Large-scale prediction of trip production is essential for origin–destination (OD) demand estimation and prediction. One of the main challenges in predicting trip production patterns lies in addressing spatial-temporal correlations and variations. Whereas many studies focus on temporal correlations, very few consider spatial adjacency between traffic analysis zones (TAZ) as explanatory variables. This research proposes a method that integrates a graph convolutional neural network (GCN) into a long short-term memory network (LSTM) to do exactly that. By introducing a nationwide graph that encodes the adjacency of TAZs, spatial heterogeneity is considered in the prediction process, and a single prediction model is trained for the entire network, thereby avoiding the need to train multiple separate models and potentially reducing overall training overhead, while increasing the prediction accuracy. Moreover, with this model, we investigate the effect of spatial scale on spatial uncertainty and prediction accuracy and analyze prediction errors, residual patterns, and their associations with socio-spatial features at different spatial scales. The findings of this research have important implications for improving OD demand prediction models and provide valuable insights into the role of spatial scale and socio-spatial features in travel demand prediction.

Safety is the cornerstone of L2+ autonomous driving and one of the fundamental tasks is forward collision warning that detects potential rear-end collisions. Potential collisions are also known as conflicts, which have long been indicated using Time-to-Collision with a critical threshold to distinguish safe and unsafe situations. Such indication, however, focuses on a single scenario and cannot cope with dynamic traffic environments. For example, TTC-based crash warning frequently misses potential collisions in congested traffic, and issues false alarms during lane-changing or parking. Aiming to minimise missed and false alarms in conflict detection, this study proposes a more reliable approach based on vehicle spacing patterns. To test this approach, we use both synthetic and real-world conflict data. Our experiments show that the proposed approach outperforms single-threshold TTC unless conflicts happened in the exact way that TTC is defined, which is rarely true. When conflicts are heterogeneous and when the information of conflict situation is incompletely known, as is the case with real-world conflicts, our approach can achieve less missed and false detection. This study offers a new perspective for conflict detection, and also a general framework allowing for further elaboration to minimise missed and false alarms. Less missed alarms will contribute to fewer accidents, meanwhile, fewer false alarms will promote people’s trust in collision avoidance systems. We thus expect this study to contribute to safer and more trustworthy autonomous driving.

Conditionally automated driving enables drivers to engage in non-driving-related activities, with the responsibility to take over vehicle control upon request. This takeover process increases the risk of collisions, especially when drivers fail to safely complete takeovers within limited time budgets (i.e., the time offered by automation for takeovers). This phenomenon underlines the significance of providing time budgets that sufficiently accommodate drivers’ takeover time (i.e., the time required by drivers to resume conscious control of vehicles). Considering that drivers’ takeover time varies significantly across scenarios, this study centres on understanding the role of driver perception in takeover time using the Task-Capability Interface (TCI) theory. The TCI theory suggests that drivers adjust their behaviours based on their perceived task demands and driver capabilities. Accordingly, in a driving simulator experiment featuring diverse traffic densities and distractions, we investigated drivers’ takeover time while capturing their perceived task demands and capabilities through a takeover-oriented questionnaire based on established instruments. The results show that drivers generally have longer takeover time as their perceived task demand rises, perceived driver capability diminishes, and perceived spare capacity (perceived driver capability minus perceived task demand) decreases. These patterns fluctuate under conditions of low perceived task demand or high perceived driver capability. When both conditions coincide, drivers necessitate a considerably longer time to regain vehicle control. Our findings on takeover time contribute to the development of strategies aimed at predicting drivers’ takeover time, optimizing time budgets, fostering human-centred vehicle design, and enhancing the safety of conditionally automated driving.

