Overtaking is a complex and hazardous driving maneuver for intelligent vehicles. When to initiate overtaking and how to complete overtaking are critical issues for an overtaking intelligent vehicle. We propose an overtaking control method based on the estimation of the conflict probability. This method uses the conflict probability as the safety indicator and completes overtaking by tracking a safe conflict probability. The conflict probability is estimated by the future relative position of intelligent vehicles, and the future relative position is estimated by using the dynamics models of the intelligent vehicles. The proposed method uses model predictive control to track a desired safe conflict probability and synthesizes decision making and control of the overtaking maneuver. The effectiveness of this method has been validated in different experimental configurations, and the effects of some parameters in this control method have also been investigated.