Recommender systems that can learn from cross-session data to dynamically predict the next item a user will choose are crucial for online platforms. However, existing approaches often use out-of-the-box sequence models which are limited by speed and memory consumption, are often infeasible for production environments, and usually do not incorporate cross-session information, which is crucial for effective recommendations. Here we propose Hierarchical Temporal Convolutional Networks (HierTCN), a hierarchical deep learning architecture that makes dynamic recommendations based on users' sequential multi-session interactions with items. HierTCN is designed for web-scale systems with billions of items and hundreds of millions of users. It consists of two levels of models: The high-level model uses Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) to aggregate users' evolving long-term interests across different sessions, while the low-level model is implemented with Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), utilizing both the long-term interests and the short-term interactions within sessions to predict the next interaction. We conduct extensive experiments on a public XING dataset and a large-scale Pinterest dataset that contains 6 million users with 1.6 billion interactions. We show that HierTCN is 2.5x faster than RNN-based models and uses 90% less data memory compared to TCN-based models. We further develop an effective data caching scheme and a queue-based mini-batch generator, enabling our model to be trained within 24 hours on a single GPU. Our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art dynamic recommendation methods, with up to 18% improvement in recall and 10% in mean reciprocal rank.

Recently, there is a surge of interest in using point processes to model continuous-time user activities. This framework has resulted in novel models and improved performance in diverse applications. However, most previous works focus on the ”open loop” setting where learned models are used for predictive tasks. Typically, we are interested in the ”closed loop” setting where a policy needs to be learned to incorporate user feedbacks and guide user activities to desirable states. Although point processes have good predictive performance, it is not clear how to use them for the challenging closed loop activity guiding task. In this paper, we propose a framework to reformulate point processes into stochastic differential equations, which allows us to extend methods from stochastic optimal control to address the activity guiding problem. We also design an efficient algorithm, and show that our method guides user activities to desired states more effectively than state-of-arts.

User behaviors in social networks are microscopic with fine grained temporal information. Predicting a macroscopic quantity based on users’ collective behaviors is an important problem. However, existing works are mainly problem-specific models for the microscopic behaviors and typically design approximation or heuristic algorithms to compute the macroscopic quantity. In this paper, we propose a unifying framework with a jump stochastic differential equation model that systematically links the microscopic event data and macroscopic inference, and the theory to approximate its probability distribution. We showed that our method can better predict the user behaviors in real-world applications.

The availability of large scale event data with time stamps has given rise to dynamically evolving knowledge graphs that contain temporal information for each edge. Reasoning over time in such dynamic knowledge graphs is not yet well understood. To this end, we present Know-Evolve, a novel deep evolutionary knowledge network that learns non-linearly evolving entity representations over time. The occurrence of a fact (edge) is modeled as a multivariate point process whose intensity function is modulated by the score for that fact computed based on the learned entity embeddings. We demonstrate significantly improved performance over various relational learning approaches on two large scale real-world datasets. Further, our method effectively predicts occurrence or recurrence time of a fact which is novel compared to prior reasoning approaches in multi-relational setting.

Temporal point processes have been widely applied to model event sequence data generated by online users. In this paper, we consider the problem of how to design the optimal control policy for point processes, such that the stochastic system driven by the point process is steered to a target state. In particular, we exploit the key insight to view the stochastic optimal control problem from the perspective of optimal measure and variational inference. We further propose a convex optimization framework and an efficient algorithm to update the policy adaptively to the current system state. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that our algorithm can steer the user activities much more accurately and efficiently than other stochastic control methods.

Point processes are powerful tools to model user activities and have a plethora of applications in social sciences. Predicting user activities based on point processes is a central problem. However, existing works are mostly problem specific, use heuristics, or simplify the stochastic nature of point processes. In this paper, we propose a framework that provides an unbiased estimator of the probability mass function of point processes. In particular, we design a key reformulation of the prediction problem, and further derive a differential-difference equation to compute a conditional probability mass function. Our framework is applicable to general point processes and prediction tasks, and achieves superb predictive and efficiency performance in diverse real-world applications compared to state-of-arts.

