Workload forecasting is pivotal in cloud service applications, such as auto-scaling and scheduling, with profound implications for operational efficiency. Although Transformer-based forecasting models have demonstrated remarkable success in general tasks, their computational efficiency often falls short of the stringent requirements in large-scale cloud environments. Given that most workload series exhibit complicated periodic patterns, addressing these challenges in the frequency domain offers substantial advantages. To this end, we propose Fremer, an efficient and effective deep forecasting model. Fremer fulfills three critical requirements: it demonstrates superior efficiency, outperforming most Transformer-based forecasting models; it achieves exceptional accuracy, surpassing all state-of-the-art (SOTA) models in workload forecasting; and it exhibits robust performance for multi-period series. Furthermore, we collect and open-source four high-quality, open-source workload datasets derived from ByteDance's cloud services, encompassing workload data from thousands of computing instances. Extensive experiments on both our proprietary datasets and public benchmarks demonstrate that Fremer consistently outperforms baseline models, achieving average improvements of 5.5% in MSE, 4.7% in MAE, and 8.6% in SMAPE over SOTA models, while simultaneously reducing parameter scale and computational costs. Additionally, in a proactive auto-scaling test based on Kubernetes, Fremer improves average latency by 18.78% and reduces resource consumption by 2.35%, underscoring its practical efficacy in real-world applications.

In large-scale systems, due to system complexity and demand volatility, diverse and dynamic workloads make accurate predictions difficult. In this work, we address an online interval prediction problem (OnPred-Int) and adopt ensemble learning to solve it. We depict that the ensemble learning for OnPred-Int is a dynamic deterministic Markov Decision Process (Dd-MDP) and convert it into a stateful online learning task. Then we propose IPOC, a lightweight and flexible model able to produce effective confidence intervals, adapting the dynamics of real-time workload streams. At each time, IPOC selects a target model and executes chasing for it by a designed chasing oracle, during which process IPOC produces accurate confidence intervals. The effectiveness of IPOCis theoretically validated through sublinear regret analysis and satisfaction of confidence interval requirements. Besides, we conduct extensive experiments on 4 real-world datasets comparing with 19 baselines. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to apply the frontier theory of online learning to time series prediction tasks.