Resolving predicted conflicts is vital for safe and efficient autonomous vehicles (AV). In practice, vehicular motion prediction faces inherent uncertainty due to heterogeneous driving behaviours and environments. This spatial uncertainty increases non-linearly with prediction time horizons, leading AVs to perceive more road space occupied by conflicting vehicles. Reacting early to resolve predicted conflicts can ensure safety but may adversely affect traffic efficiency. Therefore, determining how far ahead AVs should start resolving predicted conflicts based on safety and traffic efficiency constraints is crucial. To answer this question, this study proposes a novel approach to explore the trade-off between safety and traffic efficiency considering prediction uncertainty. Firstly, a continuous-time motion prediction framework is proposed for estimating the spatial probability distribution of a vehicle’s future position at any moment within the maximum time horizon. Subsequently, average driver space and the corresponding traffic flow are derived from the safety settings of AV and prediction uncertainty. As such, the safety-efficiency trade-off can be quantified. Experiments show that mandatory decision points, high speeds, and traffic state transitions usually cause fast-increasing prediction uncertainty. A case study of Intelligent Driver Models (IDM) shows that traffic efficiency drops rapidly when AVs resolve predicted conflicts longer than 1.5 seconds ahead. AVs can act earlier on motorways for efficiency concerns but must be myopic at urban intersections. Prediction uncertainty fundamentally constrains the safety-efficiency performance of AVs. These findings are instructive for designing traffic-compatible AVs.

The comparably low driving ranges of battery electric vehicles (BEV) cause time-consuming recharging stops if long distances have to be covered. Thus, navigation systems not only have to compute routes leading from the BEV’s current position to the destination, but also to plan recharging stops. This type of routing problem is often modeled as a constrained shortest path problem. The constraint ensures that the BEV does not run out of energy. In this paper, a de facto deterministic reformulation of this problem type is suggested, which allows handling uncertainty–particularly the risks resulting from imperfect energy consumption predictions. For this purpose, a certain part of the battery capacity is used as an energy buffer. Different approaches to dynamically optimize the size of this energy buffer in dependency of the expected level of uncertainty are proposed and a corresponding modification of a typical routing algorithm is described. Furthermore, a simulation study is conducted showing that the described framework allows keeping the probability to run out of energy close to zero (for the test settings: < 0.5%) as long as a suitable approach for defining the size of the energy buffer is applied.

Highway bottlenecks are responsible for the majority of traffic congestion. Although the problem of bottleneck detection is not new, contemporary methods have not solved the problem thoroughly with regards to bottleneck locations, activation time, and related congestion tracking. These elements are essential for identifying and characterizing a bottleneck. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for detecting and extracting these features of highway bottlenecks from traffic data. We particularly focus on questions (i) whether a bottleneck is the primary source of congestion or (ii) whether it is activated due to congestion caused by another downstream bottleneck. The underlying principles of the proposed method include the detection of congestion (in spatio-temporal patterns of traffic congestion), and the detection of speed discontinuities in traffic data (since this is an important indicator of a bottleneck activation). The method is data-driven and automatic therefore can be easily applied to different highways and used to obtain meaningful statistics of existing bottlenecks. We have tested the method on simulated data and also demonstrated it on real data from a busy highway section in the Netherlands. The results suggest that the method is robust to different implementations, i.e. locations, of loop-detectors which measure traffic at discrete locations.

Cooperative intelligent transportation systems (C-ITS) support the exchange of information between vehicles and infrastructure (V2I or I2V). This paper presents an in-vehicle C-ITS application to improve traffic efficiency around a merging section. The application balances the distribution of traffic over the available lanes of a freeway, by issuing targeted lane-changing advice to a selection of vehicles. We add to existing research by embedding multiple vehicle classes in the lane-changing advisory framework. We use a multi-class multi-lane macroscopic traffic flow model to design a feedback-feedforward control law that is based on a linear quadratic regulator (LQR). The weights of the LQR controller are fine-tuned using a response surface method. The performance of the proposed system is evaluated using a microscopic traffic simulator. The results indicate that the multi-class lane-changing advisory system is able to suppress shockwaves in traffic flow and can significantly alleviate congestion. Besides bringing substantial travel time benefits around merging sections of up to nearly 21%, the system dramatically reduces the variance of travel time losses in the system. The proposed system also seems to improve travel times for mainline and ramp vehicles by nearly 20% and 42%, respectively.

