Achieving effective unified pretraining on large time series corpora remains an open challenge in developing time series foundation models. Existing methods, such as Moirai, introduce multiple projection layers for time series of different frequencies to account for high data heterogeneity. We identify major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization. First, frequency is not a reliable indicator for grouping pretraining data. Second, time series can display varied distributions even within a short window. Frequency-level specialization overlooks the diversity at this granularity. To address these issues, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, excluding human-defined data groupings while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With this design, Moirai-MoE eliminates reliance on heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive evaluations on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over state-of-the-art foundation models. This study also conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models.

Road traffic forecasting is crucial in real-world intelligent transportation scenarios like traffic dispatching and path planning in city management and personal traveling. Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) stand out as the mainstream solution in this task. Nevertheless, the quadratic complexity of remarkable dynamic spatial modeling-based STGNNs has become the bottleneck over large-scale traffic data. From the spatial data management perspective, we present a novel Transformer framework called PatchSTG to efficiently and dynamically model spatial dependencies for large-scale traffic forecasting with interpretability and fidelity. Specifically, we design a novel irregular spatial patching to reduce the number of points involved in the dynamic calculation of Transformer. The irregular spatial patching first utilizes the leaf K-dimensional tree (KDTree) to recursively partition irregularly distributed traffic points into leaf nodes with a small capacity, and then merges leaf nodes belonging to the same subtree into occupancy-equaled and non-overlapped patches through padding and backtracking. Based on the patched data, depth and breadth attention are used interchangeably in the encoder to dynamically learn local and global spatial knowledge from points in a patch and points with the same index of patches. Experimental results on four real world large-scale traffic datasets show that our PatchSTG achieves train speed and memory utilization improvements up to 10x and 4x with the state-of-the-art performance.

Accurately modeling complex dynamic spatio-temporal systems requires capturing flow-mediated interdependencies and context-sensitive interaction dynamics. Existing methods, predominantly graph-based or attention-driven, rely on similarity-driven connectivity assumptions, neglecting asymmetric flow exchanges that govern system evolution. We propose Spatio-Temporal Flow, a physics-inspired paradigm that explicitly models dynamic node couplings through quantifiable flow transfers governed by conservation principles. Building on this, we design FlowNet, a novel architecture leveraging flow tokens as information carriers to simulate source-to-destination transfers via Flow Allocation Modules, ensuring state redistribution aligns with physical laws. FlowNet dynamically adjusts the interaction radius through an Adaptive Spatial Masking module, suppressing irrelevant noise while enabling context-aware propagation. A cascaded architecture enhances scalability and nonlinear representation capacity. Experiments demonstrate that FlowNet significantly outperforms existing SOTA approaches on seven metrics in the modeling of three real-world systems, validating its efficiency and physical interpretability. We establish a principled methodology for modeling complex systems through spatio-temporal flow interactions.

Spatio-temporal graph neural networks have proven efficacy in capturing complex dependencies for urban computing tasks such as forecasting and kriging. Yet, their performance is constrained by the reliance on extensive data for training on a specific task, thereby limiting their adaptability to new urban domains with varied task demands. Although transfer learning has been proposed to remedy this problem by leveraging knowledge across domains, the cross-task generalization still remains under-explored in spatio-temporal graph transfer learning due to the lack of a unified framework. To bridge the gap, we propose Spatio-Temporal Graph Prompting (STGP), a prompt-based framework capable of adapting to multi-diverse tasks in a data-scarce domain. Specifically, we first unify different tasks into a single template and introduce a task-agnostic network architecture that aligns with this template. This approach enables capturing dependencies shared across tasks. Furthermore, we employ learnable prompts to achieve domain and task transfer in a two-stage prompting pipeline, facilitating the prompts to effectively capture domain knowledge and task-specific properties. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that STGP outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in three tasks-forecasting, kriging, and extrapolation-achieving an improvement of up to 10.7%.

