In practical scenarios, time series forecasting necessitates not only accuracy but also efficiency. Consequently, the exploration of model architectures remains a perennially trending topic in research. To address these challenges, we propose a novel backbone architecture named Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN) from the perspective of information fusion. Specifically, we introduce the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module based on evidence theory to capture the uncertainty of multivariate time series data from both channel and time dimensions. Additionally, we develop a novel multi-source information fusion method to effectively integrate the two distinct dimensions from BPA output, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining significantly lower complexity and reduced training time. Also, our experiments show that TEFN exhibits high robustness, with minimal error fluctuations during hyperparameter selection. Furthermore, due to the fact that BPA is derived from fuzzy theory, TEFN offers a high degree of interpretability. Therefore, the proposed TEFN balances accuracy, efficiency, stability, and interpretability, making it a desirable solution for time series forecasting.

In the commercial sphere, such as operations and maintenance, advertising, and marketing recommendations, intelligent decision-making utilizing data mining and neural network technologies is crucial, especially in resource allocation to optimize ROI. This study delves into the Cost-aware Binary Treatment Assignment Problem (C-BTAP) across different industries, with a focus on the state-of-the-art Direct ROI Prediction (DRP) method. However, the DRP model confronts issues like covariate shift and insufficient training data, hindering its real-world effectiveness. Addressing these challenges is essential for ensuring dependable and robust predictions in varied operational contexts. This paper presents a robust Direct ROI Prediction (rDRP) method, designed to address challenges in real-world deployment of neural network-based uplift models, particularly under conditions of covariate shift and insufficient training data. The rDRP method, enhancing the standard DRP model, does not alter the model's structure or require retraining. It utilizes conformal prediction and Monte Carlo dropout for interval estimation, adapting to model uncertainty and data distribution shifts. A heuristic calibration method, inspired by a Kaggle competition, combines point and interval estimates. The effectiveness of these approaches is validated through offline tests and online A/B tests in various settings, demonstrating significant improvements in target rewards compared to the state-of-the-art method.

Fuzzy time series forecasting (FTSF) is a typical forecasting method with wide application. Traditional FTSF is regarded as an expert system, which leads to the loss of the ability to recognize undefined features. The mentioned is the main reason for poor forecasting with FTSF. To solve the problem, the proposed model differential fuzzy convolutional neural network (DFCNN) utilizes a convolution neural network to reimplement FTSF with learnable ability. DFCNN is capable of recognizing potential information and improving forecasting accuracy. Thanks to the learnable ability of the neural network, the length of fuzzy rules established in FTSF is expended to an arbitrary length that the expert is not able to handle by the expert system. At the same time, FTSF usually cannot achieve satisfactory performance of nonstationary time series due to the trend of nonstationary time series. The trend of nonstationary time series causes the fuzzy set established by FTSF to be invalid and causes the forecasting to fail. DFCNN utilizes the difference algorithm to weaken the nonstationary time series so that DFCNN can forecast the nonstationary time series with a low error that FTSF cannot forecast in satisfactory performance. After the mass of experiments, DFCNN has an excellent prediction effect, which is ahead of the existing FTSF and common time series forecasting algorithms. Finally, DFCNN provides further ideas for improving FTSF and holds continued research value.

With the rapid development of sensor technologies, multisensor signals are now readily available for health condition monitoring and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. To fully utilize these signals for a better health condition assessment and RUL prediction, health indices are often constructed through various data fusion techniques. Nevertheless, most of the existing methods fuse signals linearly, which may not be sufficient to characterize the health status for RUL prediction. To address this issue and improve the predictability, this article proposes a novel nonlinear data fusion approach, namely, a shape-constrained neural data fusion network for health index construction. Especially, a neural network-based structure is employed, and a novel loss function is formulated by simultaneously considering the monotonicity and curvature of the constructed health index and its variability at the failure time. A tailored adaptive moment estimation algorithm (Adam) is proposed for model parameter estimation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated and compared through a case study using the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) data set.