Social dilemmas are situations of inter-dependent decision making in which individual rationality can lead to outcomes with poor social qualities. The ubiquity of social dilemmas in social, biological, and computational systems has generated substantial research across these diverse disciplines into the study of mechanisms for avoiding deficient outcomes by promoting and maintaining mutual cooperation. Much of this research is focused on studying how individuals faced with a dilemma can learn to cooperate by adapting their behaviours according to their past experience. In particular, three types of learning approaches have been studied: evolutionary game-theoretic learning, reinforcement learning, and best-response learning. This article is a comprehensive integrated survey of these learning approaches in the context of dilemma games. We formally introduce dilemma games and their inherent challenges. We then outline the three learning approaches and, for each approach, provide a survey of the solutions proposed for dilemma resolution. Finally, we provide a comparative summary and discuss directions in which further research is needed.

Typical mobile edge computing infrastructures have to contend with unreliable computing devices at their end-points. The limited resource capacities of mobile edge devices gives rise to frequent contentions, node overloads or failures. This is exacerbated by the strict deadlines of modern applications. To avoid failures, fault-tolerant approaches utilize preemptive migration to transfer active tasks across nodes and prevent nodes running at capacity. However, prior work struggles to dynamically adapt in settings with highly volatile workloads or even accurately detect and diagnose anomalies for optimal remediation. To meet the strict service level objectives of contemporary workloads, there is a need for dynamic fault-tolerant methods that can quickly adapt to changes in edge environments while having parsimonious remediation in the form of preemptive migration to avoid stressing the system network. This work proposes PreGAN, featuring a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) based approach to predict contentions, pinpoint specific resource types with high chance of overload, and generate migration decisions to proactively avoid system downtime. PreGAN leverages coupled-simulations to train the GAN model at run-time and a few-shot fault classifier to update decisions of an underpinning scheduler. We also extend it to PreGAN+ that also periodically tunes the decision model using semi-supervised training and a Transformer based neural network for low tuning time, albeit with higher memory overheads. Experiments on a Raspberry-Pi based edge environment demonstrate that both models outperform state-of-the-art baselines in fault detection and diagnosis scores by up to 12.5% and 31.2% respectively. This also translates in improvements in Quality of Service against baseline approaches.

The emergence of latency-critical AI applications has been supported by the evolution of the edge computing paradigm. However, edge solutions are typically resource-constrained, posing reliability challenges due to heightened contention for compute capacities and faulty application behavior in the presence of overload conditions. Although a large amount of generated log data can be mined for fault prediction, labeling this data for training is a manual process and thus a limiting factor for automation. Due to this, many companies resort to unsupervised fault-tolerance models. Yet, failure models of this kind can incur a loss of accuracy when they need to adapt to non-stationary workloads and diverse host characteristics. Thus, we propose a novel modeling approach, DeepFT, to proactively avoid system overloads and their adverse effects by optimizing the task scheduling decisions. DeepFT uses a deep-surrogate model to accurately predict and diagnose faults in the system and co-simulation based self-supervised learning to dynamically adapt the model in volatile settings. Experimentation on an edge cluster shows that DeepFT can outperform state-of-the-art methods in fault-detection and QoS metrics. Specifically, DeepFT gives the highest F1 scores for fault-detection, reducing service deadline violations by up to 37% while also improving response time by up to 9%.

Abstract The success of crowdsourcing projects relies critically on motivating a crowd to contribute. One particularly effective method for incentivising participants to perform tasks is to run contests where participants compete against each other for rewards. However, there are numerous ways to implement such contests in specific projects, that vary in how performance is evaluated, how participants are rewarded, and the sizes of the prizes. Also, the best way to implement contests in a particular project is still an open challenge, as the effectiveness of each contest implementation (henceforth, incentive) is unknown in advance. Hence, in a crowdsourcing project, a practical approach to maximise the overall utility of the requester (which can be measured by the total number of completed tasks or the quality of the task submissions) is to choose a set of incentives suggested by previous studies from the literature or from the requester’s experience. Then, an effective mechanism can be applied to automatically select appropriate incentives from this set over different time intervals so as to maximise the cumulative utility within a given financial budget and a time limit. To this end, we present a novel approach to this incentive selection problem. Specifically, we formalise it as an online decision making problem, where each action corresponds to offering a specific incentive. After that, we detail and evaluate a novel algorithm, , to solve the incentive selection problem efficiently and adaptively. In theory, in the case that all the estimates in (except the estimates of the effectiveness of each incentive) are correct, we show that the algorithm achieves the regret bound of $\mathcal {O}(\sqrt {B/c})$ O ( B / c ) , where B denotes the financial budget and c is the average cost of the incentives. In experiments, the performance of is about 93% (up to 98%) of the optimal solution and about 9% (up to 40%) better than state-of-the-art algorithms in a broad range of settings, which vary in budget sizes, time limits, numbers of incentives, values of the standard deviation of the incentives’ utilities, and group sizes of the contests (i.e., the numbers of participants in a contest).

We consider an outsourcing problem where a software agent procures multiple services from providers with uncertain reliabilities to complete a computational task before a strict deadline. The service consumer’s goal is to design an outsourcing strategy (defining which services to procure and when) so as to maximize a specific objective function. This objective function can be different based on the consumer’s nature; a socially-focused consumer often aims to maximize social welfare, while a self-interested consumer often aims to maximize its own utility. However, in both cases, the objective function depends on the providers’ execution costs, which are privately held by the self-interested providers and hence may be misreported to influence the consumer’s decisions. For such settings, we develop a unified approach to design truthful procurement auctions that can be used by both socially-focused and, separately, self-interested consumers. This approach benefits from our proposed weighted threshold payment scheme which pays the provably minimum amount to make an auction with a monotone outsourcing strategy incentive compatible. This payment scheme can handle contingent outsourcing plans, where additional procurement happens gradually over time and only if the success probability of the already hired providers drops below a time-dependent threshold. Using a weighted threshold payment scheme, we design two procurement auctions that maximize, as well as two low-complexity heuristic-based auctions that approximately maximize, the consumer’s expected utility and expected social welfare, respectively. We demonstrate the effectiveness and strength of our proposed auctions through both game-theoretical and empirical analysis.

In recent years, the landscape of computing paradigms has witnessed a gradual yet remarkable shift from monolithic computing to distributed and decentralized paradigms such as Internet of Things (IoT), Edge, Fog, Cloud, and Serverless. The frontiers of these computing technologies have been boosted by shift from manually encoded algorithms to Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven autonomous systems for optimum and reliable management of distributed computing resources. Prior work focuses on improving existing systems using AI across a wide range of domains, such as efficient resource provisioning, application deployment, task placement, and service management. This survey reviews the evolution of data-driven AI-augmented technologies and their impact on computing systems. We demystify new techniques and draw key insights in Edge, Fog and Cloud resource management-related uses of AI methods and also look at how AI can innovate traditional applications for enhanced Quality of Service (QoS) in the presence of a continuum of resources. We present the latest trends and impact areas such as optimizing AI models that are deployed on or for computing systems. We layout a roadmap for future research directions in areas such as resource management for QoS optimization and service reliability. Finally, we discuss blue-sky ideas and envision this work as an anchor point for future research on AI-driven computing systems.

The rise of distributed cloud computing technologies has been pivotal for the large-scale adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) based applications for high fidelity and scalable service delivery. Systematic resource management is central in maintaining optimal Quality of Service (QoS) in cloud platforms and is divided into three fundamental types: resource provisioning, AI model deployment and workload placement. To exploit the synergy among these decision types, it becomes imperative to concurrently design (co-design) the provisioning, deployment and placement decisions for optimal QoS. As users and cloud service providers shift to non-stationary AI-based workloads, frequent decision making imposes severe time constraints on the resource management models. Existing AI-based solutions often optimize decision types independently and tend to ignore the dependencies across various system performance aspects such as energy consumption and CPU utilization, making them perform poorly in large-scale cloud systems. To address this, we propose a novel method, called SciNet, that leverages a co-simulated digital-twin of the infrastructure to capture inter-metric dependencies and accurately estimate QoS scores. To avoid expensive simulation overheads at test time, SciNet trains a neural network based imitation learner that aims to mimic an oracle, which takes optimal decisions based on co-simulated QoS estimates. Offline model training and online decision making based on the imitation learner, enables SciNet to take optimal decisions while being time-efficient. Experiments with real-life AI-based benchmark applications on a public cloud testbed show that SciNet gives up to 48% lower execution cost, 79% higher inference accuracy, 71% lower energy consumption and 56% lower response times compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.

In recent years, deep learning models have become ubiquitous in industry and academia alike. Deep neural networks can solve some of the most complex pattern-recognition problems today, but come with the price of massive compute and memory requirements. This makes the problem of deploying such large-scale neural networks challenging in resource-constrained mobile edge computing platforms, specifically in mission-critical domains like surveillance and healthcare. To solve this, a promising solution is to split resource-hungry neural networks into lightweight disjoint smaller components for pipelined distributed processing. At present, there are two main approaches to do this: semantic and layer-wise splitting. The former partitions a neural network into parallel disjoint models that produce a part of the result, whereas the latter partitions into sequential models that produce intermediate results. However, there is no intelligent algorithm that decides which splitting strategy to use and places such modular splits to edge nodes for optimal performance. To combat this, this work proposes a novel AI-driven online policy, SplitPlace, that uses Multi-Armed-Bandits to intelligently decide between layer and semantic splitting strategies based on the input task's service deadline demands. SplitPlace places such neural network split fragments on mobile edge devices using decision-aware reinforcement learning for efficient and scalable computing. Moreover, SplitPlace fine-tunes its placement engine to adapt to volatile environments. Our experiments on physical mobile-edge environments with real-world workloads show that SplitPlace can significantly improve the state-of-the-art in terms of average response time, deadline violation rate, inference accuracy, and total reward by up to 46, 69, 3 and 12 percent respectively.