Scientific Workflow Applications (SWFA) play a vital role for both service consumers and service providers in designing and implementing large and complex scientific processes. Previously, researchers used parallel and distributed computing technologies, such as utility and grid computing to execute the SWFAs, these technologies provide limited utilization for the shared resources. In contrast, the scalability and flexibility challenges are better handled by using cloud-computing technologies for SWFA. Since cloud computing offers a technology that can significantly utilize the amounts of storage space and computing resources necessary for processing large-size and complex SWFAs. The workflow pattern design has provided the facility of re-using previously developed workflow solutions that enable the developers to adopt them for the considered SWFA. Inspired by this, the researchers have adopted several patterns of design to better design the SWFA. Effective pattern design that can consider challenges that may not become visible only in the implementation stage of a SWFA. However, the selection of the most effective pattern design in accordance with an execution method, data size, and problem complexity of a SWFA remains a challenging task. Motivated by this, we have proposed a conceptual framework that facilitates in recommending a suitable pattern design based on the quality requirements and capabilities are given and advertised by cloud consumers and providers, respectively. Finally, guidelines to assist in a smooth migrating of SWFA from other computation paradigms to cloud computing.

Graphs at different scales are essential tools for many transportation applications. Notwithstanding their relevance, these graphs are created and maintained manually for most applications, in both research and practice. In this paper, we develop a heuristic method for automatically generating multiscale graph representations without significantly compromising their topological properties. This makes the resulting graphs widely applicable. The method is demonstrated on the open street map network of Amsterdam with four different application cases. Various graph metrics are used for evaluating the performance of coarsening on the topological characteristics of the network. Our results show that the method is able to successfully reduce the Amsterdam network by up to 96% of its original size at a computation time of no more than 15 min with a limited loss of information, indicated by the preservation of key network characteristics. For example, the method maintains trip length distributions and limits the maximum shortest path deterioration between any major origin and destination nodes to no more than 0.025% for the coarsest graph. Moreover, by setting its parameters it can cater for preservation of important network elements or entire sub-networks, which is of special importance in multiscale traffic modeling and simulation. The versatility of the algorithm-in contrast to algorithms dedicated to for example traffic assignment applications-makes it useful for a wide range of applications within the transportation domain and beyond. To support further research an open-source implementation of the algorithm is made available.

Floating car data (FCD) denotes the type of data (location, speed, and destination) produced and broadcasted periodically by running vehicles. Increasingly, intelligent transportation systems take advantage of such data for prediction purposes as input to road and transit control and to discover useful mobility patterns with applications to transport service design and planning, to name just a few applications. However, there are considerable quality issues that affect the usefulness and efficacy of FCD in these many applications. In this paper, we propose a methodology to compute such quality indicators automatically for large FCD sets. It leverages on a set of statistical indicators (named Yuki-san) covering multiple dimensions of FCD such as spatio-temporal coverage, accuracy, and reliability. As such, the Yuki-san indicators provide a quick and intuitive means to assess the potential “value” and “veracity” characteristics of the data. Experimental results with two mobility-related data mining and supervised learning tasks on the basis of two real-world FCD sources show that the Yuki-san indicators are indeed consistent with how well the applications perform using the data. With a wider variety of FCD (e.g., from navigation systems and CAN buses) becoming available, further research and validation into the dimensions covered and the efficacy of the Yuki-San indicators is needed.

Current or historic traffic states are essential input to advanced traveler information, dynamic traffic management, and model predictive control systems. As traffic states are usually not perfectly measured and are everywhere, they need to be estimated from local and noisy sensor data. One of the most widely applied estimation methods is the Lighthill-Whitham and Richards (LWR) model with an extended Kalman filter (EKF). A large disadvantage of the EKF is that it is too slow to perform in real time on large networks. To overcome this problem, the novel localized EKF (L-EKF) is proposed in this paper. The logic of the traffic network is used to correct only the state in the vicinity of a detector. The L-EKF does not use all information available to correct the state of the network; the resulting accuracy is equal, however, if the radius of the local filters is sufficiently large. In two experiments, it is shown that the L-EKF is much faster than the traditional Global EKF (G-EKF), that it scales much better with the network size, and that it leads to estimates with nearly the same accuracy as the G-EKF and when the spacing between detectors is varied somewhere between 0.7 and 5.1 km. Compared with the G-EKF, the L-EKF is a highly scalable solution to the state estimation problem.

