Learning from non-independent and non-identically distributed data poses a persistent challenge in statistical learning. In this study, we introduce data-dependent Bernstein inequalities tailored for vector-valued processes in Hilbert space. Our inequalities apply to both stationary and non-stationary processes and exploit the potential rapid decay of correlations between temporally separated variables to improve estimation. We demonstrate the utility of these bounds by applying them to covariance operator estimation in the Hilbert-Schmidt norm and to operator learning in dynamical systems, achieving novel risk bounds. Finally, we perform numerical experiments to illustrate the practical implications of these bounds in both contexts.

Markov processes serve as universal models for many real-world random processes. This paper presents a data-driven approach to learning these models through the spectral decomposition of the infinitesimal generator (IG) of the Markov semigroup. Its unbounded nature complicates traditional methods such as vector-valued regression and Hilbert-Schmidt operator analysis. Existing techniques, including physics-informed kernel regression, are computationally expensive and limited in scope, with no recovery guarantees for transfer operator methods when the time-lag is small. We propose a novel method leveraging the IG's resolvent, characterized by the Laplace transform of transfer operators. This approach is robust to time-lag variations, ensuring accurate eigenvalue learning even for small time-lags. Our statistical analysis applies to a broader class of Markov processes than current methods while reducing computational complexity from quadratic to linear in the state dimension. Finally, we demonstrate our theoretical findings in several experiments.

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders, using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. A leading strategy employs \emph{spectral features} - that is, learned features spanning the top eigensubspaces of the operator linking treatments to instruments. We derive a generalization error bound for a two-stage least squares estimator based on spectral features, and gain insights into the method's performance and failure modes. We show that performance depends on two key factors, leading to a clear taxonomy of outcomes. In a \emph{good} scenario, the approach is optimal. This occurs with strong \emph{spectral alignment}, meaning the structural function is well-represented by the top eigenfunctions of the conditional operator, coupled with this operator's slow eigenvalue decay, indicating a strong instrument. Performance degrades in a \emph{bad} scenario: spectral alignment remains strong, but rapid eigenvalue decay (indicating a weaker instrument) demands significantly more samples for effective feature learning. Finally, in the \emph{ugly} scenario, weak spectral alignment causes the method to fail, regardless of the eigenvalues' characteristics. Our synthetic experiments empirically validate this taxonomy. We further introduce a practical procedure to estimate these spectral properties from data, allowing practitioners to diagnose which regime a given problem falls into. We apply this method to the dSprites dataset, demonstrating its utility.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

We study the problem of forecasting the evolution of a function of the state (observable) of a discrete ergodic dynamical system over multiple time steps. The elegant theory of Koopman and transfer operators can be used to evolve any such function forward in time. However, their estimators are usually unreliable in long-term forecasting. We show how classical techniques of eigenvalue deflation from operator theory and feature centering from statistics can be exploited to enhance standard estimators. We develop a novel technique to derive high probability bounds on powers of empirical estimators. Our approach, rooted in the stability theory of non-normal operators, allows us to establish uniform in time bounds for the forecasting error, which hold even on infinite time horizons. We further show that our approach can be seamlessly employed to forecast future state distributions from an initial one, with provably uniform error bounds. Numerical experiments illustrate the advantages of our approach in practice.

We investigate learning the eigenfunctions of evolution operators for time-reversal invariant stochastic processes, a prime example being the Langevin equation used in molecular dynamics. Many physical or chemical processes described by this equation involve transitions between metastable states separated by high potential barriers that can hardly be crossed during a simulation. To overcome this bottleneck, data are collected via biased simulations that explore the state space more rapidly. We propose a framework for learning from biased simulations rooted in the infinitesimal generator of the process {and the associated resolvent operator}. We contrast our approach to more common ones based on the transfer operator, showing that it can provably learn the spectral properties of the unbiased system from biased data. In experiments, we highlight the advantages of our method over transfer operator approaches and recent developments based on generator learning, demonstrating its effectiveness in estimating eigenfunctions and eigenvalues. Importantly, we show that even with datasets containing only a few relevant transitions due to sub-optimal biasing, our approach recovers relevant information about the transition mechanism.

We address data-driven learning of the infinitesimal generator of stochastic diffusion processes, essential for understanding numerical simulations of natural and physical systems. The unbounded nature of the generator poses significant challenges, rendering conventional analysis techniques for Hilbert-Schmidt operators ineffective. To overcome this, we introduce a novel framework based on the energy functional for these stochastic processes. Our approach integrates physical priors through an energy-based risk metric in both full and partial knowledge settings. We evaluate the statistical performance of a reduced-rank estimator in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) in the partial knowledge setting. Notably, our approach provides learning bounds independent of the state space dimension and ensures non-spurious spectral estimation. Additionally, we elucidate how the distortion between the intrinsic energy-induced metric of the stochastic diffusion and the RKHS metric used for generator estimation impacts the spectral learning bounds.

