Time series forecasts of different temporal granularity are widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales prediction in days and weeks for making different inventory plans. However, these tasks are usually solved separately without ensuring coherence, which is crucial for aligning downstream decisions. Previous works mainly focus on ensuring coherence with some straightforward methods, e.g., aggregation from the forecasts of fine granularity to the coarse ones, and allocation from the coarse granularity to the fine ones. These methods merely take the temporal hierarchical structure to maintain coherence without improving the forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel granularity message-passing mechanism (GMP) that leverages temporal hierarchy information to improve forecasting performance and also utilizes an adaptive reconciliation (AR) strategy to maintain coherence without performance loss. Furthermore, we introduce an optimization module to achieve task-based targets while adhering to more real-world constraints. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework (GMP-AR) achieves superior performances on temporal hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our framework has been successfully applied to a real-world task of payment traffic management in Alipay by integrating with the task-based optimization module.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts. The code and data are available at \url{https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess}.

Invariance learning methods aim to learn invariant features in the hope that they generalize under distributional shift. Although many tasks are naturally characterized by continuous domains, current invariance learning techniques generally assume categorically indexed domains. For example, auto-scaling in cloud computing often needs a CPU utilization prediction model that generalizes across different times (e.g., time of a day and date of a year), where `time' is a continuous domain index. In this paper, we start by theoretically showing that existing invariance learning methods can fail for continuous domain problems. Specifically, the naive solution of splitting continuous domains into discrete ones ignores the underlying relationship among domains, and therefore potentially leads to suboptimal performance. To address this challenge, we then propose Continuous Invariance Learning (CIL), which extracts invariant features across continuously indexed domains. CIL is a novel adversarial procedure which measures and controls the conditional independence between the labels and continuous domain indices given the extracted features. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that CIL learns features that satisfy the invariant constraint with infinite samples. Empirical results on both synthetic and real-world datasets (including data collected from production systems) show that CIL consistently outperforms strong baselines among all the tasks.

The recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) are positioned to transition many areas of software. In this paper, we present DB-GPT, a revolutionary and product-ready Python library that integrates LLMs into traditional data interaction tasks to enhance user experience and accessibility. DB-GPT is designed to understand data interaction tasks described by natural language and provide context-aware responses powered by LLMs, making it an indispensable tool for users ranging from novice to expert. Its system design supports deployment across local, distributed, and cloud environments. Beyond handling basic data interaction tasks like Text-to-SQL with LLMs, it can handle complex tasks like generative data analysis through a Multi-Agents framework and the Agentic Workflow Expression Language (AWEL). The Service-oriented Multi-model Management Framework (SMMF) ensures data privacy and security, enabling users to employ DB-GPT with private LLMs. Additionally, DB-GPT offers a series of product-ready features designed to enable users to integrate DB-GPT within their product environments easily. The code of DB-GPT is available at Github.

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS) forecasting includes two sub-tasks, i.e., forecasting and reconciliation. In the previous works, hierarchical information is only integrated in the reconciliation step to maintain coherency, but not in forecasting step for accuracy improvement. In this paper, we propose two novel tree-based feature integration mechanisms, i.e., top-down convolution and bottom-up attention to leverage the information of the hierarchical structure to improve the forecasting performance. Moreover, unlike most previous reconciliation methods which either rely on strong assumptions or focus on coherent constraints only, we utilize deep neural optimization networks, which not only achieve coherency without any assumptions, but also allow more flexible and realistic constraints to achieve task-based targets, e.g., lower under-estimation penalty and meaningful decision-making loss to facilitate the subsequent downstream tasks. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our tree-based feature integration mechanism achieves superior performances on hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to the state-of-the-art methods, and our neural optimization networks can be applied to real-world tasks effectively without any additional effort under coherence and task-based constraints.

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework---thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models---could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

Sequences and time-series often arise in robot tasks, e.g., in activity recognition and imitation learning. In recent years, deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as an effective data-driven methodology for processing sequences given sufficient training data and compute resources. However, when data is limited, simpler models such as logic/rule-based methods work surprisingly well, especially when relevant prior knowledge is applied in their construction. However, unlike DNNs, these "structured" models can be difficult to extend, and do not work well with raw unstructured data. In this work, we seek to learn flexible DNNs, yet leverage prior temporal knowledge when available. Our approach is to embed symbolic knowledge expressed as linear temporal logic (LTL) and use these embeddings to guide the training of deep models. Specifically, we construct semantic-based embeddings of automata generated from LTL formula via a Graph Neural Network. Experiments show that these learnt embeddings can lead to improvements on downstream robot tasks such as sequential action recognition and imitation learning.