High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.

High-resolution population datasets have been lever-aged across a broad swath of domains, such as climate change, public policy, humanitarian aid, and rescue operations, among others. Machine learning methods were adopted to generate high-resolution or gridded population estimates by using various geospatial input features such as buildings, roads, and nighttime lights. In this study, we evaluate the importance of population features using Random Forest models across three levels of analysis, utilizing permutation measures. Our research aims to address key questions to enhance our understanding of high-resolution population modeling, such as: Are certain features globally (10 countries collectively) more important than others? Do optimal features vary by country? Within each country, do feature importance differ across administrative units? What similarities exist in feature importance at the global, country, and administrative unit levels? To answer these questions, we leverage the Kneedle algorithm to automate the selection of optimum features. We find that there are patterns displayed by features across spatial boundaries, evidenced by the same feature being the most important indicator of population across 7 of the 10 countries modeled. Our findings indicate that while important features may vary across geographies, certain features consistently hold greater importance than others agnostic of geography.

Population growth is increasingly happening in slum settlements of the large urban centers in the Global South. The term "slum" encompasses a wide range of communities, located mostly in underserved areas, and often exhibiting distinct structural and functional informalities with a relatively high concentration of marginalized populations. To address the issues confronting slums for effective planning and development, including the realistic estimation of the resident population, identifying them accurately is fundamental. Given the disagreements over a universal definition, diverse characteristic features, and socio-political limitations, global detection of slums is a veritable challenge. In this paper, we present experiments in slum detection using a scene classification algorithm and 3-meter spatial resolution satellite imagery. We train and evaluate the model for slum detection in Mumbai, India for the year 2023 and test the temporal generalization of the trained model on Mumbai in 2020 and 2018. In addition, we explore the pathways toward geographic generalization to Kolkata and Delhi (India). We discuss several limitations in the workflow and model, situate our findings in the existing literature, and suggest improvements and alternatives. With this, we establish baseline methods and experiments as a first step towards developing an image-based global slum detection framework and algorithm. This work adds to the community discussion on methods, data challenges, and open questions related to the detection of slums globally. With this research, we hope to improve our understanding of human settlements, especially in critical areas, improve population estimates, and help measure progress towards the sustainable development goals.

Rapid building damage assessment (BDA) is vital in guiding disaster response missions and estimating population distribution across impacted areas. While commercial satellite imagery providers have enabled near-daily monitoring of the Earth, near-realtime assessment of disaster scenarios frequently requires analysis of off-nadir imagery, as satellites are often far from impacted areas for at-nadir post-event imaging to occur Such scenarios are, however, underrepresented in existing BDA datasets and methodologies. With this motivation, we investigate generalization capabilities of current BDA practices across overhead view-angles and strategies for their improvement. Using a labeled dataset of images capturing conflict-related damages, we first train a baseline BDA architecture using imbalanced and balanced datasets with respect to view-angle. Then, we explore conditional convolutions parameterized on image features, image nadir, and their combination as a mechanism for conditioning on view-angles. Experiments demonstrate the limitations of current practice and the potential of conditional mechanisms to increase model robustness to view-angle variations.

Understanding population at risks has been a focus of the LandScan program through its development of population estimates. With advancements in computer vision, deep learning technologies and access to High Performance Computing (HPC) and high resolution imagery, population estimates are now modeled at the building level. However, when those patterns are disrupted, rapid updates to population distribution estimates are needed to support humanitarian aid and response. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recently adapted an existing deep learning building footprint extraction model in development of a scalable approach to Building Damage Assessments (BDA). This new opportunity opens the possibility of automating BDA to support rapid population distribution estimate updates for geographic areas involved in geopolitical conflicts or natural events for humanitarian aid and response or where to focus recovery efforts. In addition, incorporate social surveys to further model human behavior under conflict or other scenarios that disrupt normal patterns of life.