We introduce Neural Conditional Probability (NCP), an operator-theoretic approach to learning conditional distributions with a focus on statistical inference tasks. NCP can be used to build conditional confidence regions and extract key statistics such as conditional quantiles, mean, and covariance. It offers streamlined learning via a single unconditional training phase, allowing efficient inference without the need for retraining even when conditioning changes. By leveraging the approximation capabilities of neural networks, NCP efficiently handles a wide variety of complex probability distributions. We provide theoretical guarantees that ensure both optimization consistency and statistical accuracy. In experiments, we show that NCP with a 2-hidden-layer network matches or outperforms leading methods. This demonstrates that a a minimalistic architecture with a theoretically grounded loss can achieve competitive results, even in the face of more complex architectures.

Non-linear dynamical systems can be handily described by the associated Koopman operator, whose action evolves every observable of the system forward in time. Learning the Koopman operator and its spectral decomposition from data is enabled by a number of algorithms. In this work we present for the first time non-asymptotic learning bounds for the Koopman eigenvalues and eigenfunctions. We focus on time-reversal-invariant stochastic dynamical systems, including the important example of Langevin dynamics. We analyze two popular estimators: Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) and Reduced Rank Regression (RRR). Our results critically hinge on novel {minimax} estimation bounds for the operator norm error, that may be of independent interest. Our spectral learning bounds are driven by the simultaneous control of the operator norm error and a novel metric distortion functional of the estimated eigenfunctions. The bounds indicates that both EDMD and RRR have similar variance, but EDMD suffers from a larger bias which might be detrimental to its learning rate. Our results shed new light on the emergence of spurious eigenvalues, an issue which is well known empirically. Numerical experiments illustrate the implications of the bounds in practice.

The theory of Koopman operators allows to deploy non-parametric machine learning algorithms to predict and analyze complex dynamical systems. Estimators such as principal component regression (PCR) or reduced rank regression (RRR) in kernel spaces can be shown to provably learn Koopman operators from finite empirical observations of the system's time evolution. Scaling these approaches to very long trajectories is a challenge and requires introducing suitable approximations to make computations feasible. In this paper, we boost the efficiency of different kernel-based Koopman operator estimators using random projections (sketching). We derive, implement and test the new ``sketched'' estimators with extensive experiments on synthetic and large-scale molecular dynamics datasets. Further, we establish non asymptotic error bounds giving a sharp characterization of the trade-offs between statistical learning rates and computational efficiency. Our empirical and theoretical analysis shows that the proposed estimators provide a sound and efficient way to learn large scale dynamical systems. In particular our experiments indicate that the proposed estimators retain the same accuracy of PCR or RRR, while being much faster.

In this work we propose a batch multimarginal version of the Greenkhorn algorithm for the entropic-regularized optimal transport problem. This framework is general enough to cover, as particular cases, existing Sinkhorn and Greenkhorn algorithms for the bi-marginal setting, and greedy MultiSinkhorn for the general multimarginal case. We provide a comprehensive convergence analysis based on the properties of the iterative Bregman projections method with greedy control. Linear rate of convergence as well as explicit bounds on the iteration complexity are obtained. When specialized to the above mentioned algorithms, our results give new convergence rates or provide key improvements over the state-of-the-art rates. We present numerical experiments showing that the flexibility of the batch can be exploited to improve performance of Sinkhorn algorithm both in bi-marginal and multimarginal settings.

We study a class of dynamical systems modelled as stationary Markov chains that admit an invariant distribution via the corresponding transfer or Koopman operator. While data-driven algorithms to reconstruct such operators are well known, their relationship with statistical learning is largely unexplored. We formalize a framework to learn the Koopman operator from finite data trajectories of the dynamical system. We consider the restriction of this operator to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and introduce a notion of risk, from which different estimators naturally arise. We link the risk with the estimation of the spectral decomposition of the Koopman operator. These observations motivate a reduced-rank operator regression (RRR) estimator. We derive learning bounds for the proposed estimator, holding both in i.i.d and non i.i.d. settings, the latter in terms of mixing coefficients. Our results suggest RRR might be beneficial over other widely used estimators as confirmed in numerical experiments both for forecasting and mode decomposition.