Edge Federation is a new computing paradigm that seamlessly interconnects the resources of multiple edge service providers. A key challenge in such systems is the deployment of latency-critical and AI based resource-intensive applications in constrained devices. To address this challenge, we propose a novel memory-efficient deep learning based model, namely generative optimization networks (GON). Unlike GANs, GONs use a single network to both discriminate input and generate samples, significantly reducing their memory footprint. Leveraging the low memory footprint of GONs, we propose a decentralized fault-tolerance method called DRAGON that runs simulations (as per a digital modeling twin) to quickly predict and optimize the performance of the edge federation. Extensive experiments with real-world edge computing benchmarks on multiple Raspberry-Pi based federated edge configurations show that DRAGON can outperform the baseline methods in fault-detection and Quality of Service (QoS) metrics. Specifically, the proposed method gives higher F1 scores for fault-detection than the best deep learning (DL) method, while consuming lower memory than the heuristic methods. This allows for improvement in energy consumption, response time and service level agreement violations by up to 74, 63 and 82 percent, respectively.

Intelligent Virtual Machine (VM) provisioning is central to cost and resource efficient computation in cloud computing environments. As bootstrapping VMs is time-consuming, a key challenge for latency-critical tasks is to predict future workload demands to provision VMs proactively. However, existing AI-based solutions tend to not holistically consider all crucial aspects such as provisioning overheads, heterogeneous VM costs and Quality of Service (QoS) of the cloud system. To address this, we propose a novel method, called CILP, that formulates the VM provisioning problem as two sub-problems of prediction and optimization, where the provisioning plan is optimized based on predicted workload demands. CILP leverages a neural network as a surrogate model to predict future workload demands with a co-simulated digital-twin of the infrastructure to compute QoS scores. We extend the neural network to also act as an imitation learner that dynamically decides the optimal VM provisioning plan. A transformer based neural model reduces training and inference overheads while our novel two-phase decision making loop facilitates in making informed provisioning decisions. Crucially, we address limitations of prior work by including resource utilization, deployment costs and provisioning overheads to inform the provisioning decisions in our imitation learning framework. Experiments with three public benchmarks demonstrate that CILP gives up to 22% higher resource utilization, 14% higher QoS scores and 44% lower execution costs compared to the current online and offline optimization based state-of-the-art methods.

A common performance problem in large-scale cloud systems is dealing with straggler tasks that are slow running instances which increase the overall response time. Such tasks impact the system's QoS and the SLA. There is a need for automatic straggler detection and mitigation mechanisms that execute jobs without violating the SLA. Prior work typically builds reactive models that focus first on detection and then mitigation of straggler tasks, which leads to delays. Other works use prediction based proactive mechanisms, but ignore volatile task characteristics. We propose a Straggler Prediction and Mitigation Technique (START) that is able to predict which tasks might be stragglers and dynamically adapt scheduling to achieve lower response times. START analyzes all tasks and hosts based on compute and network resource consumption using an Encoder LSTM network to predict and mitigate expected straggler tasks. This reduces the SLA violation rate and execution time without compromising QoS. Specifically, we use the CloudSim toolkit to simulate START and compare it with IGRU-SD, SGC, Dolly, GRASS, NearestFit and Wrangler in terms of QoS parameters. Experiments show that START reduces execution time, resource contention, energy and SLA violations by 13%, 11%, 16%, 19%, compared to the state-of-the-art.

Task scheduling is a well-studied problem in the context of optimizing the Quality of Service (QoS) of cloud computing environments. In order to sustain the rapid growth of computational demands, one of the most important QoS metrics for cloud schedulers is the execution cost. In this regard, several data-driven deep neural networks (DNNs) based schedulers have been proposed in recent years to allow scalable and efficient resource management in dynamic workload settings. However, optimal scheduling frequently relies on sophisticated DNNs with high computational needs implying higher execution costs. Further, even in non-stationary environments, sophisticated schedulers might not always be required and we could briefly rely on low-cost schedulers in the interest of cost-efficiency. Therefore, this work aims to solve the non-trivial meta problem of online dynamic selection of a scheduling policy using a surrogate model called MetaNet. Unlike traditional solutions with a fixed scheduling policy, MetaNet on-the-fly chooses a scheduler from a large set of DNN based methods to optimize task scheduling and execution costs in tandem. Compared to state-of-the-art DNN schedulers, this allows for improvement in execution costs, energy consumption, response time and service level agreement violations by up to 11, 43, 8 and 13 percent, respectively.

In recent years, the deployment of large-scale Inter-net of Things (IoT) applications has given rise to edge federations that seamlessly interconnect and leverage resources from multiple edge service providers. The requirement of supporting both latency-sensitive and compute-intensive IoT tasks necessitates service resilience, especially for the broker nodes in typical broker-worker deployment designs. Existing fault-tolerance or resilience schemes often lack robustness and generalization capability in non-stationary workload settings. This is typically due to the expensive periodic fine-tuning of models required to adapt them in dynamic scenarios. To address this, we present a confidence aware resilience model, CAROL, that utilizes a memory-efficient generative neural network to predict the Quality of Service (QoS) for a future state and a confidence score for each prediction. Thus, whenever a broker fails, we quickly recover the system by executing a local-search over the broker-worker topology space and optimize future QoS. The confidence score enables us to keep track of the prediction performance and run parsimonious neural network fine-tuning to avoid excessive overheads, further improving the QoS of the system. Experiments on a Raspberry-Pi based edge testbed with IoT benchmark applications show that CAROL outperforms state-of-the-art resilience schemes by reducing the energy consumption, deadline violation rates and resilience overheads by up to 16, 17 and 36 percent, respectively.

Building a fault-tolerant edge system that can quickly react to node overloads or failures is challenging due to the unreliability of edge devices and the strict service deadlines of modern applications. Moreover, unnecessary task migrations can stress the system network, giving rise to the need for a smart and parsimonious failure recovery scheme. Prior approaches often fail to adapt to highly volatile workloads or accurately detect and diagnose faults for optimal remediation. There is thus a need for a robust and proactive fault-tolerance mechanism to meet service level objectives. In this work, we propose PreGAN, a composite AI model using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to predict preemptive migration decisions for proactive fault-tolerance in containerized edge deployments. PreGAN uses co-simulations in tandem with a GAN to learn a few-shot anomaly classifier and proactively predict migration decisions for reliable computing. Extensive experiments on a Raspberry-Pi based edge environment show that PreGAN can outperform state-of-the-art baseline methods in fault-detection, diagnosis and classification, thus achieving high quality of service. PreGAN accomplishes this by 5.1% more accurate fault detection, higher diagnosis scores and 23.8% lower overheads compared to the best method among the considered baselines.

Efficient anomaly detection and diagnosis in multivariate time-series data is of great importance for modern industrial applications. However, building a system that is able to quickly and accurately pinpoint anomalous observations is a challenging problem. This is due to the lack of anomaly labels, high data volatility and the demands of ultra-low inference times in modern applications. Despite the recent developments of deep learning approaches for anomaly detection, only a few of them can address all of these challenges. In this paper, we propose TranAD, a deep transformer network based anomaly detection and diagnosis model which uses attention-based sequence encoders to swiftly perform inference with the knowledge of the broader temporal trends in the data. TranAD uses focus score-based self-conditioning to enable robust multi-modal feature extraction and adversarial training to gain stability. Additionally, model-agnostic meta learning (MAML) allows us to train the model using limited data. Extensive empirical studies on six publicly available datasets demonstrate that TranAD can outperform state-of-the-art baseline methods in detection and diagnosis performance with data and time-efficient training. Specifically, TranAD increases F1 scores by up to 17%, reducing training times by up to 99% compared to the baselines.

Recently, intelligent scheduling approaches using surrogate models have been proposed to efficiently allocate volatile tasks in heterogeneous fog environments. Advances like deterministic surrogate models, deep neural networks (DNN) and gradient-based optimization allow low energy consumption and response times to be reached. However, deterministic surrogate models, which estimate objective values for optimization, do not consider the uncertainties in the distribution of the Quality of Service (QoS) objective function that can lead to high Service Level Agreement (SLA) violation rates. Moreover, the brittle nature of DNN training and the limited exploration with low agility in gradient-based optimization prevent such models from reaching minimal energy or response times. To overcome these difficulties, we present a novel scheduler that we call GOSH for Gradient Based Optimization using Second Order derivatives and Heteroscedastic Deep Surrogate Models. GOSH uses a second-order gradient based optimization approach to obtain better QoS and reduce the number of iterations to converge to a scheduling decision, subsequently lowering the scheduling time. Instead of a vanilla DNN, GOSH uses a Natural Parameter Network (NPN) to approximate objective scores. Further, a Lower Confidence Bound (LCB) optimization approach allows GOSH to find an optimal trade-off between greedy minimization of the mean latency and uncertainty reduction by employing error-based exploration. Thus, GOSH and its co-simulation based extension GOSH*, can adapt quickly and reach better objective scores than baseline methods. We show that GOSH* reaches better objective scores than GOSH, but it is suitable only for high resource availability settings, whereas GOSH is apt for limited resource settings. Real system experiments for both GOSH and GOSH* show significant improvements against the state-of-the-art in terms of energy consumption, response time and SLA violations by up to 18, 27 and 82 percent, respectively.

Intelligent task placement and management of tasks in large-scale fog platforms is challenging due to the highly volatile nature of modern workload applications and sensitive user requirements of low energy consumption and response time. Container orchestration platforms have emerged to alleviate this problem with prior art either using heuristics to quickly reach scheduling decisions or AI driven methods like reinforcement learning and evolutionary approaches to adapt to dynamic scenarios. The former often fail to quickly adapt in highly dynamic environments, whereas the latter have run-times that are slow enough to negatively impact response time. Therefore, there is a need for scheduling policies that are both reactive to work efficiently in volatile environments and have low scheduling overheads. To achieve this, we propose a Gradient Based Optimization Strategy using Back-propagation of gradients with respect to Input (GOBI). Further, we leverage the accuracy of predictive digital-twin models and simulation capabilities by developing a Coupled Simulation and Container Orchestration Framework (COSCO). Using this, we create a hybrid simulation driven decision approach, GOBI*, to optimize Quality of Service (QoS) parameters. Co-simulation and the back-propagation approaches allow these methods to adapt quickly in volatile environments. Experiments conducted using real-world data on fog applications using the GOBI and GOBI* methods, show a significant improvement in terms of energy consumption, response time, Service Level Objective and scheduling time by up to 15, 40, 4, and 82 percent respectively when compared to the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) are an important framework for modeling coordinated decision-making problems in multi-agent systems with a set of discrete variables. Later works have extended DCOPs to model problems with a set of continuous variables, named Functional DCOPs (F-DCOPs). In this paper, we combine both of these frameworks into the Mixed Integer Functional DCOP (MIF-DCOP) framework that can deal with problems regardless of their variables' type. We then propose a novel algorithm - Distributed Parallel Simulated Annealing (DPSA), where agents cooperatively learn the optimal parameter configuration for the algorithm while also solving the given problem using the learned knowledge. Finally, we empirically evaluate our approach in DCOP, F-DCOP, and MIF-DCOP settings and show that DPSA produces solutions of significantly better quality than the state-of-the-art non-exact algorithms in their corresponding settings.