The ten papers in this special issue cover the full range of cooperative technologies in Intelligent Transportation Systems, from V2V and V2I, including cooperative traffic management to vehicle-to-driver cooperation. These papers are summarized here.

Freeway traffic state estimation and prediction are central components in real-time traffic management and information applications. Model-based traffic state estimators consist of a dynamic model for the state variables (e.g., a first- or second-order macroscopic traffic flow model), a set of observation equations relating sensor observations to the system state (e.g., the fundamental diagrams), and a data-assimilation technique to combine the model predictions with the sensor observations [e.g., the extended Kalman filter (EKF)]. Commonly, both process and observation models are formulated in Eulerian (space-time) coordinates. Recent studies have shown that this model can be formulated and solved more efficiently and accurately in Lagrangian (vehicle number-time) coordinates. In this paper, we propose a new model-based state estimator based on the EKF technique, in which the discretized Lagrangian Lighthill-Whitham and Richards (LWR) model is used as the process equation, and in which observation models for both Eulerian and Lagrangian sensor data (from loop detectors and vehicle trajectories, respectively) are incorporated. This Lagrangian state estimator is validated and compared with a Eulerian state estimator based on the same LWR model using an empirical microscopic traffic data set from the U.K. The results indicate that the Lagrangian estimator is significantly more accurate and offers computational and theoretical benefits over the Eulerian approach.

The accurate prediction of travel times is desirable but frequently prone to error. This is mainly attributable to both the underlying traffic processes and the data that are used to infer travel time. A more meaningful and pragmatic approach is to view travel time prediction as a probabilistic inference and to construct prediction intervals (PIs), which cover the range of probable travel times travelers may encounter. This paper introduces the delta and Bayesian techniques for the construction of PIs. Quantitative measures are developed and applied for a comprehensive assessment of the constructed PIs. These measures simultaneously address two important aspects of PIs: 1) coverage probability and 2) length. The Bayesian and delta methods are used to construct PIs for the neural network (NN) point forecasts of bus and freeway travel time data sets. The obtained results indicate that the delta technique outperforms the Bayesian technique in terms of narrowness of PIs with satisfactory coverage probability. In contrast, PIs constructed using the Bayesian technique are more robust against the NN structure and exhibit excellent coverage probability.

Probe vehicles with Global Positioning Systems (GPS) can provide accurate positions that enable spatial-average speed estimation. However, some probe vehicles cannot provide accurate positions but can provide location-specific information on when and where they are located at the segment or cell level. These topological position (TP) data with segment- or cell-level accuracy cannot provide the distance component that is necessary for traffic speed estimation. However, considering the wide availability of TP data in the existing telecommunications network, there is still hope and benefits to make use of the data for traffic state estimation. In this paper, an algorithm is proposed using low-resolution positioning data. The proposed method is capable of fusing low-resolution positioning data with other data sources, leading to more accurate and reliable speed estimation of relatively low bias. In addition, this method shows strong robustness and error tolerance and can reveal the magnitude of the estimation error, which is helpful for travel time prediction and traffic control.

Providing travel time information to travelers on available route alternatives in traffic networks is widely believed to yield positive effects on individual drive behavior and (route/departure time) choice behavior, as well as on collective traffic operations in terms of, for example, overall time savings and-if nothing else-on the reliability of travel times. As such, there is an increasing need for fast and reliable online travel time prediction models. Previous research showed that data-driven approaches such as the state-space neural network (SSNN) are reliable and accurate travel time predictors for freeway routes, which can be used to provide predictive travel time information on, for example, variable message sign panels. In an operational context, the adaptivity of such models is a crucial property. Since travel times are available (and, hence, can be measured) forrealizedtrips only, adapting the parameters (weights) of a data-driven travel time prediction model such as the SSNN is particularly challenging. This paper proposes a new extended Kalman filter (EKF) based online-learning approach, i.e., the online-censored EKF method, whichcanbe applied online and offers improvements over a delayed approach in which learning takes place only as realized travel times are available.