Data-driven discovery of image-derived phenotypes (IDPs) from large-scale multimodal brain imaging data has enormous potential for neuroscientific and clinical research by linking IDPs to subjects' demographic, behavioural, clinical and cognitive measures (i.e., non-imaging derived phenotypes or nIDPs). However, current approaches are primarily based on unsupervised approaches, without the use of information in nIDPs. In this paper, we proposed a semi-supervised, multimodal, and multi-task fusion approach, termed SuperBigFLICA, for IDP discovery, which simultaneously integrates information from multiple imaging modalities as well as multiple nIDPs. SuperBigFLICA is computationally efficient and largely avoids the need for parameter tuning. Using the UK Biobank brain imaging dataset with around 40,000 subjects and 47 modalities, along with more than 17,000 nIDPs, we showed that SuperBigFLICA enhances the prediction power of nIDPs, benchmarked against IDPs derived by conventional expert-knowledge and unsupervised-learning approaches (with average nIDP prediction accuracy improvements of up to 46%). It also enables the learning of generic imaging features that can predict new nIDPs. Further empirical analysis of the SuperBigFLICA algorithm demonstrates its robustness in different prediction tasks and the ability to derive biologically meaningful IDPs in predicting health outcomes and cognitive nIDPs, such as fluid intelligence and hypertension.

Neuroimaging allows for the non-invasive study of the brain in rich detail. Data-driven discovery of patterns of population variability in the brain has the potential to be extremely valuable for early disease diagnosis and understanding the brain. The resulting patterns can be used as imaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs), and may complement existing expert-curated IDPs. However, population datasets, comprising many different structural and functional imaging modalities from thousands of subjects, provide a computational challenge not previously addressed. Here, for the first time, a multimodal independent component analysis approach is presented that is scalable for data fusion of voxel-level neuroimaging data in the full UK Biobank (UKB) dataset, that will soon reach 100,000 imaged subjects. This new computational approach can estimate modes of population variability that enhance the ability to predict thousands of phenotypic and behavioural variables using data from UKB and the Human Connectome Project. A high-dimensional decomposition achieved improved predictive power compared with widely-used analysis strategies, single-modality decompositions and existing IDPs. In UKB data (14,503 subjects with 47 different data modalities), many interpretable associations with non-imaging phenotypes were identified, including multimodal spatial maps related to fluid intelligence, handedness and disease, in some cases where IDP-based approaches failed.

Deep learning has huge potential for accurate disease prediction with neuroimaging data, but the prediction performance is often limited by training-dataset size and computing memory requirements. To address this, we propose a deep convolutional neural network model, Simple Fully Convolutional Network (SFCN), for accurate prediction of brain age using T1-weighted structural MRI data. Compared with other popular deep network architectures, SFCN has fewer parameters, so is more compatible with small dataset size and 3D volume data. The network architecture was combined with several techniques for boosting performance, including data augmentation, pre-training, model regularization, model ensemble and prediction bias correction. We compared our overall SFCN approach with several widely-used machine learning models. It achieved state-of-the-art performance in UK Biobank data (N = 14,503), with mean absolute error (MAE) = 2.14y in brain age prediction and 99.5% in sex classification. SFCN also won (both parts of) the 2019 Predictive Analysis Challenge for brain age prediction, involving 79 competing teams (N = 2,638, MAE = 2.90y). We describe here the details of our approach, and its optimisation and validation. Our approach can easily be generalised to other tasks using different image modalities, and is released on GitHub.

Over the past decade, biomarker discovery has become a key goal in psychiatry to aid in the more reliable diagnosis and prognosis of heterogeneous psychiatric conditions and the development of tailored therapies. Nevertheless, the prevailing statistical approach is still the mean group comparison between "cases" and "controls," which tends to ignore within-group variability. In this educational article, we used empirical data simulations to investigate how effect size, sample size, and the shape of distributions impact the interpretation of mean group differences for biomarker discovery. We then applied these statistical criteria to evaluate biomarker discovery in one area of psychiatric research-autism research. Across the most influential areas of autism research, effect size estimates ranged from small (d = 0.21, anatomical structure) to medium (d = 0.36 electrophysiology, d = 0.5, eye-tracking) to large (d = 1.1 theory of mind). We show that in normal distributions, this translates to approximately 45% to 63% of cases performing within 1 standard deviation (SD) of the typical range, i.e., they do not have a deficit/atypicality in a statistical sense. For a measure to have diagnostic utility as defined by 80% sensitivity and 80% specificity, Cohen's d of 1.66 is required, with still 40% of cases falling within 1 SD. However, in both normal and nonnormal distributions, 1 (skewness) or 2 (platykurtic, bimodal) biologically plausible subgroups may exist despite small or even nonsignificant mean group differences. This conclusion drastically contrasts the way mean group differences are frequently reported. Over 95% of studies omitted the "on average" when summarising their findings in their abstracts ("autistic people have deficits in X"), which can be misleading as it implies that the group-level difference applies to all individuals in that group. We outline practical approaches and steps for researchers to explore mean group comparisons for the discovery of stratification biomarkers.

Mixture models are often used in the statistical segmentation of medical images. For example, they can be used for the segmentation of structural images into different matter types or of functional statistical parametric maps (SPMs) into activations and nonactivations. Nonspatial mixture models segment using models of just the histogram of intensity values. Spatial mixture models have also been developed which augment this histogram information with spatial regularization using Markov random fields. However, these techniques have control parameters, such as the strength of spatial regularization, which need to be tuned heuristically to particular datasets. We present a novel spatial mixture model within a fully Bayesian framework with the ability to perform fully adaptive spatial regularization using Markov random fields. This means that the amount of spatial regularization does not have to be tuned heuristically but is adaptively determined from the data. We examine the behavior of this model when applied to artificial data with different spatial characteristics, and to functional magnetic resonance imaging SPMs.

We present an integrated approach to probabilistic independent component analysis (ICA) for functional MRI (FMRI) data that allows for nonsquare mixing in the presence of Gaussian noise. In order to avoid overfitting, we employ objective estimation of the amount of Gaussian noise through Bayesian analysis of the true dimensionality of the data, i.e., the number of activation and non-Gaussian noise sources. This enables us to carry out probabilistic modeling and achieves an asymptotically unique decomposition of the data. It reduces problems of interpretation, as each final independent component is now much more likely to be due to only one physical or physiological process. We also describe other improvements to standard ICA, such as temporal prewhitening and variance normalization of timeseries, the latter being particularly useful in the context of dimensionality reduction when weak activation is present. We discuss the use of prior information about the spatiotemporal nature of the source processes, and an alternative-hypothesis testing approach for inference, using Gaussian mixture models. The performance of our approach is illustrated and evaluated on real and artificial FMRI data, and compared to the spatio-temporal accuracy of results obtained from classical ICA and GLM analyses.