We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling (e.g., SEIR) to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses interpretable encoders to incorporate covariates and improve performance. Explainability is valuable to ensure that the model's forecasts are credible to epidemiologists and to instill confidence in end-users such as policy makers and healthcare institutions. Our model can be applied at different geographic resolutions, and we demonstrate it for states and counties in the United States. We show that our model provides more accurate forecasts compared to the alternatives, and that it provides qualitatively meaningful explanatory insights.

When the transition probabilities and rewards of a Markov Decision Process (MDP) are known, an agent can obtain the optimal policy without any interaction with the environment. However, exact transition probabilities are difficult for experts to specify. One option left to an agent is a long and potentially costly exploration of the environment. In this paper, we propose another alternative: given initial (possibly inaccurate) specification of the MDP, the agent determines the sensitivity of the optimal policy to changes in transitions and rewards. It then focuses its exploration on the regions of space to which the optimal policy is most sensitive. We show that the proposed exploration strategy performs well on several control and planning problems.

When the transition probabilities and rewards of a Markov Decision Process are specified exactly, the problem can be solved without any interaction with the environment. When no such specification is available, the agent's only recourse is a long and potentially dangerous exploration. We present a framework which allows the expert to specify imprecise knowledge of transition probabilities in terms of stochastic dominance constraints. Our algorithm can be used to find optimal policies for qualitatively specified problems, or, when no such solution is available, to decrease the required amount of exploration. The algorithm's behavior is demonstrated on simulations of two classic problems: mountain car ascent and cart pole balancing.

We present a novel framework for integrating prior knowledge into discriminative classifiers. Our framework allows discriminative classifiers such as Support Vector Machines (SVMs) to utilize prior knowledge specified in the generative setting. The dual objective of fitting the data and respecting prior knowledge is formulated as a bilevel program, which is solved (approximately) via iterative application of second-order cone programming. To test our approach, we consider the problem of using WordNet (a semantic database of English language) to improve low-sample classification accuracy of newsgroup categorization. WordNet is viewed as an approximate, but readily available source of background knowledge, and our framework is capable of utilizing it in a flexible way.