Spatial trajectory prediction is a fundamental problem for diverse location-based applications. However, existing methods fall short in learning and generalization, and cannot sufficiently capture users’ spatiotemporal preferences, especially for cold-start users. Moreover, these methods do not explicitly consider the diversity of moving patterns among users and trajectories, i.e., the learning difficulty of different user and trajectory samples, thus hindering the improvement of prediction accuracy. To solve these problems, we propose a novel Curriculum and Contrastive Learning Enhanced Meta-Learner (CCML) that transfers knowledge from users with rich data to cold-start users. Specifically, a Contrastive-based Trajectory Predictor (CTP) is designed as the base model, which utilizes contrastive learning technique on both user-level and trajectory-level, aiming to facilitate a more profound understanding and differentiation of the varied travel behaviors and preferences exhibited by individuals. Meanwhile, CCML also incorporates the curriculum learning and the hard sample mining strategies. It simultaneously considers the learning difficulty of both user and trajectory samples, and presents the learning tasks by an easy-to-hard curriculum. By learning more challenging combinations of user and trajectory samples in each meta-learning iteration, the meta-learner can converge to a better status. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our models.

Trajectory prediction is a fundamental problem for a wide spectrum of location-based applications. Existing methods can achieve inspiring results in predicting personal frequent routes conditioned on massive historical data. However, trajectory estimation may involve cold-start routes or users due to the data sparsity problem, which severely limits the performance of spatial trajectory prediction. Although meta-learning models can alleviate the cold-start problem, they simply utilize the same initialization for all tasks and thus cannot fit each user well due to users' varying travel preferences. To this end, we propose an adaptive meta-optimized model called MetaPTP for personalized spatial trajectory prediction. Specifically, it adopts a soft-clustering based method to guide the network initialization in a finer granularity, so that shared knowledge can be better transferred across users with similar travel preferences. Besides, towards model fine-tuning, an effective trajectory sampling method is introduced to generate meaningful support set, which simultaneously considers user preference and spatial trace similarities to provide task-related information for model adaptation. In addition, we design a weight generator to adaptively assign reasonable weights to trajectories in support set to avoid sub-optimal results which will occur when fine-tuning the initial network with the same weight for trajectories with different user preferences and spatial distributions. Finally, extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model.