The utilization of Large Language Models (LLMs) in financial trading has primarily been concentrated within the stock market, aiding in economic and financial decisions.Yet, the unique opportunities presented by the cryptocurrency market, noted for its on-chain data's transparency and the critical influence of offchain signals like news, remain largely untapped by LLMs.This work aims to bridge the gap by developing an LLM-based trading agent, CryptoTrade, which uniquely combines the analysis of on-chain and off-chain data.This approach leverages the transparency and immutability of on-chain data, as well as the timeliness and influence of off-chain signals, providing a comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market.CryptoTrade incorporates a reflective mechanism specifically engineered to refine its daily trading decisions by analyzing the outcomes of prior trading decisions.This research makes two significant contributions.Firstly, it broadens the applicability of LLMs to the domain of cryptocurrency trading.Secondly, it establishes a benchmark for cryptocurrency trading strategies.Through extensive experiments, CryptoTrade has demonstrated superior performance in maximizing returns compared to time-series baselines, but not compared to traditional trading signals, across various cryptocurrencies and market conditions.Our code and data are available at https://github. com/Xtra-Computing/CryptoTrade.CryptoTrade makes day-to-day trading decisions.

Spatio-temporal graph learning is a fundamental problem in modern urban systems. Existing approaches tackle different tasks independently, tailoring their models to unique task characteristics. These methods, however, fall short of modeling intrinsic uncertainties in the spatio-temporal data. Meanwhile, their specialized designs misalign with the current research efforts toward unifying spatio-temporal graph learning solutions. In this paper, we propose to model these tasks in a unified probabilistic perspective, viewing them as predictions based on conditional information with shared dependencies. Based on this proposal, we introduce Unified Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Models (USTD) to address the tasks uniformly under the uncertainty-aware diffusion framework. USTD is holistically designed, comprising a shared spatio-temporal encoder and attention-based denoising decoders that are task-specific. The encoder, optimized by pre-training strategies, effectively captures conditional spatio-temporal patterns. The decoders, utilizing attention mechanisms, generate predictions by leveraging learned patterns. Opting for forecasting and kriging, the decoders are designed as Spatial Gated Attention (SGA) and Temporal Gated Attention (TGA) for each task, with different emphases on the spatial and temporal dimensions. Combining the advantages of deterministic encoders and probabilistic decoders, USTD achieves state-of-the-art performances compared to both deterministic and probabilistic baselines, while also providing valuable uncertainty estimates.

Reasoning is a fundamental ability towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). Fueled by the success of deep learning, the neural logic machines models (NLMs) have introduced novel neural-symbolic structures and demonstrate great performance and generalization on reasoning and decision-making tasks. However, the original training approaches of the NLMs are still far from perfect, the models would repeat similar mistakes during the training process which leads to sub-optimal performance. To mitigate this issue, we present a novel framework named Failure Reflection Guided Regularizer (FRGR). FRGR first dynamically identifies and summarizes the root cause if the model repeats similar mistakes during training. Then it penalizes the model if it makes similar mistakes in future training iterations. In this way, the model is expected to avoid repeating errors of similar root causes and converge faster to a better-performed optimum. Experimental results on multiple relational reasoning and decision-making tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of FRGR in improving performance, generalization, training efficiency, and data efficiency.

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential of language models (LMs) for time series analysis, dedicated parameters for various downstream forecasting tasks need training, which hinders the common knowledge sharing across domains. Moreover, data owners may hesitate to share the access to local data due to privacy concerns and copyright protection, which makes it impossible to simply construct a FM on cross-domain training instances. To address these issues, we propose Time-FFM, a Federated Foundation Model for Time series forecasting by leveraging pretrained LMs. Specifically, we begin by transforming time series into the modality of text tokens. To bootstrap LMs for time series reasoning, we propose a prompt adaption module to determine domain-customized prompts dynamically instead of artificially. Given the data heterogeneity across domains, we design a personalized federated training strategy by learning global encoders and local prediction heads. Our comprehensive experiments indicate that Time-FFM outperforms state-of-the-arts and promises effective few-shot and zero-shot forecaster. The code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/NeurIPS24-Time-FFM/tree/main.

