Abstract We show that it is possible to achieve the same accuracy, on average, as the most accurate existing interval methods for time series classification on a standard set of benchmark datasets using a single type of feature (quantiles), fixed intervals, and an ‘off the shelf’ classifier. This distillation of interval-based approaches represents a fast and accurate method for time series classification, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy on the expanded set of 142 datasets in the UCR archive with a total compute time (training and inference) of less than 15 min using a single CPU core.

Abstract The ability to compute the exact divergence between two high-dimensional distributions is useful in many applications, but doing so naively is intractable. Computing the $$\alpha \beta $$ α β -divergence—a family of divergences that includes the Kullback–Leibler divergence and Hellinger distance—between the joint distribution of two decomposable models, i.e., chordal Markov networks, can be done in time exponential in the treewidth of these models. Extending this result, we propose an approach to compute the exact $$\alpha \beta $$ α β -divergence between any marginal or conditional distribution of two decomposable models. In order to do so tractably, we provide a decomposition over the marginal and conditional distributions of decomposable models. We then show how our method can be used to analyze distributional changes by first applying it to the benchmark image dataset QMNIST and a dataset containing observations from various areas at the Roosevelt Nation Forest and their cover type. Finally, based on our framework, we propose a novel way to quantify the error in contemporary superconducting quantum computers.

The ability to compute the exact divergence between two high-dimensional distributions is useful in many applications but doing so naively is intractable. Computing the alpha-beta divergence—a family of divergences that includes the Kullback-Leibler divergence and Hellinger distance—between the joint distribution of two decomposable models, i.e chordal Markov networks, can be done in time exponential in the treewidth of these models. However, reducing the dissimilarity between two high-dimensional objects to a single scalar value can be uninformative. Furthermore, in applications such as supervised learning, the divergence over a conditional distribution might be of more interest. Therefore, we propose an approach to compute the exact alpha-beta divergence between any marginal or conditional distribution of two decomposable models. Doing so tractably is non-trivial as we need to decompose the divergence between these distributions and therefore, require a decomposition over the marginal and conditional distributions of these models. Consequently, we provide such a decomposition and also extend existing work to compute the marginal and conditional alpha-beta divergence between these decompositions. We then show how our method can be used to analyze distributional changes by first applying it to a benchmark image dataset. Finally, based on our framework, we propose a novel way to quantify the error in contemporary superconducting quantum computers. Code for all experiments is available at: https://lklee.dev/pub/2023-icdm/code

Abstract We demonstrate a simple connection between dictionary methods for time series classification, which involve extracting and counting symbolic patterns in time series, and methods based on transforming input time series using convolutional kernels, namely Rocket and its variants. We show that by adjusting a single hyperparameter it is possible to move by degrees between models resembling dictionary methods and models resembling Rocket . We present Hydra , a simple, fast, and accurate dictionary method for time series classification using competing convolutional kernels, combining key aspects of both Rocket and conventional dictionary methods. Hydra is faster and more accurate than the most accurate existing dictionary methods, achieving similar accuracy to several of the most accurate current methods for time series classification. Hydra can also be combined with Rocket and its variants to significantly improve the accuracy of these methods.

A universal code for the (positive) integers is a variable length code that can be used to store or compress a sequence of integers. It also implies a probability distribution on integers which can be a natural choice when the true distribution of a source of integers is unknown; such a code and distribution may be useful in statistical inference. This paper provides two improvements to the theory and practice of universal codes. First, it defines and examines a new universal code omega* (omega-star) that asymptotically beats the Elias omega code. Second, it analyses the properties of a code proposed by Wallace based on trees, and shows it to be a universal code, to have desirable properties for use in inference, and to beat the Elias omega code on almost all integers up to the 1697-bit code-word mark. Encoding and decoding routines for the codes described here are implemented and available for interactive use.11The codes may be tried at www.allisons.org/ll/MML/Discrete/Universal/ ← click.

Rocket achieves state-of-the-art accuracy for time series classification with a fraction of the computational expense of most existing methods by transforming input time series using random convolutional kernels, and using the transformed features to train a linear classifier. We reformulate Rocket into a new method, MiniRocket. MiniRocket is up to 75 times faster than Rocket on larger datasets, and almost deterministic (and optionally, fully deterministic), while maintaining essentially the same accuracy. Using this method, it is possible to train and test a classifier on all of 109 datasets from the UCR archive to state-of-the-art accuracy in under 10 minutes. MiniRocket is significantly faster than any other method of comparable accuracy (including Rocket), and significantly more accurate than any other method of remotely similar computational expense.