In crowdsourcing systems, it is important for the crowdsource campaign initiator to incentivize users to share their data to produce results of the desired computational accuracy. This problem becomes especially challenging when users are concerned about the privacy of their data. To overcome this challenge, existing work often aims to provide users with differential privacy guarantees to incentivize privacy-sensitive users to share their data. However, this work neglects the network effect that a user enjoys greater privacy protection when he aligns his participation behaviour with that of other users. To explore this network effect, we formulate the interaction among users regarding their participation decisions as a population game, because a user’s welfare from the interaction depends not only on his own participation decision but also the distribution of others’ decisions. We show that the Nash equilibrium of this game consists of a threshold strategy, where all users whose privacy sensitivity is below a certain threshold will participate and the remaining users will not. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of this equilibrium, which depends on the privacy guarantee, the reward provided by the initiator and the population size. Based on this equilibria analysis, we design the PINE (Privacy Incentivization with Network Effects) mechanism and prove that it maximizes the initiator’s payoff while providing participating users with a guaranteed degree of privacy protection. Numerical simulations, on both real and synthetic data, show that (i) PINE improves the initiator’s expected payoff by up to 75%, compared to state of the art mechanisms that do not consider this effect; (ii) the performance gain by exploiting the network effect is particularly good when the majority of users are flexible over their privacy attitudes and when there are a large number of low quality task performers.

Most violent crimes happen in urban and suburban cities. With emerging tracking techniques, law enforcement officers can have real-time location information of the escaping criminals and dynamically adjust the security resource allocation to interdict them. Unfortunately, existing work on urban network security games largely ignores such information. This paper addresses this omission. First, we show that ignoring the real-time information can cause an arbitrarily large loss of efficiency. To mitigate this loss, we propose a novel NEtwork purSuiT game (NEST) model that captures the interaction between an escaping adversary and a defender with multiple resources and real-time information available. Second, solving NEST is proven to be NP-hard. Third, after transforming the non-convex program of solving NEST to a linear program, we propose our incremental strategy generation algorithm, including: (i) novel pruning techniques in our best response oracle; and (ii) novel techniques for mapping strategies between subgames and adding multiple best response strategies at one iteration to solve extremely large problems. Finally, extensive experiments show the effectiveness of our approach, which scales up to realistic problem sizes with hundreds of nodes on networks including the real network of Manhattan.

People who observe a multi-agent team can often provide valuable information to the agents based on their superior cognitive abilities to interpret sequences of observations and assess the overall situation. The knowledge they possess is often difficult to be fully represent using a formal model such as DEC-POMDP. To deal with this, we propose an extension of the DEC-POMDP that allows states to be partially specified and benefit from expert knowledge, while preserving the partial observability and decentralized operation of the agents. In particular, we present an algorithm for computing policies based on history samples that include human labeled data in the form of reward reshaping. We also consider ways to minimize the burden on human experts during the labeling phase. The results offer the first approach to incorporating human knowledge in such complex multi-agent settings. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach using a disaster recovery scenario, comparing it to several baseline approaches.

A key challenge in crowdsourcing is inferring the ground truth from noisy and unreliable data. To do so, existing approaches rely on collecting redundant information from the crowd, and aggregating it with some probabilistic method. However, oftentimes such methods are computationally inefficient, are restricted to some specific settings, or lack theoretical guarantees. In this paper, we revisit the problem of binary classification from crowdsourced data. Specifically we propose Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourcing (SBIC), a new algorithm that does not suffer from any of these limitations. First, SBIC has low complexity and can be used in a real-time online setting. Second, SBIC has the same accuracy as the best state-of-the-art algorithms in all settings. Third, SBIC has provable asymptotic guarantees both in the online and offline settings.

The Internet of Things (IoT) promises to enable applications that foster a more efficient, sustainable, and healthy way of life. If end-users are to take full advantage of these developments we foresee the need for future IoT systems and services to include an element of autonomy and support the delegation of agency to software processes and connected devices. To inform the design of such future technology, we report on a breaching experiment designed to investigate how people integrate an unpredictable service, through the veg box scheme, in everyday life. Findings from our semi-structured interviews and a two-week diary study with 11 households reveal that agency delegation must be warranted, that it must be possible to incorporate delegated decisions into everyday activities, and that delegation is subject to constraint. We further discuss design implications on the need to support people's diverse values, and their coordinative and creative practices.

In our increasingly connected world, computation is everywhere and we are generating ever more data about everything. These trends will profoundly change the ways in which we work with computers. Specifically, we need the machines to be smarter and more helpful. Central to this vision is the means by which we can forge effective partnerships with such artificial intelligence (AI) systems. Until now, humans have generally been the masters and technology the slave. This needs to change. Today's AI systems can act on high-level human commands and achieve complex goals in a flexible manner. But, while such systems are good at solving narrowly defined tasks, they don't know how to collaborate with humans or how to operate as part of a problem-solving team. This talk will explore how humans and AI systems can work together. In such partnerships, the humans and the AI systems complement each other's strengths and weaknesses, leading to a rise in the humans, as well as in the machines. Drawing on multi-disciplinary work in the areas of AI, autonomous systems, machine learning, crowd sourcing and ubiquitous computing, this talk explores the scientific underpinning of such systems, the applications they have been applied to, and the societal implications of their widespread adoption.

The quality of crowdsourced data is often highly variable. For this reason, it is common to collect redundant data and use statistical methods to aggregate it. Empirical studies show that the policies we use to collect such data have a strong impact on the accuracy of the system. However, there is little theoretical understanding of this phenomenon. In this paper we provide the first theoretical explanation of the accuracy gap between the most popular collection policies: the non-adaptive uniform allocation, and the adaptive uncertainty sampling and information gain maximisation. To do so, we propose a novel representation of the collection process in terms of random walks. Then, we use this tool to derive lower and upper bounds on the accuracy of the policies. With these bounds, we are able to quantify the advantage that the two adaptive policies have over the non-adaptive one for the first time.

This paper develops a new approach to speed up Generalized Distributive Law (GDL) based message passing algorithms that are used to solve large-scale Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs) in multi-agent systems. In particular, we significantly reduce computation and communication costs in terms of convergence time for algorithms such as Max-Sum, Bounded Max-Sum, Fast Max-Sum, Bounded Fast Max-Sum, BnB Max-Sum, BnB Fast Max-Sum and Generalized Fast Belief Propagation. This is important since it is often observed that the outcome obtained from such algorithms becomes outdated or unusable if the optimization process takes too much time. Specifically, the issue of taking too long to complete the internal operation of a DCOP algorithm is even more severe and commonplace in a system where the algorithm has to deal with a large number of agents, tasks and resources. This, in turn, limits the practical scalability of such algorithms. In other words, an optimization algorithm can be used in larger systems if the completion time can be reduced. However, it is challenging to maintain the solution quality while minimizing the completion time. Considering this trade-off, we propose a generic message passing protocol for GDL-based algorithms that combines clustering with domain pruning, as well as the use of a regression method to determine the appropriate number of clusters for a given scenario. We empirically evaluate the performance of our method in a number of settings and find that it brings down the completion time by around 37–85% (1.6–6.5 times faster) for 100–900 nodes, and by around 47–91% (1.9–11 times faster) for 3000–10 000 nodes compared to the current state-of-the-art.

Environmental monitoring allows authorities to understand the impact of potentially harmful phenomena, such as air pollution, excessive noise, and radiation. Recently, there has been considerable interest in participatory sensing as a paradigm for such large-scale data collection because it is cost-effective and able to capture more fine-grained data than traditional approaches that use stationary sensors scattered in cities. In this approach, ordinary citizens (non-expert contributors) collect environmental data using low-cost mobile devices. However, these participants are generally self-interested actors that have their own goals and make local decisions about when and where to take measurements. This can lead to highly inefficient outcomes, where observations are either taken redundantly or do not provide sufficient information about key areas of interest. To address these challenges, it is necessary to guide and to coordinate participants, so they take measurements when it is most informative. To this end, we develop a computationally-efficient coordination algorithm (adaptive Best-Match) that suggests to users when and where to take measurements. Our algorithm exploits probabilistic knowledge of human mobility patterns, but explicitly considers the uncertainty of these patterns and the potential unwillingness of people to take measurements when requested to do so. In particular, our algorithm uses a local search technique, clustering and random simulations to map participants to measurements that need to be taken in space and time. We empirically evaluate our algorithm on a real-world human mobility and air quality dataset and show that it outperforms the current state of the art by up to 24% in terms of utility gained.

editorial Free Access Share on ACM TIST Special Issue on Urban Intelligence Editors: Bo An Nanyang Technological University Nanyang Technological UniversityView Profile , Nick Jennings Imperial College Imperial CollegeView Profile , Zhenhui Jessie Li Pennsylvania State University Pennsylvania State UniversityView Profile Authors Info & Claims ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and TechnologyVolume 9Issue 3May 2018 Article No.: 23pp 1–4https://doi.org/10.1145/3154942Published:24 November 2017Publication History 0citation611DownloadsMetricsTotal Citations0Total Downloads611Last 12 Months37Last 6 weeks7 Get Citation AlertsNew Citation Alert added!This alert has been successfully added and will be sent to:You will be notified whenever a record that you have chosen has been cited.To manage your alert preferences, click on the button below.Manage my AlertsNew Citation Alert!Please log in to your account Save to BinderSave to BinderCreate a New BinderNameCancelCreateExport CitationPublisher SiteeReaderPDF

The dollar auction is an auction model used to analyse the dynamics of conflict escalation. In this paper, we analyse the course of an auction when participating players are spiteful, i.e., they are motivated not only by their own profit, but also by the desire to hurt the opponent. We investigate this model for the complete information setting, both for the standard scenario and for the situation where auction starts with non-zero bids. Our results give us insight into the possible effects of meanness onto conflict escalation.