Knowledge Graphs (KGs) enhance recommendations by providing external connectivity between items. However, there is limited research on distilling relevant knowledge in sequential recommendation, where item connections can change over time. To address this, we introduce the Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG), which incorporates such dynamic features of user behaviors into the original KG while emphasizing sequential relationships. The TKG captures both patterns of entity dynamics (nodes) and structural dynamics (edges). Considering real-world applications with large-scale and rapidly evolving user behavior patterns, we propose an efficient two-phase framework called TKG-SRec, which strengthens Sequential Recommendation with Temporal KGs. In the first phase, we learn dynamic entity embeddings using our novel Knowledge Evolution Network (KEN) that brings together pretrained static knowledge with evolving temporal knowledge. In the second stage, downstream sequential recommender models utilize these time-specific dynamic entity embeddings with compatible neural backbones like GRUs, Transformers, and MLPs. From our extensive experiments over four datasets, TKG-SRec outperforms the current state-of-the-art by a statistically significant 5% on average. Detailed analysis validates that such filtered temporal knowledge better adapts entity embedding for sequential recommendation. In summary, TKG-SRec provides an effective and efficient approach.

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in contemporary web technologies. In contrast to conventional methods that involve creating dedicated models for specific time series application domains, this research advocates for a unified model paradigm that transcends domain boundaries. However, learning an effective cross-domain model presents the following challenges. First, various domains exhibit disparities in data characteristics, e.g., the number of variables, posing hurdles for existing models that impose inflexible constraints on these factors. Second, the model may encounter difficulties in distinguishing data from various domains, leading to suboptimal performance in our assessments. Third, the diverse convergence rates of time series domains can also result in compromised empirical performance. To address these issues, we propose UniTime for effective cross-domain time series learning. Concretely, UniTime can flexibly adapt to data with varying characteristics. It also uses domain instructions and a Language-TS Transformer to offer identification information and align two modalities. In addition, UniTime employs masking to alleviate domain convergence speed imbalance issues. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of UniTime in advancing state-of-the-art forecasting performance and zero-shot transferability.

Road traffic forecasting plays a critical role in smart city initiatives and has experienced significant advancements thanks to the power of deep learning in capturing non-linear patterns of traffic data. However, the promising results achieved on current public datasets may not be applicable to practical scenarios due to limitations within these datasets. First, the limited sizes of them may not reflect the real-world scale of traffic networks. Second, the temporal coverage of these datasets is typically short, posing hurdles in studying long-term patterns and acquiring sufficient samples for training deep models. Third, these datasets often lack adequate metadata for sensors, which compromises the reliability and interpretability of the data. To mitigate these limitations, we introduce the LargeST benchmark dataset. It encompasses a total number of 8,600 sensors in California with a 5-year time coverage and includes comprehensive metadata. Using LargeST, we perform in-depth data analysis to extract data insights, benchmark well-known baselines in terms of their performance and efficiency, and identify challenges as well as opportunities for future research. We release the datasets and baseline implementations at: https://github.com/liuxu77/LargeST.

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate the temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability. Our source code is available at https://github.com/yutong-xia/CaST.

As data privacy increasingly becomes a critical societal concern, federated learning has been a hot research topic in enabling the collaborative training of machine learning models among different organizations under the privacy restrictions. As researchers try to support more machine learning models with different privacy-preserving approaches, there is a requirement in developing systems and infrastructures to ease the development of various federated learning algorithms. Similar to deep learning systems such as PyTorch and TensorFlow that boost the development of deep learning, federated learning systems (FLSs) are equivalently important, and face challenges from various aspects such as effectiveness, efficiency, and privacy. In this survey, we conduct a comprehensive review on federated learning systems. To understand the key design system components and guide future research, we introduce the definition of federated learning systems and analyze the system components. Moreover, we provide a thorough categorization for federated learning systems according to six different aspects, including data distribution, machine learning model, privacy mechanism, communication architecture, scale of federation and motivation of federation. The categorization can help the design of federated learning systems as shown in our case studies. By systematically summarizing the existing federated learning systems, we present the design factors, case studies, and future research opportunities.