Understanding how people occupy open spaces is important for research in support of population modeling, policy, national security, emergency response, and sustainability. For the past decade, there has been an increase in research toward capturing and reporting population dynamics and patterns of life at the building level and in some open public spaces such as cemeteries and parks. This is done through observation models developed from local sociocultural information acquired at various spatiotemporal scales to inform night, day, and episodic population occupancy estimates (people/1000 sq ft). Sociocultural information for cemeteries and parks is scarcely available and often collected manually. The process is not only marred by inconsistencies but is laborious and time consuming. In this study, we leverage convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and satellite imagery to derive grave site counts as proxy variables to support scalable and accurate sociocultural data required in a population observation model. Through a hybrid workflow (weak localization plus regression model), we characterize a large scale automation process to counting of grave sites. We evaluate and demonstrate the efficacy of proposed workflow using out-of-data set large satellite imagery and establish its broader impact on cemetery observation models.

The temporal nature of humans interaction with Points of Interest (POIs) in cities can differ depending on place type and regional location. Times when many people are likely to visit restaurants (place type) in Italy, may differ from times when many people are likely to visit restaurants in Lebanon (i.e. regional differences). Geosocial data are a powerful resource to model these temporal differences in cities, as traditional methods used to study cross-cultural differences do not scale to a global level. As cities continue to grow in population and economic development, research identifying the social and geophysical (e.g., climate) factors that influence city function remains important and incomplete. In this work, we take a quantitative approach, applying dynamic time warping and hierarchical clustering on temporal signatures to model geosocial temporal patterns for Retail and Restaurant Facebook POIs hours of operation for more than 100 cities in 90 countries around the world. Results show cities’ temporal patterns cluster to reflect the cultural region they represent. Furthermore, temporal patterns are influenced by a mix of social and geophysical factors. Trends in the data suggest social factors influence unique drops in temporal signatures, and geophysical factors influence when daily temporal patterns start and finish.

Crowd-sourced and volunteered information, social media, and participatory sensors are capable of providing real-time activity data. Monitoring these sources in time of relevance and then using them to gather operational knowledge is important during crisis management. Beyond that, it's important to curate this information for geo-spatial research purposes, including land use classification and population occupancy analysis. In this demonstration, we will showcase PlanetSense - a geo-spatial research platform built to harness the existing power of archived data and add to that, the dynamics of heterogeneous real-time streaming data from social media and volunteered sources, seamlessly integrated with sophisticated machine learning algorithms and visualization tools. A demonstration will focus on - 1) Recent initiative emphasizing the need to harness crowd-sources, volunteered, and social media data at scale; 2) Anatomy and insight into data collection workflow. We will show the ability to harvest and process several terabytes of raw data in real-time; 3) A detailed discussion with insight into more than 20 sources of data will be given. These sources include text, sensors, as well as imagery data; 4) PlanetSense's end to end distributed architecture will be discussed with focus on collecting and processing high-volumes of streaming data in a Geo-Data Cloud. Data fusion methods and algorithms for integrating disparate data sources with existing legacy products. Data analytics and machine learning methods for generating operational intelligence on the fly; 5) In addition, PlanetSense "App" platform will be shown with hands-on application enabling interested audience to quickly develop and deploy solutions. 6) Several case studies will be discussed relevant to, land use classification, monitoring transient population, high-resolution occupancy analysis, mapping special events population, ability to uncover global breaking events and reactions in near-real time, ability to track protest, unrest, and monitor other societal turbulences as they happen, and real-time monitoring of infrastructure outages.

Geospatial intelligence has traditionally relied on the use of archived and unvarying data for planning and exploration purposes. In consequence, the tools and methods that are architected to provide insight and generate projections only rely on such datasets. Albeit, if this approach has proven effective in several cases, such as land use identification and route mapping, it has severely restricted the ability of researchers to inculcate current information in their work. This approach is inadequate in scenarios requiring real-time information to act and to adjust in ever changing dynamic environments, such as evacuation and rescue missions. In this work, we propose PlanetSense, a platform for geospatial intelligence that is built to harness the existing power of archived data and add to that, the dynamics of real-time streams, seamlessly integrated with sophisticated data mining algorithms and analytics tools for generating operational intelligence on the fly. The platform has four main components -- i) GeoData Cloud -- a data architecture for storing and managing disparate datasets; ii) Mechanism to harvest real-time streaming data; iii) Data analytics framework; iv) Presentation and visualization through web interface and RESTful services. Using two case studies, we underpin the necessity of our platform in modeling ambient population and building occupancy at scale.