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics. We propose a temporal point process model, Coevolve, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks such as Twitter. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.

Hawkes processes are powerful tools for modeling the mutual-excitation phenomena commonly observed in event data from a variety of domains, such as social networks, quantitative finance and healthcare records. The intensity function of a Hawkes process is typically assumed to be linear in the sum of triggering kernels, rendering it inadequate to capture nonlinear effects present in real-world data. To address this shortcoming, we propose an Isotonic-Hawkes process whose intensity function is modulated by an additional nonlinear link function. We also developed a novel iterative algorithm which learns both the nonlinear link function and other parameters provably. We showed that Isotonic-Hawkes processes can fit a variety of nonlinear patterns which cannot be captured by conventional Hawkes processes, and achieve superior empirical performance in real world applications.

Matching users to the right items at the right time is a fundamental task in recommendation systems. As users interact with different items over time, users' and items' feature may evolve and co-evolve over time. Traditional models based on static latent features or discretizing time into epochs can become ineffective for capturing the fine-grained temporal dynamics in the user-item interactions. We propose a coevolutionary latent feature process model that accurately captures the coevolving nature of users' and items' feature. To learn parameters, we design an efficient convex optimization algorithm with a novel low rank space sharing constraints. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements in user behavior prediction compared to state-of-the-arts.

Computational phenotyping is the process of converting heterogeneous electronic health records (EHRs) into meaningful clinical concepts. Unsupervised phenotyping methods have the potential to leverage a vast amount of labeled EHR data for phenotype discovery. However, existing unsupervised phenotyping methods do not incorporate current medical knowledge and cannot directly handle missing, or noisy data. We propose Rubik, a constrained non-negative tensor factorization and completion method for phenotyping. Rubik incorporates 1) guidance constraints to align with existing medical knowledge, and 2) pairwise constraints for obtaining distinct, non-overlapping phenotypes. Rubik also has built-in tensor completion that can significantly alleviate the impact of noisy and missing data. We utilize the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) framework to tensor factorization and completion, which can be easily scaled through parallel computing. We evaluate Rubik on two EHR datasets, one of which contains 647,118 records for 7,744 patients from an outpatient clinic, the other of which is a public dataset containing 1,018,614 CMS claims records for 472,645 patients. Our results show that Rubik can discover more meaningful and distinct phenotypes than the baselines. In particular, by using knowledge guidance constraints, Rubik can also discover sub-phenotypes for several major diseases. Rubik also runs around seven times faster than current state-of-the-art tensor methods. Finally, Rubik is scalable to large datasets containing millions of EHR records.

By making personalized suggestions, a recommender system is playing a crucial role in improving the engagement of users in modern web-services. However, most recommendation algorithms do not explicitly take into account the temporal behavior and the recurrent activities of users. Two central but less explored questions are how to recommend the most desirable item \emph{at the right moment}, and how to predict \emph{the next returning time} of a user to a service. To address these questions, we propose a novel framework which connects self-exciting point processes and low-rank models to capture the recurrent temporal patterns in a large collection of user-item consumption pairs. We show that the parameters of the model can be estimated via a convex optimization, and furthermore, we develop an efficient algorithm that maintains $O(1 / \epsilon)$ convergence rate, scales up to problems with millions of user-item pairs and thousands of millions of temporal events. Compared to other state-of-the-arts in both synthetic and real datasets, our model achieves superb predictive performance in the two time-sensitive recommendation questions. Finally, we point out that our formulation can incorporate other extra context information of users, such as profile, textual and spatial features.

Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly intertwined stochastic processes, information diffusion and network evolution, have been predominantly studied separately, ignoring their co-evolutionary dynamics.We propose a temporal point process model, COEVOLVE, for such joint dynamics, allowing the intensity of one process to be modulated by that of the other. This model allows us to efficiently simulate interleaved diffusion and network events, and generate traces obeying common diffusion and network patterns observed in real-world networks. Furthermore, we also develop a convex optimization framework to learn the parameters of the model from historical diffusion and network evolution traces. We experimented with both synthetic data and data gathered from Twitter, and show that our model provides a good fit to the data as well as more accurate predictions than alternatives.