Participatory sensing (PS) has gained significant attention as a crowdsourcing methodology that allows ordinary citizens (non-expert contributors) to collect data using low-cost mobile devices. In particular, it has been useful in the collection of environmental data. However, current PS applications suffer from two problems. First, they do not coordinate the measurements taken by their users, which is required to maximise system efficiency. Second, they are vulnerable to malicious behaviour. In this context, we propose a novel algorithm that simultaneously addresses both of these problems. Specifically, we use heteroskedastic Gaussian Processes to incorporate users' trustworthiness into a Bayesian spatio-temporal regression model. The model is trained with measurements taken by participants, thus it is able to estimate the value of the phenomenon at any spatio-temporal location of interest and also learn the level of trustworthiness of each user. Given this model, the coordination system is able to make informed decisions concerning when, where and who should take measurements over a period of time. We empirically evaluate our algorithm on a real-world human mobility and air quality dataset, where malicious behaviour is synthetically produced, and show that our algorithm outperforms the current state of the art by up to 60.4% in terms of RMSE while having a reasonable runtime.

We consider settings where electric vehicle drivers participate in a market mechanism to charge their vehicles. Existing work typically assumes that participants are fully rational and can report their charging preferences accurately. However, this may not be reasonable in settings with non-experts. To explore this, we design a novel game called Bid2Charge and compare a fully expressive interface that covers the entire space of preferences to two restricted interfaces that offer fewer possible reports. We show that restricting the users' preferences significantly reduces deliberation times while also leading to an increase in utility by up to 70%.

A key problem in crowdsourcing is the aggregation of judgments of proportions. For example, workers might be presented with a news article or an image, and be asked to identify the proportion of each topic, sentiment, object, or colour present in it. These varying judgments then need to be aggregated to form a consensus view of the document’s or image’s contents. Often, however, these judgments are skewed by workers who provide judgments randomly. Such spammers make the cost of acquiring judgments more expensive and degrade the accuracy of the aggregation. For such cases, we provide a new Bayesian framework for aggregating these responses (expressed in the form of categorical distributions) that for the first time accounts for spammers. We elicit 796 judgments about proportions of objects and coloursin images. Experimental results show comparable aggregation accuracy when 60% of the workers are spammers, as other state of the art approaches do when there are no spammers.

Preventing crimes or terrorist attacks in urban areas is challenging. Law enforcement officers need to respond quickly to catch the attacker on his escape route, which is subject to time-dependent traffic conditions on transportation networks. The attacker can strategically choose his escape path and driving speed to avoid being captured. Existing work on security resource allocation has not considered such scenarios with time-dependent strategies for both players. Therefore, in this paper, we study the problem of efficiently scheduling security resources for interdicting the escaping attacker. We propose: 1) a new defender-attacker security game model for escape interdiction on transportation networks; and 2) an efficient double oracle algorithm to compute the optimal defender strategy, which combines mixed-integer linear programming formulations for best response problems and effective approximation algorithms for improving the scalability of the algorithms. Experimental evaluation shows that our approach significantly outperforms baselines in solution quality and scales up to realistic-sized transportation networks with hundreds of intersections.

We consider settings where owners of electric vehicles (EVs) participate in a market mechanism to charge their vehicles. Existing work on such mechanisms has typically assumed that participants are fully rational and can report their preferences accurately via some interface to the mechanism or to a software agent participating on their behalf. However, this may not be reasonable in settings with non-expert human end-users.Thus, our overarching aim in this paper is to determine experimentally if a fully expressive market interface that enables accurate preference reports is suitable for the EV charging domain, or, alternatively, if a simpler, restricted interface that reduces the space of possible options is preferable. In doing this, we measure the performance of an interface both in terms of how it helps participants maximise their utility and how it affects deliberation time. Our secondary objective is to contrast two different types of restricted interfaces that vary in how they restrict the space of preferences that can be reported. To enable this analysis, we develop a novel game that replicates key features of an abstract EV charging scenario. In two experiments with over 300 users, we show that restricting the users' preferences significantly reduces the time they spend deliberating (by up to half in some cases). An extensive usability survey confirms that this restriction is furthermore associated with a lower perceived cognitive burden on the users. More surprisingly, at the same time, using restricted interfaces leads to an increase in the users' performance compared to the fully expressive interface (by up to 70%). We also show that some restricted interfaces have the desirable effect of reducing the energy consumption of their users by up to 20% while achieving the same utility as other interfaces. Finally, we find that a reinforcement learning agent displays similar performance trends to human users, enabling a novel methodology for evaluating market interfaces.

Over the past few years, Domestic Heating Automation Systems (DHASs) that optimize the domestic space heating control process with minimum user input, utilizing appropriate occupancy prediction technology, have emerged as commercial products (e.g., the smart thermostats from Nest and Honeywell). At the same time, many houses are being equipped with, potentially grid-connected, Intermittent Energy Resources (IERs), such as rooftop photovoltaic systems and/or small wind turbine generators. Now, in many regions of the world, such houses can sell energy to the grid but at a lower price than the price of buying it. In this context, and given the anticipated increase in electrification of heating, the next generation DHASs need to incorporate Advanced Economic Control (AEC). Such AEC can exploit the energy buffer that heating loads provide, in order to shift the consumption of electricity-based heating systems to follow the intermittent energy generation of the house. By so doing, the energy imported from the grid can be minimized and considerable monetary gains for the household can be achieved, without affecting the occupants’ schedule. These benefits can be amplified still further in domestic coalitions, where a number of houses come together and share their IER generation to minimize their cumulative grid energy import. Given the above, in this work we extend a state-of-the-art DHAS, to propose AdaHeat+, a practical DHAS, that, for the first time, incorporates AEC. Our work is applicable to both individual houses and domestic coalitions and comes complete with an allocation mechanism to share the coalition gains. Importantly, we propose an effective heuristic heating schedule planning approach for collective AEC that (i) has a complexity that scales in a linear and parallelizable manner with the coalition size, and (ii) enables AdaHeat+ to handle the distinct preferences, in balancing heating cost and thermal discomfort, of the households. Our approach relies on stochastic IER power output predictions. In this context, we propose a simple and effective formulation for the site-specific calibration of such predictions based on adaptive Gaussian process modeling. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of AdaHeat+ through real data evaluation, to show that collective AEC can improve heating cost-efficiency by up to 60%, compared to independent AEC (and even more when compared to no-AEC).

Participatory sensing is a promising new low-cost approach for collecting environmental data. However, current large-scale environmental participatory sensing campaigns typically do not coordinate the measurements of participants, which can lead to gaps or redundancy in the collected data. While some work has considered this problem, it has made several unrealistic assumptions. In particular, it assumes that complete and accurate knowledge about the participants future movements is available and it does not consider constraints on the number of measurements a user is willing to take. To address these shortcomings, we develop a computationally-efficient coordination algorithm (Best-match) to suggest to users where and when to take measurements. Our algorithm exploits human mobility patterns, but explicitly considers the inherent uncertainty of these patterns. We empirically evaluate our algorithm on a real-world human mobility and air quality dataset and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art greedy and pull-based proximity algorithms in dynamic environments.

The coordination of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to carry out aerial surveys is a major challenge for emergency responders. In particular, UAVs have to fly over kilometre-scale areas while trying to discover casualties as quickly as possible. To aid in this process, it is desirable to exploit the increasing availability of data about a disaster from sources such as crowd reports, satellite remote sensing, or manned reconnaissance. In particular, such information can be a valuable resource to drive the planning of UAV flight paths over a space in order to discover people who are in danger. However challenges of computational tractability remain when planning over the very large action spaces that result. To overcome these, we introduce the survivor discovery problem and present as our solution, the first example of a continuous factored coordinated Monte Carlo tree search algorithm. Our evaluation against state of the art benchmarks show that our algorithm, Co-CMCTS, is able to localise more casualties faster than standard approaches by 7% or more on simulations with real-world data.

Many aspects of the design of efficient crowdsourcing processes, such as defining worker’s bonuses, fair prices and time limits of the tasks, involve knowledge of the likely duration of the task at hand. In this work we introduce a new time–sensitive Bayesian aggregation method that simultaneously estimates a task’s duration and obtains reliable aggregations of crowdsourced judgments. Our method, called BCCTime, uses latent variables to represent the uncertainty about the workers’ completion time, the tasks’ duration and the workers’ accuracy. To relate the quality of a judgment to the time a worker spends on a task, our model assumes that each task is completed within a latent time window within which all workers with a propensity to genuinely attempt the labelling task (i.e., no spammers) are expected to submit their judgments. In contrast, workers with a lower propensity to valid labelling, such as spammers, bots or lazy labellers, are assumed to perform tasks considerably faster or slower than the time required by normal workers. Specifically, we use efficient message-passing Bayesian inference to learn approximate posterior probabilities of (i) the confusion matrix of each worker, (ii) the propensity to valid labelling of each worker, (iii) the unbiased duration of each task and (iv) the true label of each task. Using two real- world public datasets for entity linking tasks, we show that BCCTime produces up to 11% more accurate classifications and up to 100% more informative estimates of a task’s duration compared to state–of–the–art methods.

