The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2019, designated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) as a serious antimicrobial resistance threat. The risk of acquiring MRSA and suffering life-threatening consequences due to it remains especially high for hospitalized patients due to a unique combination of factors, including: co-morbid conditions, immuno suppression, antibiotic use, and risk of contact with contaminated hospital workers and equipment. In this paper, we present a novel generative probabilistic model, GenHAI, for modeling sequences of MRSA test results outcomes for patients during a single hospitalization. This model can be used to answer many important questions from the perspectives of hospital administrators for mitigating the risk of MRSA infections. Our model is based on the probabilistic programming paradigm, and can be used to approximately answer a variety of predictive, causal, and counterfactual questions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model by comparing it against discriminative and generative machine learning models using two real-world datasets.

Common knowledge (CK) is a phenomenon where each individual within a group knows the same information and everyone knows that everyone knows the information, infinitely recursively. CK spreads information as a contagion through social networks in ways different from other models like susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. In a model of CK on Facebook, the biclique serves as the characterizing graph substructure for generating CK, as all nodes within a biclique share CK through their walls. To understand the effects of network structure on CK-based contagion, it is necessary to control the numbers and sizes of bicliques in networks. Thus, learning how to generate these CK networks (CKNs) is important. Consequently, we develop an exponential random graph model (ERGM) that constructs networks while controlling for bicliques. Our method offers powerful prediction and inference, reduces computational costs significantly, and has proven its merit in contagion dynamics through numerical experiments.

Verification planning is a sequential decision-making problem that specifies a set of verification activities (VAs) and correction activities (CAs) at different phases of system development. While VAs are used to identify errors and defects, CAs also play important roles in system verification as they correct the identified errors and defects. However, current planning methods only consider VAs as decision choices. Because VAs and CAs have different activity spaces, planning a joint verification-correction strategy (JVCS) is challenging, especially for large-scale systems. Here, we introduce a UCB-based tree search approach to search for near-optimal JVCSs. First, verification planning is simplified as repeatable bandit problems and an upper confidence bound rule for repeatable bandits (UCBRBs) is presented with the optimal regret bound. Next, a tree search algorithm is proposed to search for feasible JVCSs. A tree-based ensemble learning model is also used to extend the tree search algorithm to handle local optimality issues. The proposed approach is evaluated on the notional case of a communication system.

Successful applications of InfoNCE (Information Noise-Contrastive Estimation) and its variants have popularized the use of contrastive variational mutual information (MI) estimators in machine learning . While featuring superior stability, these estimators crucially depend on costly large-batch training, and they sacrifice bound tightness for variance reduction. To overcome these limitations, we revisit the mathematics of popular variational MI bounds from the lens of unnormalized statistical modeling and convex optimization. Our investigation yields a new unified theoretical framework encompassing popular variational MI bounds, and leads to a novel, simple, and powerful contrastive MI estimator we name FLO. Theoretically, we show that the FLO estimator is tight, and it converges under stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, the proposed FLO estimator overcomes the limitations of its predecessors and learns more efficiently. The utility of FLO is verified using extensive benchmarks, and we further inspire the community with novel applications in meta-learning. Our presentation underscores the foundational importance of variational MI estimation in data-efficient learning.

Verification is a critical process in the development of engineered systems. Through verification, engineers gain confidence in the correct functionality of the system before it is deployed into operation. Traditionally, verification strategies are fixed at the beginning of the system’s development and verification activities (VAs) are executed as the development progresses. Such an approach appears to give inferior results as the selection of the VAs does not leverage information gained through the system’s development process. In contrast, a set-based design (SBD) approach to verification, where VAs are dynamically selected as the system’s development progresses, has been shown to provide superior results. However, its application under realistic engineering scenarios remains unproven due to the large size of the verification tradespace. In this work, we propose a parallel tempering approach (PTA) to efficiently explore the verification tradespace. First, we formulate an exploration of the verification tradespace as a tree search problem. Second, we design a parallel tempering (PT) algorithm by simulating several replicas of the verification process at different temperatures to obtain a near-optimal result. Third, We apply the PT algorithm to all possible verification states to dynamically identify near-optimal results. The effectiveness of the proposed PTA is evaluated on a partial model of a notional satellite optical instrument.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, voice user interfaces (VUIs) capable of speech-based interaction are poised to support children’s language development by serving as their language partners. This paper reports an analytic evaluation of the currently available voice-based apps targeting young children to examine whether and how they incorporate evidence-based dialogue strategies that effectively support children’s learning. We found that, despite the fact that the current apps support a variety of language activities, most fail to carry out open-ended dialogue and provide extended back-and-forth opportunities, thus limiting their ability to encourage children’s language output and increase children’s language exposure. We discuss four design implications for developing VUIs that initiate dialogue and provide feedback in ways that better facilitate children’s language learning.

In anagram games, players are provided with letters for forming as many words as possible over a specified time duration. Anagram games have been used in controlled experiments to study problems such as collective identity, effects of goal-setting, internal-external attributions, test anxiety, and others. The majority of work on anagram games involves individual players. Recently, work has expanded to group anagram games where players cooperate by sharing letters. In this work, we analyze experimental data from online social networked experiments of group anagram games. We develop mechanistic and data-driven models of human decision-making to predict detailed game player actions (e.g., what word to form next). With these results, we develop a composite agent-based modeling and simulation platform that incorporates the models from data analysis. We compare model predictions against experimental data, which enables us to provide explanations of human decision-making and behavior. Finally, we provide illustrative case studies using agent-based simulations to demonstrate the efficacy of models to provide insights that are beyond those from experiments alone.

