Multi-objective optimization aims to find a set of solutions that achieve the best trade-off among multiple conflicting objective functions. While various multi-objective optimization algorithms have been proposed so far, most of them aim to find finite solutions as an approximation of the Pareto set, which may not adequately capture the entire structure of the Pareto set, especially when the number of variables is large. To overcome this limitation, we propose a method to obtain a parametric hypersurface representing the entire Pareto set instead of a finite set of points. Since the Pareto set of an $M$-objective optimization problem typically forms an $(M-1)$-dimensional simplex, we use a B{é}zier simplex as a model to express the Pareto set. We then develop a stochastic gradient descent-based algorithm that updates the B{é}zier simplex model toward the Pareto set, introducing a preconditioning matrix to enhance convergence. Our convergence analysis demonstrated that the proposed algorithm outperforms naive stochastic gradient descent in terms of convergence rate. Furthermore, we validate the effectiveness of our method through various multi-objective optimization problem instances, including real-world problems.

Algorithmic recourse aims to provide a recourse action for altering an unfavorable prediction given by a model into a favorable one (e.g., loan approval). In practice, it is also desirable to ensure that an action makes the real-world outcome better (e.g., loan repayment). We call this requirement improvement. Unfortunately, existing methods cannot ensure improvement unless we know the true oracle. To address this issue, we propose a framework for suggesting improvement-oriented actions from a long-term perspective. Specifically, we introduce a new online learning task of assigning actions to a given sequence of instances. We assume that we can observe delayed feedback on whether the past suggested action achieved improvement. Using the feedback, we estimate an action that can achieve improvement for each instance. To solve this task, we propose two approaches based on contextual linear bandit and contextual Bayesian optimization. Experimental results demonstrated that our approaches could assign improvement-oriented actions to more instances than the existing methods.

This paper proposes a new algorithm for learning gradient boosted decision trees while ensuring the existence of recourse actions. Algorithmic recourse aims to provide a recourse action for altering the undesired prediction result given by a model. While existing studies often focus on extracting valid and executable actions from a given learned model, such reasonable actions do not always exist for models optimized solely for predictive accuracy. To address this issue, recent studies proposed a framework for learning a model while guaranteeing the existence of reasonable actions with high probability. However, these methods can not be applied to gradient boosted decision trees, which are renowned as one of the most popular models for tabular datasets. We propose an efficient gradient boosting algorithm that takes recourse guarantee into account, while maintaining the same time complexity as the standard ones. We also propose a post-processing method for refining a learned model under the constraint of a recourse guarantee and provide a PAC-style analysis of the refined model. Experimental results demonstrated that our method successfully provided reasonable actions to more instances than the baselines without significantly degrading accuracy and computational efficiency.

Demand forecasting is an essential task in retail and manufacturing industries and has been the subject of numerous studies. Conventional popular time-series forecasting methods, such as the ARIMA model, require us to develop a forecasting model for each product. However, when products are frequently replaced and have short sales periods, we do not have enough data to build models individually. This study focuses on zero-shot time-series forecasting methods for demand forecasting with limited data. Zero-shot time-series forecasting is a framework for time-series prediction that does not require fine-tuning with specific time-series data to be predicted. To address the data shortage in practical situations, we propose a zero-shot demand forecasting model that considers exogenous variables. Our experiments with real data demonstrate that our proposed method achieved higher prediction accuracy than existing time-series forecasting methods, especially for products with short sales periods.

**Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE)** aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using offline logged data and is frequently utilized to identify the top-$k$ promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff and *efficiency* in subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called **SharpeRatio@k**, which measures the risk-return tradeoff and efficiency of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets ($k$). We first demonstrate, in two example scenarios, that our proposed metric can clearly distinguish between conservative and high-stakes OPE estimators and reliably identify the most *efficient* estimator capable of forming superior portfolios of candidate policies that maximize return with minimal risk during online deployment, while existing evaluation metrics produce only degenerate results. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also implemented the proposed metric in an open-source software. Using SharpeRatio@k and the software, we conduct a benchmark experiment of various OPE estimators regarding their risk-return tradeoff, presenting several future directions for OPE research.

This paper proposes a new algorithm for learning accurate tree-based models while ensuring the existence of recourse actions. Algorithmic Recourse (AR) aims to provide a recourse action for altering the undesired prediction result given by a model. Typical AR methods provide a reasonable action by solving an optimization task of minimizing the required effort among executable actions. In practice, however, such actions do not always exist for models optimized only for predictive performance. To alleviate this issue, we formulate the task of learning an accurate classification tree under the constraint of ensuring the existence of reasonable actions for as many instances as possible. Then, we propose an efficient top-down greedy algorithm by leveraging the adversarial training techniques. We also show that our proposed algorithm can be applied to the random forest, which is known as a popular framework for learning tree ensembles. Experimental results demonstrated that our method successfully provided reasonable actions to more instances than the baselines without significantly degrading accuracy and computational efficiency.

Counterfactual Explanation (CE) is a post-hoc explanation method that provides a perturbation for altering the prediction result of a classifier. An individual can interpret the perturbation as an "action" to obtain the desired decision results. Existing CE methods focus on providing an action, which is optimized for a given single instance. However, these CE methods do not address the case where we have to assign actions to multiple instances simultaneously. In such a case, we need a framework of CE that assigns actions to multiple instances in a transparent and consistent way. In this study, we propose Counterfactual Explanation Tree (CET) that assigns effective actions with decision trees. Due to the properties of decision trees, our CET has two advantages: (1) Transparency: the reasons for assigning actions are summarized in an interpretable structure, and (2) Consistency: these reasons do not conflict with each other. We learn a CET in two steps: (i) compute one effective action for multiple instances and (ii) partition the instances to balance the effectiveness and interpretability. Numerical experiments and user studies demonstrated the efficacy of our CET in comparison with existing methods.