This paper introduces a novel intention-aware routing system (IARS) for electric vehicles. This system enables vehicles to compute a routing policy that minimizes their expected journey time while considering the policies, or intentions, of other vehicles. Considering such intentions is critical for electric vehicles, which may need to recharge en route and face potentially significant queueing times if other vehicles choose the same charging stations. To address this, the computed routing policy takes into consideration predicted queueing times at the stations, which are derived from the current intentions of other electric vehicles. The efficacy of IARS is demonstrated through simulations using realistic settings based on real data from The Netherlands, including charging station locations, road networks, historical travel times, and journey origin-destination pairs. In these settings, IARS is compared with a number of state-of-the-art benchmark routing algorithms and achieves significantly lower average journey times. In some cases, IARS leads to an over 80% improvement in waiting times at charging stations and a more than 50% reduction in overall journey times.

Smart systems are becoming increasingly ubiquitous and consequently transforming our lives. The level of system autonomy plays a vital role in the development of smart systems as it profoundly affects how people and these systems interact with each other. However, to date, there are very few studies on human interaction with such systems. This paper presents findings from two field studies where two different prototypes for automating energy tariff-switching were developed and evaluated in the wild. Both prototypes offer flexible autonomy by which users can shift the system's level of autonomy among three options: suggestion-only, semi-autonomy, and full autonomy, whenever they like. Our findings based on thematic analysis show that flexible autonomy is a promising way to sustain users' engagement with smart systems, despite their occasional mistakes. The findings also suggest that users take responsibility for the undesired outcomes of automated actions when delegation of autonomy can be adjusted flexibly.

We study convergence properties of iterative voting procedures. Such procedures are defined by a voting rule and a (restricted) iterative process, where at each step one agent can modify his vote towards a better outcome for himself. It is already known that if the iteration dynamics (the manner in which voters are allowed to modify their votes) are unrestricted, then the voting process may not converge. For most common voting rules this may be observed even under the best response dynamics limitation. It is therefore important to investigate whether and which natural restrictions on the dynamics of iterative voting procedures can guarantee convergence. To this end, we provide two general conditions on the dynamics based on iterative myopic improvements, each of which is sufficient for convergence. We then identify several classes of voting rules (including Positional Scoring Rules, Maximin, Copeland and Bucklin), along with their corresponding iterative processes, for which at least one of these conditions hold.

The power output of photovoltaic systems (PVS) increases with the use of effective and efficient solar tracking techniques. However, current techniques suffer from several drawbacks in their tracking policy: (i) they usually do not consider the forecasted or prevailing weather conditions; even when they do, they (ii) rely on complex closed-loop controllers and sophisticated instruments; and (iii) typically, they do not take the energy consumption of the trackers into account. In this paper, we propose a policy iteration method (along with specialized variants), which is able to calculate near-optimal trajectories for effective and efficient day-ahead solar tracking, based on weather forecasts coming from on-line providers. To account for the energy needs of the tracking system, the technique employs a novel and generic consumption model. Our simulations show that the proposed methods can increase the power output of a PVS considerably, when compared to standard solar tracking techniques.

We consider the problem of task allocation in crowdsourcing systems with multiple complex workflows, each of which consists of a set of inter-dependent micro-tasks.We propose Budgeteer, an algorithm to solve this problem under a budget constraint. In particular, our algorithm first calculates an efficient way to allocate budget to each workflow. It then determines the number of inter-dependent micro-tasks and the price to pay for each task within each workflow, given the corresponding budget constraints. We empirically evaluate it on a well-known crowdsourcing-based text correction workflow using Amazon Mechanical Turk, and show that Budgeteer can achieve similar levels of accuracy to current benchmarks, but is on average 45 % cheaper.

We present an open-source toolkit that allows the easy comparison of the performance of active learning methods over a series of datasets. The toolkit allows such strategies to be constructed by combining a judgement aggregation model, task selection method and worker selection method.The toolkit also provides a user interface which allows researchers to gain insight into worker performance and task classification at runtime.

Social media has led to the democratisation of opinion sharing. A wealth of information about public opinions, current events, and authors' insights into specific topics can be gained by understanding the text written by users. However, there is a wide variation in the language used by different authors in different contexts on the web. This diversity in language makes interpretation an extremely challenging task. Crowdsourcing presents an opportunity to interpret the sentiment, or topic, of free-text. However, the subjectivity and bias of human interpreters raise challenges in inferring the semantics expressed by the text. To overcome this problem, we present a novel Bayesian approach to language understanding that relies on aggregated crowdsourced judgements. Our model encodes the relationships between labels and text features in documents, such as tweets, web articles, and blog posts, accounting for the varying reliability of human labellers. It allows inference of annotations that scales to arbitrarily large pools of documents. Our evaluation using two challenging crowdsourcing datasets shows that by efficiently exploiting language models learnt from aggregated crowdsourced labels, we can provide up to 25% improved classifications when only a small portion, less than 4% of documents has been labelled. Compared to the six state-of-the-art methods, we reduce by up to 67% the number of crowd responses required to achieve comparable accuracy. Our method was a joint winner of the CrowdFlower - CrowdScale 2013 Shared Task challenge at the conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing (HCOMP 2013).

Minimizing the energy consumed by heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems of residential buildings without impacting occupants’ comfort has been highlighted as an important artificial intelligence (AI) challenge. Typically, approaches that seek to address this challenge use a model that captures the thermal dynamics within a building, also referred to as a thermal model. Among thermal models, gray-box models are a popular choice for modeling the thermal dynamics of buildings. They combine knowledge of the physical structure of a building with various data-driven inputs and are accurate estimators of the state (internal temperature). However, existing gray-box models require a detailed specification of all the physical elements that can affect the thermal dynamics of a building a priori. This limits their applicability, particularly in residential buildings, where additional dynamics can be induced by human activities such as cooking, which contributes additional heat, or opening of windows, which leads to additional leakage of heat. Since the incidence of these additional dynamics is rarely known, their combined effects cannot readily be accommodated within existing models. To overcome this limitation and improve the general applicability of gray-box models, we introduce a novel model, which we refer to as a latent force thermal model of the thermal dynamics of a building, or LFM-TM. Our model is derived from an existing gray-box thermal model, which is augmented with an extra term referred to as the learned residual. This term is capable of modeling the effect of any a priori unknown additional dynamic, which, if not captured, appears as a structure in a thermal model’s residual (the error induced by the model). More importantly, the learned residual can also capture the effects of physical elements such as a building’s envelope or the lags in a heating system, leading to a significant reduction in complexity compared to existing models. To evaluate the performance of LFM-TM, we apply it to two independent data sources. The first is an established dataset, referred to as the FlexHouse data, which was previously used for evaluating the efficacy of existing gray-box models [Bacher and Madsen 2011]. The second dataset consists of heating data logged within homes located on the University of Southampton campus, which were specifically instrumented to collect data for our thermal modeling experiments. On both datasets, we show that LFM-TM outperforms existing models in its ability to accurately fit the observed data, generate accurate day-ahead internal temperature predictions, and explain a large amount of the variability in the future observations. This, along with the fact that we also use a corresponding efficient sequential inference scheme for LFM-TM, makes it an ideal candidate for model-based predictive control, where having accurate online predictions of internal temperatures is essential for high-quality solutions.

Current electricity tariffs do not reflect the real cost that customers incur to suppliers, as units are charged at the same rate, regardless of how predictable each customer's consumption is. A recent proposal to address this problem are prediction-of-use tariffs. In such tariffs, a customer is asked in advance to predict her future consumption, and is charged based both on her actual consumption and the deviation from her prediction. Prior work {aamas2014} studied the cost game induced by a single such tariff, and showed customers would have an incentive to minimize their risk, by joining together when buying electricity as a grand coalition. In this work we study the efficient (i.e. cost-minimizing) structure of buying groups for the more realistic setting when multiple, competing prediction-of-use tariffs are available. We propose a polynomial time algorithm to compute efficient buyer groups, and validate our approach experimentally, using a large-scale data set of domestic electricity consumers in the UK.

Many multi-agent coordination problems can be represented as DCOPs. Motivated by task allocation in disaster response, we extend standard DCOP models to consider uncertain task rewards where the outcome of completing a task depends on its current state, which is randomly drawn from unknown distributions. The goal of solving this problem is to find a solution for all agents that minimizes the overall worst-case loss. This is a challenging problem for centralized algorithms because the search space grows exponentially with the number of agents and is nontrivial for existing algorithms for standard DCOPs. To address this, we propose a novel decentralized algorithm that incorporates Max-Sum with iterative constraint generation to solve the problem by passing messages among agents. By so doing, our approach scales well and can solve instances of the task allocation problem with hundreds of agents and tasks.

Future energy systems that rely on renewable energy may bring about a radical shift in how we use energy in our homes. We developed and prototyped a future scenario with highly variable, real-time electricity prices due to a grid that mainly relies on renewables. We designed and deployed an agent-based interactive system that enables users to effectively operate the washing machine in this scenario. The system is used to book timeslots of washing machine use so that the agent can help to minimize the cost of a wash by charging a battery at times when electricity is cheap. We carried out a deployment in 10 households in order to uncover the socio-technical challenges around integrating new technologies into everyday routines. The findings reveal tensions that arise when deploying a rationalistic system to manage contingently and socially organized domestic practices. We discuss the trade-offs between utility and convenience inherent in smart grid applications; and illustrate how certain design choices position applications along this spectrum.

Word-of-mouth, referral, or viral marketing is a highly sought-after way of advertising. In this paper, we investigate whether such marketing can be encouraged through incentive mechanisms, thus allowing an organisation to effectively crowdsource their marketing. Specifically, we undertake a field experiment that compares several mechanisms for incentivising social media shares in support of a charitable cause. Our experiment takes place on a website promoting a fundraising drive by a large cancer research charity. Site visitors who sign up to support the cause are asked to spread the word about it on Facebook, Twitter or other channels. They are randomly assigned to one of four treatments that differ in the way social sharing activities are incentivised. Under the control treatment, no extra incentive is provided. Under two of the other mechanisms, the sharers are offered a fixed number of points that help take the campaign further. We compare low and high levels of such incentives for direct referrals. In the final treatment, we adopt a multi-level incentive mechanism that rewards direct as well as indirect referrals (where referred contacts refer others). We find that providing a high level of incentives results in a statistically significant increase in sharing behaviour and resulting signups. Our data does not indicate a statistically significant increase for the low and multi-level incentive mechanisms.

