This paper addresses differential inference in time-varying parametric probabilistic models, like graphical models with changing structures. Instead of estimating a high-dimensional model at each time and estimating changes later, we directly learn the differential parameter, i.e., the time derivative of the parameter. The main idea is treating the time score function of an exponential family model as a linear model of the differential parameter for direct estimation. We use time score matching to estimate parameter derivatives. We prove the consistency of a regularized score matching objective and demonstrate the finite-sample normality of a debiased estimator in high-dimensional settings. Our methodology effectively infers differential structures in high-dimensional graphical models, verified on simulated and real-world datasets. The code reproducing our experiments can be found at: \url{https://github.com/Leyangw/tsm}.

This paper introduces a novel iterative method for missing data imputation that sequentially reduces the mutual information between data and the corresponding missingness mask. Inspired by GAN-based approaches that train generators to decrease the predictability of missingness patterns, our method explicitly targets this reduction in mutual information. Specifically, our algorithm iteratively minimizes the KL divergence between the joint distribution of the imputed data and missingness mask, and the product of their marginals from the previous iteration. We show that the optimal imputation under this framework can be achieved by solving an ODE whose velocity field minimizes a rectified flow training objective. We further illustrate that some existing imputation techniques can be interpreted as approximate special cases of our mutual-information-reducing framework. Comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the efficacy of our proposed approach, demonstrating its superior imputation performance. Our implementation is available at \url{https://github.com/yujhml/MIRI-Imputation}.

Optimising probabilistic models is a well-studied field in statistics. However, its connection with the training of generative models remains largely under-explored. In this paper, we show that the evolution of time-varying generative models can be projected onto an exponential family manifold, naturally creating a link between the parameters of a generative model and those of a probabilistic model. We then train the generative model by moving its projection on the manifold according to the natural gradient descent scheme. This approach also allows us to efficiently approximate the natural gradient of the KL divergence without relying on MCMC for intractable models. Furthermore, we propose particle versions of the algorithm, which feature closed-form update rules for any parametric model within the exponential family. Through toy and real-world experiments, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. The code of the proposed algorithms can be found at \url{https://github.com/anewgithubname/iNGD}.

Estimating truncated density models is difficult, as these models have intractable normalising constants and hard to satisfy boundary conditions. Score matching can be adapted to solve the truncated density estimation problem, but requires a continuous weighting function which takes zero at the boundary and is positive elsewhere. Evaluation of such a weighting function (and its gradient) often requires a closed-form expression of the truncation boundary and finding a solution to a complicated optimisation problem. In this paper, we propose approximate Stein classes, which in turn leads to a relaxed Stein identity for truncated density estimation. We develop a novel discrepancy measure, truncated kernelised Stein discrepancy (TKSD), which does not require fixing a weighting function in advance, and can be evaluated using only samples on the boundary. We estimate a truncated density model by minimising the Lagrangian dual of TKSD. Finally, experiments show the accuracy of our method to be an improvement over previous works even without the explicit functional form of the boundary.

Truncated densities are probability density functions defined on truncated domains. They share the same parametric form with their non-truncated counterparts up to a normalizing constant. Since the computation of their normalizing constants is usually infeasible, Maximum Likelihood Estimation cannot be easily applied to estimate truncated density models. Score Matching (SM) is a powerful tool for fitting parameters using only unnormalized models. However, it cannot be directly applied here as boundary conditions that derive a tractable SM objective are not satisfied by truncated densities. This paper studies parameter estimation for truncated probability densities using SM. The estimator minimizes a weighted Fisher divergence. The weight function is simply the shortest distance from a data point to the domain's boundary. We show this choice of weight function naturally arises from minimizing the Stein discrepancy and upper bounding the finite-sample estimation error. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method via numerical experiments and a study on the Chicago crime data set. We also show that the proposed density estimation can correct the outlier-trimming bias caused by aggressive outlier detection methods.

We propose a novel framework that unifies and extends existing methods of transfer learning (TL) for regression. To bridge a pretrained source model to the model on a target task, we introduce a density-ratio reweighting function, which is estimated through the Bayesian framework with a specific prior distribution. By changing two intrinsic hyperparameters and the choice of the density-ratio model, the proposed method can integrate three popular methods of TL: TL based on cross-domain similarity regularization, a probabilistic TL using the density-ratio estimation, and fine-tuning of pretrained neural networks. Moreover, the proposed method can benefit from its simple implementation without any additional cost; the regression model can be fully trained using off-the-shelf libraries for supervised learning in which the original output variable is simply transformed to a new output variable. We demonstrate its simplicity, generality, and applicability using various real data applications.

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{\'e}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for an unbiased estimator. However, obtaining such MLE solution requires calculating the likelihood function which may not be tractable due to the normalization term of the density model. In this paper, we derive a Discriminative Likelihood Estimator (DLE) from the Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization criterion implemented via density ratio estimation and a Stein operator. We study the problem of model inference using DLE. We prove its consistency and show that the asymptotic variance of its solution can attain the equality of the efficiency bound under mild regularity conditions. We also propose a dual formulation of DLE which can be easily optimized. Numerical studies validate our asymptotic theorems and we give an example where DLE successfully estimates an intractable model constructed using a pre-trained deep neural network.

