate long-range local area forecasts.

We introduce a new structured kernel interpolation (SKI) framework, which generalises and unifies inducing point methods for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs). SKI methods produce kernel approximations for fast computations through kernel interpolation. The SKI framework clarifies how the quality of an inducing point approach depends on the number of inducing (aka interpolation) points, interpolation strategy, and GP covariance kernel. SKI also provides a mechanism to create new scalable kernel methods, through choosing different kernel interpolation strategies. Using SKI, with local cubic kernel interpolation, we introduce KISS-GP, which is 1) more scalable than inducing point alternatives, 2) naturally enables Kronecker and Toeplitz algebra for substantial additional gains in scalability, without requiring any grid data, and 3) can be used for fast and expressive kernel learning. KISS-GP costs O(n) time and storage for GP inference. We evaluate KISS-GP for kernel matrix approximation, kernel learning, and natural sound modelling.

We study the problem of object recognition for categories for which we have no training examples, a task also called zero--data or zero-shot learning. This situation has hardly been studied in computer vision research, even though it occurs frequently; the world contains tens of thousands of different object classes, and image collections have been formed and suitably annotated for only a few of them. To tackle the problem, we introduce attribute-based classification: Objects are identified based on a high-level description that is phrased in terms of semantic attributes, such as the object's color or shape. Because the identification of each such property transcends the specific learning task at hand, the attribute classifiers can be prelearned independently, for example, from existing image data sets unrelated to the current task. Afterward, new classes can be detected based on their attribute representation, without the need for a new training phase. In this paper, we also introduce a new data set, Animals with Attributes, of over 30,000 images of 50 animal classes, annotated with 85 semantic attributes. Extensive experiments on this and two more data sets show that attribute-based classification indeed is able to categorize images without access to any training images of the target classes.

We introduce a Gaussian process model of functions which are additive. An additive function is one which decomposes into a sum of low-dimensional functions, each depending on only a subset of the input variables. Additive GPs generalize both Generalized Additive Models, and the standard GP models which use squared-exponential kernels. Hyperparameter learning in this model can be seen as Bayesian Hierarchical Kernel Learning (HKL). We introduce an expressive but tractable parameterization of the kernel function, which allows efficient evaluation of all input interaction terms, whose number is exponential in the input dimension. The additional structure discoverable by this model results in increased interpretability, as well as state-of-the-art predictive power in regression tasks.

Many problems of low-level computer vision and image processing, such as denoising, deconvolution, tomographic reconstruction or superresolution, can be addressed by maximizing the posterior distribution of a sparse linear model (SLM). We show how higher-order Bayesian decision-making problems, such as optimizing image acquisition in magnetic resonance scanners, can be addressed by querying the SLM posterior covariance, unrelated to the density's mode. We propose a scalable algorithmic framework, with which SLM posteriors over full, high-resolution images can be approximated for the first time, solving a variational optimization problem which is convex if and only if posterior mode finding is convex. These methods successfully drive the optimization of sampling trajectories for real-world magnetic resonance imaging through Bayesian experimental design, which has not been attempted before. Our methodology provides new insight into similarities and differences between sparse reconstruction and approximate Bayesian inference, and has important implications for compressive sensing of real-world images. Parts of this work have been presented at conferences [M. Seeger, H. Nickisch, R. Pohmann, and B. Schölkopf, in Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 21, D. Koller, D. Schuurmans, Y. Bengio, and L. Bottou, eds., Curran Associates, Red Hook, NY, 2009, pp. 1441–1448; H. Nickisch and M. Seeger, in Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on Machine Learning, L. Bottou and M. Littman, eds., Omni Press, Madison, WI, 2009, pp. 761–768].

We study the problem of object classification when training and test classes are disjoint, i.e. no training examples of the target classes are available. This setup has hardly been studied in computer vision research, but it is the rule rather than the exception, because the world contains tens of thousands of different object classes and for only a very few of them image, collections have been formed and annotated with suitable class labels. In this paper, we tackle the problem by introducing attribute-based classification. It performs object detection based on a human-specified high-level description of the target objects instead of training images. The description consists of arbitrary semantic attributes, like shape, color or even geographic information. Because such properties transcend the specific learning task at hand, they can be pre-learned, e.g. from image datasets unrelated to the current task. Afterwards, new classes can be detected based on their attribute representation, without the need for a new training phase. In order to evaluate our method and to facilitate research in this area, we have assembled a new large-scale dataset, “Animals with Attributes”, of over 30,000 animal images that match the 50 classes in Osherson's classic table of how strongly humans associate 85 semantic attributes with animal classes. Our experiments show that by using an attribute layer it is indeed possible to build a learning object detection system that does not require any training images of the target classes.

We show how variational Bayesian inference can be implemented for very large generalized linear models. Our relaxation is proven to be a convex problem for any log-concave model. We provide a generic double loop algorithm for solving this relaxation on models with arbitrary super-Gaussian potentials. By iteratively decoupling the criterion, most of the work can be done by solving large linear systems, rendering our algorithm orders of magnitude faster than previously proposed solvers for the same problem. We evaluate our method on problems of Bayesian active learning for large binary classification models, and show how to address settings with many candidates and sequential inclusion steps.

We relate compressed sensing (CS) with Bayesian experimental design and provide a novel efficient approximate method for the latter, based on expectation propagation. In a large comparative study about linearly measuring natural images, we show that the simple standard heuristic of measuring wavelet coefficients top-down systematically outperforms CS methods using random measurements; the sequential projection optimisation approach of (Ji & Carin, 2007) performs even worse. We also show that our own approximate Bayesian method is able to learn measurement filters on full images efficiently which outperform the wavelet heuristic. To our knowledge, ours is the first successful attempt at "learning compressed sensing" for images of realistic size. In contrast to common CS methods, our framework is not restricted to sparse signals, but can readily be applied to other notions of signal complexity or noise models. We give concrete ideas how our method can be scaled up to large signal representations.

We show how improved sequences for magnetic resonance imaging can be found through automated optimization of Bayesian design scores. Combining recent advances in approximate Bayesian inference and natural image statistics with high-performance numerical computation, we propose the first scalable Bayesian experimental design framework for this problem of high relevance to clinical and brain research. Our solution requires approximate inference for dense, non-Gaussian models on a scale seldom addressed before. We propose a novel scalable variational inference algorithm, and show how powerful methods of numerical mathematics can be modified to compute primitives in our framework. Our approach is evaluated on a realistic setup with raw data from a 3T MR scanner.