This paper demonstrates a decentralized method for optimization using game-theoretic multi-agent techniques, applied to a sensor network management problem. Our first major contribution is to show how the marginal contribution utility design is used to construct an unknown-reward potential game formulation of the problem. This formulation exploits the sparse structure of sensor network problems, and allows us to apply a bound to the price of anarchy of the Nash equilibria of the induced game. Furthermore, since the game is a potential game, solutions can be found using multi-agent learning techniques. The techniques we derive use Q-learning to estimate an agent's rewards, while an action adaptation process responds to an agent's opponents’ behaviour. However, there are many different algorithmic configurations that could be used to solve these games. Thus, our second major contribution is an extensive evaluation of several action adaptation processes. Specifically, we compare six algorithms across a variety of parameter settings to ascertain the quality of the solutions they produce, their speed of convergence and their robustness to pre-specified parameter choices. Our results show that they each perform similarly across a wide range of parameters. There is, however, a significant effect from moving to a learning policy with sampling probabilities that go to zero too quickly for rewards to be accurately estimated.

This paper tackles the problem of parallelizing heterogeneous computational tasks across a number of computational nodes (aka agents) where each agent may not be able to perform all the tasks and may have different computational speeds. An equivalent problem can be found in operations research, and it is known as scheduling tasks on unrelated parallel machines (also known as R∥Cmax). Given this equivalence observation, we present the spanning tree decentralized task distribution algorithm (ST-DTDA), the first decentralized solution to R∥Cmax. ST-DTDA achieves decomposition by means of the min–max algorithm, a member of the generalized distributive law family, that performs inference by message-passing along the edges of a graphical model (known as a junction tree). Specifically, ST-DTDA uses min–max to optimally solve an approximation of the original R∥Cmax problem that results from eliminating possible agent-task allocations until it is mapped into an acyclic structure. To eliminate those allocations that are least likely to have an impact on the solution quality, ST-DTDA uses a heuristic approach. Moreover, ST-DTDA provides a per-instance approximation ratio that guarantees that the makespan of its solution (optimal in the approximated R∥Cmax problem) is not more than a factor ρ times the makespan of the optimal of the original problem. In our empirical evaluation of ST-DTDA, we show that ST-DTDA, with a min-regret heuristic, converges to solutions that are between 78 and 95% optimal whilst providing approximation ratios lower than 3.

Many crowdsourcing applications require spatial data modelling to make sense of location-based observations provided by multiple users. In this context, we propose a new spatial function modelling approach to address the problem of fusing multiple spatial observations reported by possibly untrustworthy users in the domains of participatory sensing and crowdsourcing applications. Specifically, we use a heteroskedastic Gaussian process model to incorporate user trust modelling into Bayesian spatial regression. In particular, by training the model with the reports gathered from the crowd, we are able to estimate the spatial function at any location of interest and also learn the level of trustworthiness of each user. We show that our method outperforms other standard homoskedastic and heteroskedastic Gaussian processes by up to 23% on a crowdsourced radiation dataset collected during the 2011 Fukushima earthquake in Japan. We also show that our method is able to improve the quality of spatial predictions on synthetic data by up to 70% and is robust in settings of up to 30% presence of untrustworthy users within the crowd.

In recent years, researchers have sought to capture the daily life location behaviour of groups of people for exploratory, inference, and predictive purposes. However, development of such approaches has been limited by the requirement of personal semantic labels for locations or social/spatial overlap between individuals in the group. To address this shortcoming, we present a Bayesian model of mobility in populations (i.e., groups without spatial or social interconnections) that is not subject to any of these requirements. The model intelligently shares temporal parameters between people, but keeps the spatial parameters specific to individuals. To illustrate the advantages of population modelling, we apply our model to the difficult problem of overcoming data sparsity in location prediction systems, using the Nokia dataset comprising 38 individuals, and find a factor of 2.4 improvement in location prediction performance against a state-of-the-art model when training on only 20 hours of observations.

We present a system and study of personalized energy-related recommendation. AgentSwitch utilizes electricity usage data collected from users' households over a period of time to realize a range of smart energy-related recommendations on energy tariffs, load detection and usage shifting. The web service is driven by a third party real-time energy tariff API (uSwitch), an energy data store, a set of algorithms for usage prediction, and appliance-level load disaggregation. We present the system design and user evaluation consisting of interviews and interface walkthroughs. We recruited participants from a previous study during which three months of their household's energy use was recorded to evaluate personalized recommendations in AgentSwitch. Our contributions are a) a systems architecture for personalized energy services; and b) findings from the evaluation that reveal challenges in designing energy-related recommender systems. In response to the challenges we formulate design recommendations to mitigate barriers to switching tariffs, to incentivize load shifting, and to automate energy management.

The Shapley value---probably the most important normative payoff division scheme in coalitional games---has recently been advocated as a useful measure of centrality in networks. However, although this approach has a variety of real-world applications (including social and organisational networks, biological networks and communication networks), its computational properties have not been widely studied. To date, the only practicable approach to compute Shapley value-based centrality has been via Monte Carlo simulations which are computationally expensive and not guaranteed to give an exact answer. Against this background, this paper presents the first study of the computational aspects of the Shapley value for network centralities. Specifically, we develop exact analytical formulae for Shapley value-based centrality in both weighted and unweighted networks and develop efficient (polynomial time) and exact algorithms based on them. We empirically evaluate these algorithms on two real-life examples (an infrastructure network representing the topology of the Western States Power Grid and a collaboration network from the field of astrophysics) and demonstrate that they deliver significant speedups over the Monte Carlo approach. For instance, in the case of unweighted networks our algorithms are able to return the exact solution about 1600 times faster than the Monte Carlo approximation, even if we allow for a generous 10% error margin for the latter method.

We develop an online mechanism for the allocation of an expiring resource to a dynamic agent population. Each agent has a non-increasing marginal valuation function for the resource, and an upper limit on the number of units that can be allocated in any period. We propose two versions on a truthful allocation mechanism. Each modifies the decisions of a greedy online assignment algorithm by sometimes cancelling an allocation of resources. One version makes this modification immediately upon an allocation decision while a second waits until the point at which an agent departs the market. Adopting a prior-free framework, we show that the second approach has better worst-case allocative efficiency and is more scalable. On the other hand, the first approach (with immediate cancellation) may be easier in practice because it does not need to reclaim units previously allocated. We consider an application to recharging plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Using data from a real-world trial of PHEVs in the UK, we demonstrate higher system performance than a fixed price system, performance comparable with a standard, but non-truthful scheduling heuristic, and the ability to support 50% more vehicles at the same fuel cost than a simple randomized policy.

In AI research, mechanism design is typically used to allocate tasks and resources to agents holding private information about their values for possible allocations. In this context, optimizing payments within the Groves class has recently received much attention, mostly under the assumption that agent's private information is single-dimensional. Our work tackles this problem in multi-parameter domains. Specifically, we develop a generic technique to look for a best Groves mechanism for any given mechanism design problem. Our method is based on partitioning the spaces of agent values and payment functions into regions, on each of which we are able to define a feasible linear payment function. Under certain geometric conditions on partitions of the two spaces this function is optimal. We illustrate our method by applying it to the problem of allocating heterogeneous items.

The current state-of-the-art algorithm for optimal coalition structure generation is IDP-IP — an algorithm that combines IDP (a dynamic programming algorithm due to Rahwan and Jennings, AAAI'08) with IP (a tree-search algorithm due to Rahwan et al., JAIR'09). In this paper we analyse IDP-IP, highlight its limitations, and then develop a new approach for combining IDP with IP that overcomes these limitations.

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are fast emerging as a suitable means of integrating small and distributed energy resources (DERs), like wind and solar, into the electricity supply network (Grid). VPPs are formed via the aggregation of a large number of such DERs, so that they exhibit the characteristics of a traditional generator in terms of predictability and robustness. In this work, we promote the formation of such "cooperative'' VPPs (CVPPs) using multi-agent technology. In particular, we design a payment mechanism that encourages DERs to join CVPPs with large overall production. Our method is based on strictly proper scoring rules and incentivises the provision of accurate predictions from the CVPPs---and in turn, the member DERs---which aids in the planning of the supply schedule at the Grid. We empirically evaluate our approach using the real-world setting of 16 commercial wind farms in the UK. We show that our mechanism incentivises real DERs to form CVPPs, and outperforms the current state of the art payment mechanism developed for this problem.

Restructuring electricity grids to meet the increased demand caused by the electrification of transport and heating, while making greater use of intermittent renewable energy sources, represents one of the greatest engineering challenges of our day. This modern electricity grid, in which both electricity and information flow in two directions between large numbers of widely distributed suppliers and generators — commonly termed the ‘smart grid’ — represents a radical reengineering of infrastructure which has changed little over the last hundred years. However, the autonomous behaviour expected of the smart grid, its distributed nature, and the existence of multiple stakeholders each with their own incentives and interests, challenges existing engineering approaches. In this challenge paper, we describe why we believe that artificial intelligence, and particularly, the fields of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems are essential for delivering the smart grid as it is envisioned. We present some recent work in this area and describe many of the challenges that still remain.

In budget–limited multi–armed bandit (MAB) problems, thelearner’s actions are costly and constrained by a fixed budget.Consequently, an optimal exploitation policy may not be topull the optimal arm repeatedly, as is the case in other variantsof MAB, but rather to pull the sequence of different arms thatmaximises the agent’s total reward within the budget. Thisdifference from existing MABs means that new approachesto maximising the total reward are required. Given this, wedevelop two pulling policies, namely: (i) KUBE; and (ii)fractional KUBE. Whereas the former provides better performanceup to 40% in our experimental settings, the latteris computationally less expensive. We also prove logarithmicupper bounds for the regret of both policies, and show thatthese bounds are asymptotically optimal (i.e. they only differfrom the best possible regret by a constant factor).

