Time series semantic segmentation is the task of extracting time intervals from the time series data that share a similar meaning within the application domain in an unsupervised manner. State-of-the-art algorithms typically treat this problem as change point detection, resulting in discrete state transitions. However, in real-world applications, states often transition gradually. This leads to a novel, more challenging variation of the traditional time series segmentation task, for which we present PaTSS, a novel, domain-agnostic algorithm to uncover those gradual state transitions. PaTSS learns a distribution over the semantic segments based on an embedding space derived from mined sequential patterns. An extensive experimental evaluation on 107 benchmark time series shows that PaTSS is capable of detecting gradual state transitions, a task current methods are unable to perform.

Sleep stage scoring is an essential component of diagnosing sleep disorders. Unfortunately, it is a time-intensive task that requires clinical experts to annotate an entire night's recording for each patient. Therefore, machine learned models offer the potential to alleviate this burden by automating this task. While learned models achieve acceptable accuracy on curated data, these models still produce highly inaccurate scorings for certain patients when deployed in medical centers. This is because particular subsets of the population may not be adequately represented in the data used to train the model. For example, data are not easily accessible (e.g., a given age group like children) or are hard or impossible to collect (e.g., patients with a rare disease or previously unknown pathology). This creates trust issues as incorrect scorings can have severe consequences such as undetected diseases. To address this, we propose augmenting an existing model with a reject option which enables it to abstain from making predictions if the model is at an elevated risk of making a mistake. We show that traditional rejection frameworks can systematically be too cautious in certain circumstances and abstain even when the model can make good predictions. We propose a solution by considering both the data distribution and the model predictions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on a real-world sleep scoring use case. Moreover, we found that our approach leads to improved performance on several publicly available benchmarks.

Imagine being able to ask questions to a black box model such as "Which adversarial examples exist?", "Does a specific attribute have a disproportionate effect on the model's prediction?" or "What kind of predictions could possibly be made for a partially described example?" This last question is particularly important if your partial description does not correspond to any observed example in your data, as it provides insight into how the model will extrapolate to unseen data. These capabilities would be extremely helpful as they would allow a user to better understand the model's behavior, particularly as it relates to issues such as robustness, fairness, and bias. In this paper, we propose such an approach for an ensemble of trees. Since, in general, this task is intractable we present a strategy that (1) can prune part of the input space given the question asked to simplify the problem; and (2) follows a divide and conquer approach that is incremental and can always return some answers and indicates which parts of the input domains are still uncertain. The usefulness of our approach is shown on a diverse set of use cases.

Methods that learn the structure of Probabilistic Sentential Decision Diagrams (PSDD) from data have achieved state-of-the-art performance in tractable learning tasks. These methods learn PSDDs incrementally by optimizing the likelihood of the induced probability distribution given available data and are thus robust against missing values, a relevant trait to address the challenges of embedded applications, such as failing sensors and resource constraints. However PSDDs are outperformed by discriminatively trained models in classification tasks. In this work, we introduce D-LearnPSDD , a learner that improves the classification performance of the LearnPSDD algorithm by introducing a discriminative bias that encodes the conditional relation between the class and feature variables.

Given its large applicational potential, time series anomaly detection has become a crucial data mining task. Its goal is to identify periods of a time series where there is a deviation from the expected behavior. Existing approaches focus on analyzing whether the currently observed behavior differs from previously seen, normal behavior. In contrast, this paper tackles the the task where the absence of a previously observed behavior is indicative of an anomaly. In other words, a pattern that is expected to recur in the time series is absent. In real-world use cases, absent patterns can be linked to serious problems. For instance, if a scheduled, regular maintenance operation of a machine does not take place, this can be harmful to the machine at a later time. In this paper, we introduce the task of detecting when a specific pattern is absent in a real-valued time series. We propose a novel technique called FZapPa that can address this task. Empirically, FZapPa outperforms existing anomaly techniques on a benchmark of real-world datasets.

Nowadays, all aspects of a production process are continuously monitored and visualized in a dashboard. Equipment is monitored using a variety of sensors, natural resource usage is tracked, and interventions are recorded. In this context, a common task is to identify anomalous behavior from the time series data generated by sensors. As manually analyzing such data is laborious and expensive, automated approaches have the potential to be much more efficient as well as cost effective. While anomaly detection could be posed as a supervised learning problem, typically this is not possible as few or no labeled examples of anomalous behavior are available and it is oftentimes infeasible or undesirable to collect them. Therefore, unsupervised approaches are commonly employed which typically identify anomalies as deviations from normal (i.e., common or frequent) behavior. However, in many real-world settings several types of normal behavior exist that occur less frequently than some anomalous behaviors. In this paper, we propose a novel constrained-clustering-based approach for anomaly detection that works in both an unsupervised and semi-supervised setting. Starting from an unlabeled data set, the approach is able to gradually incorporate expert-provided feedback to improve its performance. We evaluated our approach on real-world water monitoring time series data from supermarkets in collaboration with Colruyt Group, one of Belgiums largest retail companies. Empirically, we found that our approach outperforms the current detection system as well as several other baselines. Our system is currently deployed and used by the company to analyze water usage for 20 stores on a daily basis.

Running is extremely popular and around 10.6 million people run regularly in the United States alone. Unfortunately, estimates indicated that between 29% to 79% of runners sustain an overuse injury every year. One contributing factor to such injuries is excessive fatigue, which can result in alterations in how someone runs that increase the risk for an overuse injury. Thus being able to detect during a running session when excessive fatigue sets in, and hence when these alterations are prone to arise, could be of great practical importance. In this paper, we explore whether we can use machine learning to predict the rating of perceived exertion (RPE), a validated subjective measure of fatigue, from inertial sensor data of individuals running outdoors. We describe how both the subjective target label and the realistic outdoor running environment introduce several interesting data science challenges. We collected a longitudinal dataset of runners, and demonstrate that machine learning can be used to learn accurate models for predicting RPE.

Over the last fifteen years, several types of attacks against domain names and the companies relying on them have been observed. The well-known cybersquatting of domain names gave way to typosquatting, the abuse of a user's mistakes when typing a URL in her browser's address bar. Recently, a new attack against domain names surfaced, namely bitsquatting. In bitsquatting, an attacker leverages random bit-errors occurring in the memory of commodity computers and smartphones, to redirect Internet traffic to attacker-controlled domains.