Transformers have been an efficient alternative to recurrent neural networks in many sequential learning tasks. When adapting transformers to modeling trajectories, we encounter two major issues. First, being originally designed for language modeling, transformers assume regular intervals between input tokens, which contradicts the irregularity of trajectories. Second, transformers often suffer high computational costs, especially for long trajectories. In this paper, we address these challenges by presenting a novel transformer architecture entitled TrajFormer. Our model first generates continuous point embeddings by jointly considering the input features and the information of spatio-temporal intervals, and then adopts a squeeze function to speed up the representation learning. Moreover, we introduce an auxiliary loss to ease the training of transformers using the supervision signals provided by all output tokens. Extensive experiments verify that our TrajFormer achieves a preferable speed-accuracy balance compared to existing approaches.

Deep learning models are modern tools for spatio-temporal graph (STG) forecasting. Though successful, we argue that data scarcity is a key factor limiting their recent improvements. Meanwhile, contrastive learning has been an effective method for providing self-supervision signals and addressing data scarcity in various domains. In view of this, one may ask: can we leverage the additional signals from contrastive learning to alleviate data scarcity, so as to benefit STG forecasting? To answer this question, we present the first systematic exploration on incorporating contrastive learning into STG forecasting. Specifically, we first elaborate two potential schemes for integrating contrastive learning. We then propose two feasible and efficient designs of contrastive tasks that are performed on the node or graph level. The empirical study on STG benchmarks demonstrates that integrating graph-level contrast with the joint learning scheme achieves the best performance. In addition, we introduce four augmentations for STG data, which perturb the data in terms of graph structure, time domain, and frequency domain. Experimental results reveal that the model is not sensitive to the proposed augmentations' semantics. Lastly, we extend the classic contrastive loss via a rule-based strategy that filters out the most semantically similar negatives, yielding performance gains. We also provide explanations and insights based on the above experimental findings. Code is available at https://github.com/liuxu77/STGCL.

This article presents and characterizes an Open Application Repository for Federated Learning (OARF), a benchmark suite for federated machine learning systems. Previously available benchmarks for federated learning (FL) have focused mainly on synthetic datasets and use a limited number of applications. OARF mimics more realistic application scenarios with publicly available datasets as different data silos in image, text, and structured data. Our characterization shows that the benchmark suite is diverse in data size, distribution, feature distribution, and learning task complexity. The extensive evaluations with reference implementations show the future research opportunities for important aspects of FL systems. We have developed reference implementations, and evaluated the important aspects of FL, including model accuracy, communication cost, throughput, and convergence time. Through these evaluations, we discovered some interesting findings such as FL can effectively increase end-to-end throughput. The code of OARF is publicly available on GitHub. 1

OD bundling is a promising method to identify key origin-destination (OD) patterns, but the bundling can mislead the interpretation of actual trajectories traveled. We present OD Morphing, an interactive OD bundling technique that improves geographical faithfulness to actual trajectories while preserving visual simplicity for OD patterns. OD Morphing iteratively identifies critical waypoints from the actual trajectory network with a min-cut algorithm and transitions OD bundles to pass through the identified waypoints with a smooth morphing method. Furthermore, we extend OD Morphing to support bundling at interaction speeds to enable users to interactively transition between degrees of faithfulness to aid sensemaking. We introduce metrics for faithfulness and simplicity to evaluate their trade-off achieved by OD morphed bundling. We demonstrate OD Morphing on real-world city-scale taxi trajectory and USA domestic planned flight datasets.