Motivated by the need to better manage energy demand in the home, in this paper we advocate the integration into Ubicomp systems of interactive energy consumption visualisations, that allow users to engage with and understand their consumption data, relating it to concrete activities in their life. To this end, we present the design, implementation, and evaluation of FigureEnergy, a novel interactive visualisation that allows users to annotate and manipulate a graphical representation of their own electricity consumption data, and therefore make sense of their past energy usage and understand when, how, and to what end, some amount of energy was used. To validate our design, we deployed FigureEnergy "in the wild" -- 12 participants installed meters in their homes and used the system for a period of two weeks. The results suggest that the annotation approach is successful overall: by engaging with the data users started to relate energy consumption to activities rather than just to appliances. Moreover, they were able to discover that some appliances consume more than they expected, despite having had prior experience of using other electricity displays.

Location prediction systems that attempt to determine the mobility patterns of individuals in their daily lives have become increasingly common in recent years. Approaches to this prediction task include eigenvalue decomposition [5], non-linear time series analysis of arrival times [10], and variable order Markov models [1]. However, these approaches all assume sufficient sets of training data. For new users, by definition, this data is typically not available, leading to poor predictive performance. Given that mobility is a highly personal behaviour, this represents a significant barrier to entry. Against this background, we present a novel framework to enhance prediction using information about the mobility habits of existing users. At the core of the framework is a hierarchical Bayesian model, a type of probabilistic semantic analysis [7], representing the intuition that the temporal features of the new user's location habits are likely to be similar to those of an existing user in the system. We evaluate this framework on the real life location habits of 38 users in the Nokia Lausanne dataset, showing that accuracy is improved by 16%, relative to the state of the art, when predicting the next location of new users.

We present a methodology for the deployment of the maxsum algorithm, a well known decentralised algorithm for coordinating autonomous agents, for problems related to situational awareness. In these settings, unmanned autonomous vehicles are deployed to collect information about an unknown environment. Our methodology then helps identify the choices that need to be made to apply the algorithm to these problems. Next, we present a case study where the methodology is used to develop a system for disaster management in which a team of unmanned aerial vehicles coordinate to provide the first responders of the area of a disaster with live aerial imagery. To evaluate this system, we deploy it on two unmanned hexacopters in a variety of scenarios. Our tests show that the system performs well when confronted with the dynamism and the heterogeneity of the real world.

We introduce a new technique for coordinating teams of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) when deployed to collect live aerial imagery of the scene of a disaster. We define this problem as one of task assignment where the UAVs dynamically coordinate over tasks representing the imagery collection requests. To measure the quality of the assignment of one or more UAVs to a task, we propose a novel utility function which encompasses several constraints, such as the task's importance and the UAVs' battery capacity so as to maximise performance. We then solve the resulting optimisation problem using a fully asynchronous and decentralised implementation of the max-sum algorithm, a well known message passing algorithm previously used only in simulated domains. Finally, we evaluate our approach both in simulation and on real hardware. First, we empirically evaluate our utility and show that it yields a better trade off between the quantity and quality of completed tasks than similar utilities that do not take all the constraints into account. Second, we deploy it on two hexacopters and assess its practical viability in the real world.

Automated negotiation is widely applied in various domains. However, the development of such systems is a complex knowledge and software engineering task. So, a methodology there will be helpful. Unfortunately, none of existing methodologies can offer sufficient, detailed support for such system development. To remove this limitation, this paper develops a new methodology made up of (1) a generic framework (architectural pattern) for the main task, and (2) a library of modular and reusable design pattern (templates) of subtasks. Thus, it is much easier to build a negotiating agent by assembling these standardized components rather than reinventing the wheel each time. Moreover, because these patterns are identified from a wide variety of existing negotiating agents (especially high impact ones), they can also improve the quality of the final systems developed. In addition, our methodology reveals what types of domain knowledge need to be input into the negotiating agents. This in turn provides a basis for developing techniques to acquire the domain knowledge from human users. This is important because negotiation agents act faithfully on the behalf of their human users and thus the relevant domain knowledge must be acquired from the human users. Finally, our methodology is validated with one high impact system.

We give the analysis of the computational complexity of coalition structure generation over graphs. Given an undirected graph G = (N,E) and a valuation function v : P(N) → R over the subsets of nodes, the problem is to find a partition of N into connected subsets, that maximises the sum of the components’ values. This problem is generally NP–complete; in particular, it is hard for a defined class of valuation functions which are independent of disconnected members—that is, two nodes have no effect on each other’s marginal con- tribution to their vertex separator. Nonetheless, for all such functions we provide bounds on the complexity of coalition structure generation over general and minor–free graphs. Our proof is constructive and yields algorithms for solving corresponding instances of the problem. Furthermore, we derive linear time bounds for graphs of bounded treewidth. However, as we show, the problem remains NP–complete for planar graphs, and hence, for any K_k minor–free graphs where k ≥ 5. Moreover, a 3-SAT problem with m clauses can be represented by a coalition structure generation problem over a planar graph with O(m^2) nodes. Importantly, our hardness result holds for a particular subclass of valuation functions, termed edge sum, where the value of each subset of nodes is simply determined by the sum of given weights of the edges in the induced subgraph.

Self-organizing multi-agent systems provide a suitable paradigm for developing autonomic computing systems that manage themselves. Towards this goal, we demonstrate a robust, decentralized approach for structural adaptation in explicitly modeled problem solving agent organizations. Based on self-organization principles, our method enables the autonomous agents to modify their structural relations to achieve a better allocation of tasks in a simulated task-solving environment. Specifically, the agents reason about when and how to adapt using only their history of interactions as guidance. We empirically show that, in a wide range of closed, open, static, and dynamic scenarios, the performance of organizations using our method is close (70–90%) to that of an idealized centralized allocation method and is considerably better (10–60%) than the current state-of-the-art decentralized approaches.

In this article, we consider the problem faced by a sensor network operator who must infer, in real time, the value of some environmental parameter that is being monitored at discrete points in space and time by a sensor network. We describe a powerful and generic approach built upon an efficient multi-output Gaussian process that facilitates this information acquisition and processing. Our algorithm allows effective inference even with minimal domain knowledge, and we further introduce a formulation of Bayesian Monte Carlo to permit the principled management of the hyperparameters introduced by our flexible models. We demonstrate how our methods can be applied in cases where the data is delayed, intermittently missing, censored, and/or correlated. We validate our approach using data collected from three networks of weather sensors and show that it yields better inference performance than both conventional independent Gaussian processes and the Kalman filter. Finally, we show that our formalism efficiently reuses previous computations by following an online update procedure as new data sequentially arrives, and that this results in a four-fold increase in computational speed in the largest cases considered.

Weighted voting games (WVGs) are an important mechanism for modeling scenarios where a group of agents must reach agreement on some issue over which they have different preferences. However, for such games to be effective, they must be well designed. Thus, a key concern for a mechanism designer is to structure games so that they have certain desirable properties. In this context, two such properties are proper and strong. A game is proper if for every coalition that is winning, its complement is not. A game is strong if for every coalition that is losing, its complement is not. In most cases, a mechanism designer wants games that are both proper and strong. To this end, we first show that the problem of determining whether a game is proper or strong is, in general, np-hard. Then we determine those conditions (that can be evaluated in polynomial time) under which a given WVG is proper and those under which it is strong. Finally, for the general np-hard case, we discuss two different approaches for overcoming the complexity: a deterministic approximation scheme and a randomized approximation method.

We introduce a novel distributed algorithm for multi-agent task allocation problems where the sets of tasks and agents constantly change over time. We build on an existing anytime algorithm (fast-max-sum), and give it significant new capa- bilities: namely, an online pruning procedure that simplifies the problem, and a branch-and-bound technique that reduces the search space. This allows us to scale to problems with hundreds of tasks and agents. We empirically evaluate our algorithm against established benchmarks and find that, even in such large environments, a solution is found up to 31% faster, and with up to 23% more utility, than state-of-the-art approximation algorithms. In addition, our algorithm sends up to 30% fewer messages than current approaches when the set of agents or tasks changes.

The conventional model of coalition formation considers every possible subset of agents as a potential coalition. However, in many real-world applications, there are inherent constraints on feasible coalitions: for instance, certain agents may be prohibited from being in the same coalition, or the coalition structure may be required to consist of coalitions of the same size. In this paper, we present the first systematic study of constrained coalition formation (CCF). We propose a general framework for this problem, and identify an important class of CCF settings, where the constraints specify which groups of agents should/should not work together. We describe a procedure that transforms such constraints into a structured input that allows coalition formation algorithms to identify, without any redundant computations, all the feasible coalitions. We then use this procedure to develop an algorithm for generating an optimal (welfare-maximizing) constrained coalition structure, and show that it outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches by several orders of magnitude.

In this paper, we propose a novel decentralised control mechanism to manage micro-storage in the smart grid. Our approach uses an adaptive pricing scheme that energy suppliers apply to home smart agents controlling micro-storage devices. In particular, we prove that the interaction between a supplier using our pricing scheme and the actions of selfish micro-storage agents forms a globally stable feedback loop that converges to an efficient equilibrium. We further propose a market strategy that allows the supplier to reduce wholesale purchasing costs without increasing the uncertainty and variance for its aggregate consumer demand. Moreover, we empirically evaluate our mechanism (based on the UK grid data) and show that it yields savings of up to 16% in energy cost for consumers using storage devices with average capacity 10 kWh. Furthermore, we show that it is robust against extreme system changes.

Ontologies that evolve through use to support new domain tasks can grow extremely large. Moreover, large ontologies require more resources to use and have slower response times than small ones. To help address this problem, we present an on-line se-mantic forgetting algorithm that removes ontology fragments containing infrequently used or cheap to relearn concepts. We situate our algorithm in an extension of the widely used RoboCup Rescue plat-form, which provides simulated tasks to agents. We show that our agents send fewer messages and com-plete more tasks, and thus achieve a greater degree of success, than other state-of-the-art approaches. 1

Coalition formation is a fundamental research topic in multi-agent systems. In this context, while it is desirable to generate a coalition structure that maximizes the sum of the values of the coalitions, the space of possible solutions is often too large to allow exhaustive search. Thus, a fundamental open question in this area is the following: Can we search through only a subset of coalition structures, and be guaranteed to find a solution that is within a desirable bound (beta) from optimum? If so, what is the minimum such subset? To date, the above question has only been partially answered by Sandholm et al. in their seminal work on anytime coalition structure generation [Sandholm et al., 1999]. More specifically, they identified minimum subsets to be searched for two particular bounds: β = n and β = [n/2]. Nevertheless, the question remained open for other values of β. In this paper, we provide the complete answer to this question.