Nearest-neighbor estimators for the Kullback-Leiber (KL) divergence that are asymptotically unbiased have recently been proposed and demonstrated in a number of applications. However, with a small number of samples, nonparametric methods typically suffer from large estimation bias due to the nonlocality of information derived from nearest-neighbor statistics. In this letter, we show that this estimation bias can be mitigated by modifying the metric function, and we propose a novel method for learning a locally optimal Mahalanobis distance function from parametric generative models of the underlying density distributions. Using both simulations and experiments on a variety of data sets, we demonstrate that this interplay between approximate generative models and nonparametric techniques can significantly improve the accuracy of nearest-neighbor-based estimation of the KL divergence.

Density ratio estimation is a vital tool in both machine learning and statistical community. However, due to the unbounded nature of density ratio, the estimation proceudre can be vulnerable to corrupted data points, which often pushes the estimated ratio toward infinity. In this paper, we present a robust estimator which automatically identifies and trims outliers. The proposed estimator has a convex formulation, and the global optimum can be obtained via subgradient descent. We analyze the parameter estimation error of this estimator under high-dimensional settings. Experiments are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the estimator.

We learn the structure of a Markov Network between two groups of random variables from joint observations. Since modelling and learning the full MN structure may be hard, learning the links between two groups directly may be a preferable option. We introduce a novel concept called the \emphpartitioned ratio whose factorization directly associates with the Markovian properties of random variables across two groups. A simple one-shot convex optimization procedure is proposed for learning the \emphsparse factorizations of the partitioned ratio and it is theoretically guaranteed to recover the correct inter-group structure under mild conditions. The performance of the proposed method is experimentally compared with the state of the art MN structure learning methods using ROC curves. Real applications on analyzing bipartisanship in US congress and pairwise DNA/time-series alignments are also reported.

Transfer learning assumes classifiers of similar tasks share certain parameter structures. Unfortunately, modern classifiers use sophisticated feature representations with huge parameter spaces which lead to costly transfer. Under the impression that changes from one classifier to another should be “simple”, an efficient transfer learning criterion that only learns the “differences” is proposed in this paper. We train a posterior ratio which turns out to minimize the upper-bound of the target learning risk. The model of posterior ratio does not have to share the same parameter space with the source classifier at all so it can be easily modelled and efficiently trained. The resulting classifier therefore is obtained by simply multiplying the existing probabilistic-classifier with the learned posterior ratio.

We study the problem of learning sparse structure changes between two Markov networks P and Q. Rather than fitting two Markov networks separately to two sets of data and figuring out their differences, a recent work proposed to learn changes directly via estimating the ratio between two Markov network models. Such a direct approach was demonstrated to perform excellently in experiments, although its theoretical properties remained unexplored. In this paper, we give sufficient conditions for successful change detection with respect to the sample size np, nq, the dimension of data m, and the number of changed edges d.

Asymptotically unbiased nearest-neighbor estimators for K-L divergence have recently been proposed and demonstrated in a number of applications. With small sample sizes, however, these nonparametric methods typically suffer from high estimation bias due to the non-local statistics of empirical nearest-neighbor information. In this paper, we show that this non-local bias can be mitigated by changing the distance metric, and we propose a method for learning an optimal Mahalanobis-type metric based on global information provided by approximate parametric models of the underlying densities. In both simulations and experiments, we demonstrate that this interplay between parametric models and nonparametric estimation methods significantly improves the accuracy of the nearest-neighbor K-L divergence estimator.

We propose a new method for detecting changes in Markov network structure between two sets of samples. Instead of naively fitting two Markov network models separately to the two data sets and figuring out their difference, we directly learn the network structure change by estimating the ratio of Markov network models. This density-ratio formulation naturally allows us to introduce sparsity in the network structure change, which highly contributes to enhancing interpretability. Furthermore, computation of the normalization term, a critical bottleneck of the naive approach, can be remarkably mitigated. We also give the dual formulation of the optimization problem, which further reduces the computation cost for large-scale Markov networks. Through experiments, we demonstrate the usefulness of our method.

We address the problem of estimating the difference between two probability densities. A naive approach is a two-step procedure of first estimating two densities separately and then computing their difference. However, this procedure does not necessarily work well because the first step is performed without regard to the second step, and thus a small estimation error incurred in the first stage can cause a big error in the second stage. In this letter, we propose a single-shot procedure for directly estimating the density difference without separately estimating two densities. We derive a nonparametric finite-sample error bound for the proposed single-shot density-difference estimator and show that it achieves the optimal convergence rate. We then show how the proposed density-difference estimator can be used in L²-distance approximation. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method in robust distribution comparison such as class-prior estimation and change-point detection.

We address the problem of estimating the difference between two probability densities. A naive approach is a two-step procedure of first estimating two densities separately and then computing their difference. However, such a two-step procedure does not necessarily work well because the first step is performed without regard to the second step and thus a small estimation error incurred in the first stage can cause a big error in the second stage. In this paper, we propose a single-shot procedure for directly estimating the density difference without separately estimating two densities. We derive a non-parametric finite-sample error bound for the proposed single-shot density-difference estimator and show that it achieves the optimal convergence rate. We then show how the proposed density-difference estimator can be utilized in L2-distance approximation. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method in robust distribution comparison such as class-prior estimation and change-point detection.