Scan statistics is one of the most popular approaches for anomaly detection in spatial and network data. In practice, there are numerous sources of uncertainty in the observed data. However, most prior works have overlooked such uncertainty, which can affect the accuracy and inferences of such methods. In this paper, we develop the first systematic approach to incorporating uncertainty in scan statistics. We study two formulations for robust scan statistics, one based on the sample average approximation and the other using a max-min objective. We show that uncertainty significantly increases the computational complexity of these problems. Rigorous algorithms and efficient heuristics for both formulations are developed with justification of theoretical bounds. We evaluate our proposed methods on synthetic and real datasets, and we observe that our methods give significant improvement in the detection power as well as optimization objective, relative to a baseline.

Abduction is an inference approach that uses data and observations to identify plausible (and preferably, best) explanations for phenomena. Applications of abduction (e.g., robotics, genetics, image understanding) have largely been devoid of human behavior. Here, we devise and execute an iterative abductive analysis process that is driven by the social sciences: behaviors and interactions among groups of human subjects. One goal is to understand intra-group cooperation and its effect on fostering collective identity. We build an online game platform; perform and analyze controlled laboratory experiments; form hypotheses; build, exercise, and evaluate network-based agent-based models; and evaluate the hypotheses in multiple abductive iterations, improving our understanding as the process unfolds. While the experimental results are of interest, the paper's thrust is methodological, and indeed establishes the potential of iterative abductive looping for the (computational) social sciences.

Additive manufacturing (AM) enables flexible part geometry and functionality, and reduces product development life cycle by direct layer-wise fabrication from CAD files. In the last decade, great achievements are made on AM materials, machines, processes, etc. However, the quality of the AM parts is still questionable for industrial specifications. On the one hand, AM part quality variables can be either quantitative, such as dimensional accuracy, or qualitative, such as binary indicators for voids, missing features, or surface roughness. On the other hand, both offline process setting variables and functional in situ process variables can be measured and modeled with both quantitative and qualitative (QQ) quality response variables. In this paper, the QQ quality response variables are modeled by offline process setting variables and in situ process variables via functional QQ models. The modeling of these in situ process variables provides the basis for real-time monitoring and control for AM processes. Simulation studies and experimental data from a fused deposition modeling process are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A carbon nanotube (CNT) film, which is drawn from a CNT array, is a spatially distributed thin film with unique and appealing properties. Novel devices have been developed based on CNT films. The anisotropy of a CNT film, which is a spatially distributed quality index, is difficult to measure in practice due to metrology and cost constraints. As the anisotropy is highly correlated with the height of the CNT array and the height can be measured in a much easier and more cost-effective way, we propose a spatial model for predicting the anisotropy using the height. The model takes the spatially distributed two-dimensional (2-D) height as an input and provides a predicted anisotropy distribution in a 2-D space. If the anisotropy measures are obtained, the model can provide a more accurate prediction. The performance of the proposed model is verified by both a simulation study and real data samples. Note to Practitioners-Timely and accurate measurement of key product features is essential in scale-up nanomanufacturing processes. Even though a fast growth of metrology technology has been seen in recent years, some variables of nanoscale products are still hard to measure, either too costly or too time consuming, in highspeed large-scale production. However, physical mechanisms may suggest that a hard-to-measure variable may be correlated with another easy-to-measure variable. In such a case, a spatial calibration model could be constructed, based on which the prediction of the hard-to-measure variable is achievable given measures of the easyto-measure variable. Such a calibration model provides an effective alternative to physical metrology tools in large-scale nanomanufacturing processes in which metrology technology is not fully ready yet.

We propose a robust framework to jointly perform two key modeling tasks involving high dimensional data: (i) learning a sparse functional mapping from multiple predictors to multiple responses while taking advantage of the coupling among responses, and (ii) estimating the conditional dependency structure among responses while adjusting for their predictors. The traditional likelihood-based estimators lack resilience with respect to outliers and model misspecification. This issue is exacerbated when dealing with high dimensional noisy data. In this work, we propose instead to minimize a regularized distance criterion, which is motivated by the minimum distance functionals used in nonparametric methods for their excellent robustness properties. The proposed estimates can be obtained efficiently by leveraging a sequential quadratic programming algorithm. We provide theoretical justification such as estimation consistency for the proposed estimator. Additionally, we shed light on the robustness of our estimator through its linearization, which yields a combination of weighted lasso and graphical lasso with the sample weights providing an intuitive explanation of the robustness. We demonstrate the merits of our framework through simulation study and the analysis of real financial and genetics data.

This paper analyzes the performance of multiple- input multiple-output (MIMO) systems with transmit and receive antenna selection (T-RAS). The average bit error rate (BER), average symbol error rata (SER), outage probability and ergodic capacity are derived by utilizing the characteristic function (CF) of the joint output signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Our approach can be used over not only independent but also arbitrary correlated Rayleigh,Nakagami-m and Rician fading channels. Simulation results are provided to validate our numerical calculations. We also illustrate the effect of antenna array configuration and the operating environment (fading, angular spread, mean angle-of- arrival(AOA), mean angle-of-departure (AOD)) on the average BER performance.

The amount of fading (AF) is a simple measure for the performance of a diversity system. This paper provides approximations and bounds for AF as well as the methods to derive the exact AF calculations for transmit antenna selection (TAS) on Rayleigh fading channels. We also derive a simple approximate formula for the relationship between the AF and the coding gain in a TAS system. Simulation results are provided to verify the results.