This paper proposes a two-phase framework with a Bézier simplex-based interpolation method (TPB) for computationally expensive multi-objective optimization. The first phase in TPB aims to approximate a few Pareto optimal solutions by optimizing a sequence of single-objective scalar problems. The first phase in TPB can fully exploit a state-of-the-art single-objective derivative-free optimizer. The second phase in TPB utilizes a Bézier simplex model to interpolate the solutions obtained in the first phase. The second phase in TPB fully exploits the fact that a Bézier simplex model can approximate the Pareto optimal solution set by exploiting its simplex structure when a given problem is simplicial. We investigate the performance of TPB on the 55 bi-objective BBOB problems. The results show that TPB performs significantly better than HMO-CMA-ES and some state-of-the-art meta-model-based optimizers.

Post-hoc explanation methods for machine learning models have been widely used to support decision-making. One of the popular methods is Counterfactual Explanation (CE), also known as Actionable Recourse, which provides a user with a perturbation vector of features that alters the prediction result. Given a perturbation vector, a user can interpret it as an "action" for obtaining one's desired decision result. In practice, however, showing only a perturbation vector is often insufficient for users to execute the action. The reason is that if there is an asymmetric interaction among features, such as causality, the total cost of the action is expected to depend on the order of changing features. Therefore, practical CE methods are required to provide an appropriate order of changing features in addition to a perturbation vector. For this purpose, we propose a new framework called Ordered Counterfactual Explanation (OrdCE). We introduce a new objective function that evaluates a pair of an action and an order based on feature interaction. To extract an optimal pair, we propose a mixed-integer linear optimization approach with our objective function. Numerical experiments on real datasets demonstrated the effectiveness of our OrdCE in comparison with unordered CE methods.

The B'ezier simplex fitting is a novel data modeling technique which utilizes geometric structures of data to approximate the Pareto set of multi-objective optimization problems. There are two fitting methods based on different sampling strategies. The inductive skeleton fitting employs a stratified subsampling from skeletons of a simplex, whereas the all-at-once fitting uses a non-stratified sampling which treats a simplex as a single object. In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic risks of those B'ezier simplex fitting methods and derive the optimal subsample ratio for the inductive skeleton fitting. It is shown that the inductive skeleton fitting with the optimal ratio has a smaller risk when the degree of a B'ezier simplex is less than three. Those results are verified numerically under small to moderate sample sizes. In addition, we provide two complementary applications of our theory: a generalized location problem and a multi-objective hyper-parameter tuning of the group lasso. The former can be represented by a B'ezier simplex of degree two where the inductive skeleton fitting outperforms. The latter can be represented by a B'ezier simplex of degree three where the all-at-once fitting gets an advantage.

Counterfactual Explanation (CE) is one of the post-hoc explanation methods that provides a perturbation vector so as to alter the prediction result obtained from a classifier. Users can directly interpret the perturbation as an "action" for obtaining their desired decision results. However, an action extracted by existing methods often becomes unrealistic for users because they do not adequately care about the characteristics corresponding to the empirical data distribution such as feature-correlations and outlier risk. To suggest an executable action for users, we propose a new framework of CE for extracting an action by evaluating its reality on the empirical data distribution. The key idea of our proposed method is to define a new cost function based on the Mahalanobis' distance and the local outlier factor. Then, we propose a mixed-integer linear optimization approach to extracting an optimal action by minimizing our cost function. By experiments on real datasets, we confirm the effectiveness of our method in comparison with existing methods for CE.

Multi-objective optimization problems require simultaneously optimizing two or more objective functions. Many studies have reported that the solution set of an M-objective optimization problem often forms an (M − 1)-dimensional topological simplex (a curved line for M = 2, a curved triangle for M = 3, a curved tetrahedron for M = 4, etc.). Since the dimensionality of the solution set increases as the number of objectives grows, an exponentially large sample size is needed to cover the solution set. To reduce the required sample size, this paper proposes a Bézier simplex model and its fitting algorithm. These techniques can exploit the simplex structure of the solution set and decompose a high-dimensional surface fitting task into a sequence of low-dimensional ones. An approximation theorem of Bézier simplices is proven. Numerical experiments with synthetic and real-world optimization problems demonstrate that the proposed method achieves an accurate approximation of high-dimensional solution sets with small samples. In practice, such an approximation will be conducted in the postoptimization process and enable a better trade-off analysis.

Real-world recognition or classification tasks in computer vision are not apparent in controlled environments and often get involved in open set. Previous research work on real-world recognition problem is knowledge- and labor-intensive to pursue good performance for there are numbers of task domains. Auto Machine Learning (AutoML) approaches supply an easier way to apply advanced machine learning technologies, reduce the demand for experienced human experts and improve classification performance on close set. This paper proposes an automatic neural network search method for designing effective convolution neural network (CNN) models for open set recognition (OSR). Feature distribution information is explicitly incorporated into the main objective. So during the search process, the sampled models will enlarge interclass differences and reduce intra-class variations. We design a flexible search space based on classic CNN models to diversify neural architectures and also add some search principles to limit the size of the search space. Experimental results on CIFAR-10 and Dunhuang historical Chinese datasets show that our approach improves performances on both close and open set. Comparing with the other two OSR algorithms, our method also achieves the best performance.