In multi-issue automated negotiation against unknown opponents, a key part of effective negotiation is the choice of concession strategy. In this paper, we develop a principled concession strategy, based on Gaussian processes predicting the opponent's future behaviour. We then use this to set the agent's concession rate dynamically during a single negotiation session. We analyse the performance of our strategy and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art negotiating agents from the 2010 Automated Negotiating Agents Competition, in both a tournament setting and in self-play, across a variety of negotiation domains.

In this paper, we present a novel decentralised management technique that allows electricity micro-storage devices, deployed within individual homes as part of a smart electricity grid, to converge to profitable and efficient behaviours. Specifically, we propose the use of software agents, residing on the users' smart meters, to automate and optimise the charging cycle of micro-storage devices in the home to minimise its costs, and we present a study of both the theoretical underpinnings and the implications of a practical solution, of using software agents for such micro-storage management. First, by formalising the strategic choice each agent makes in deciding when to charge its battery, we develop a game-theoretic framework within which we can analyse the competitive equilibria of an electricity grid populated by such agents and hence predict the best consumption profile for that population given their battery properties and individual load profiles. Our framework also allows us to compute theoretical bounds on the amount of storage that will be adopted by the population. Second, to analyse the practical implications of micro-storage deployments in the grid, we present a novel algorithm that each agent can use to optimise its battery storage profile in order to minimise its owner's costs. This algorithm uses a learning strategy that allows it to adapt as the price of electricity changes in real-time, and we show that the adoption of these strategies results in the system converging to the theoretical equilibria. Finally, we empirically evaluate the adoption of our micro-storage management technique within a complex setting, based on the UK electricity market, where agents may have widely varying load profiles, battery types, and learning rates. In this case, our approach yields savings of up to 14% in energy cost for an average consumer using a storage device with a capacity of less than 4.5 kWh and up to a 7% reduction in carbon emissions resulting from electricity generation (with only domestic consumers adopting micro-storage and, commercial and industrial consumers not changing their demand). Moreover, corroborating our theoretical bound, an equilibrium is shown to exist where no more than 48% of households would wish to own storage devices and where social welfare would also be improved (yielding overall annual savings of nearly £1.5B).

With dwindling nonrenewable energy reserves and the adverse effects of climate change, the development of the smart electricity grid is seen as key to solving global energy security issues and to reducing carbon emissions. In this respect, there is a growing need to integrate renewable (or green) energy sources in the grid. However, the intermittency of these energy sources requires that demand must also be made more responsive to changes in supply, and a number of smart grid technologies are being developed, such as high-capacity batteries and smart meters for the home, to enable consumers to be more responsive to conditions on the grid in real time. Traditional solutions based on these technologies, however, tend to ignore the fact that individual consumers will behave in such a way that best satisfies their own preferences to use or store energy (as opposed to that of the supplier or the grid operator). Hence, in practice, it is unclear how these solutions will cope with large numbers of consumers using their devices in this way. Against this background, in this article, we develop novel control mechanisms based on the use of autonomous agents to better incorporate consumer preferences in managing demand. These agents, residing on consumers' smart meters, can both communicate with the grid and optimize their owner's energy consumption to satisfy their preferences. More specifically, we provide a novel control mechanism that models and controls a system comprising of a green energy supplier operating within the grid and a number of individual homes (each possibly owning a storage device). This control mechanism is based on the concept of homeostasis whereby control signals are sent to individual components of a system, based on their continuous feedback, in order to change their state so that the system may reach a stable equilibrium. Thus, we define a new carbon-based pricing mechanism for this green energy supplier that takes advantage of carbon-intensity signals available on the Internet in order to provide real-time pricing. The pricing scheme is designed in such a way that it can be readily implemented using existing communication technologies and is easily understandable by consumers. Building upon this, we develop new control signals that the supplier can use to incentivize agents to shift demand (using their storage device) to times when green energy is available. Moreover, we show how these signals can be adapted according to changes in supply and to various degrees of penetration of storage in the system. We empirically evaluate our system and show that, when all homes are equipped with storage devices, the supplier can significantly reduce its reliance on other carbon-emitting power sources to cater for its own shortfalls. By so doing, the supplier reduces the carbon emission of the system by up to 25% while the consumer reduces its costs by up to 14.5%. Finally, we demonstrate that our homeostatic control mechanism is not sensitive to small prediction errors and the supplier is incentivized to accurately predict its green production to minimize costs.

In this paper, we develop a novel algorithm that allows service consumers to execute business processes (or workflows) of interdependent services in a dependable manner within tight time-constraints. In particular, we consider large interorganizational service-oriented systems, where services are offered by external organizations that demand financial remuneration and where their use has to be negotiated in advance using explicit service-level agreements (as is common in Grids and cloud computing). Here, different providers often offer the same type of service at varying levels of quality and price. Furthermore, some providers may be less trustworthy than others, possibly failing to meet their agreements. To control this unreliability and ensure end-to-end dependability while maximizing the profit obtained from completing a business process, our algorithm automatically selects the most suitable providers. Moreover, unlike existing work, it reasons about the dependability properties of a workflow, and it controls these by using service redundancy for critical tasks and by planning for contingencies. Finally, our algorithm reserves services for only parts of its workflow at any time, in order to retain flexibility when failures occur. We show empirically that our algorithm consistently outperforms existing approaches, achieving up to a 35-fold increase in profit and successfully completing most workflows, even when the majority of providers fail.

We develop an efficient algorithm for computing pure strategy Nash equilibria that satisfy various criteria (such as the utilitarian or Nash-Bernoulli social welfare functions) in games with sparse interaction structure. Our algorithm, called Valued Nash Propagation (VNP), integrates the optimisation problem of maximising a criterion with the constraint satisfaction problem of finding a game's equilibria to construct a criterion that defines a c-semiring. Given a suitably compact game structure, this criterion can be efficiently optimised using message-passing. To this end, we first show that VNP is complete in games whose interaction structure forms a hypertree. Then, we go on to provide theoretic and empirical results justifying its use on games with arbitrary structure; in particular, we show that it computes the optimum >82% of the time and otherwise selects an equilibrium that is always within 2% of the optimum on average.

We introduce the budget–limited multi–armed bandit (MAB), which captures situations where a learner’s actions are costly and constrained by a fixed budget that is incommensurable with the rewards earned from the bandit machine, and then describe a first algorithm for solving it. Since the learner has a budget, the problem’s duration is finite. Consequently an optimal exploitation policy is not to pull the optimal arm repeatedly, but to pull the combination of arms that maximises the agent’s total reward within the budget. As such, the rewards for all arms must be estimated, because any of them may appear in the optimal combination. This difference from existing MABs means that new approaches to maximising the total reward are required. To this end, we propose an epsilon–first algorithm, in which the first epsilon of the budget is used solely to learn the arms’ rewards (exploration), while the remaining 1 − epsilon is used to maximise the received reward based on those estimates (exploitation). We derive bounds on the algorithm’s loss for generic and uniform exploration methods, and compare its performance with traditional MAB algorithms under various distributions of rewards and costs, showing that it outperforms the others by up to 50%.

Multi-agent decision problems, in which independent agents have to agree on a joint plan of action or allocation of resources, are central to AI. In such situations, agents' individual preferences over available alternatives may vary, and they may try to reconcile these differences by voting. Based on the fact that agents may have incentives to vote strategically and misreport their real preferences, a number of recent papers have explored different possibilities for avoiding or eliminating such manipulations. In contrast to most prior work, this paper focuses on convergence of strategic behavior to a decision from which no voter will want to deviate. We consider scenarios where voters cannot coordinate their actions, but are allowed to change their vote after observing the current outcome. We focus on the Plurality voting rule, and study the conditions under which this iterative game is guaranteed to converge to a Nash equilibrium (i.e., to a decision that is stable against further unilateral manipulations). We show for the first time how convergence depends on the exact attributes of the game, such as the tie-breaking scheme, and on assumptions regarding agents' weights and strategies.

We present an on-line decentralised algorithm for coordinating mobile sensors for a broad class of information gathering tasks. These sensors can be deployed in unknown and possibly hostile environments, where uncertainty and dynamism are endemic. Such environments are common in the areas of disaster response and military surveillance. Our coordination approach itself is based on work by Stranders et al. (2009), that uses the max-sum algorithm to coordinate mobile sensors for monitoring spatial phenomena. In particular, we generalise and extend their approach to any domain where measurements can be valued. Also, we introduce a clustering approach that allows sensors to negotiate over paths to the most relevant locations, as opposed to a set of fixed directions, which results in a significantly improved performance. We demonstrate our algorithm by applying it to two challenging and distinct information gathering tasks. In the first–pursuit-evasion (PE)–sensors need to capture a target whose movement might be unknown. In the second–patrolling (P)–sensors need to minimise loss from intrusions that occur within their environment. In doing so, we obtain the first decentralised coordination algorithms for these domains. Finally, in each domain, we empirically evaluate our approach in a simulated environment, and show that it outperforms two state of the art greedy algorithms by 30% (PE) and 44% (P), and an existing approach based on the Travelling Salesman Problem by 52% (PE) and 30% (P).

In this paper we propose a novel approach to represent coalitional games, called a Coalition-Flow Network (CF-NET), that builds upon a generalization of the network flow literature. Specifically, this representation is based on our observation that the coalition formation process can be viewed as the problem of directing the flow through a network where every edge has certain capacity constraints.

In this paper we introduce a new option pricing mechanism for reducing the exposure problem encountered by bidding agents with complementary valuations when participating in sequential, second-price auction markets. Existing option pricing models have two main drawbacks: they either apply fixed exercise prices, which may deter bidders with low valuations, thereby decreasing allocative efficiency, or options are offered for free, in which case bidders are less likely to exercise them, thereby reducing seller revenues. The proposed mechanism involving flexibly priced options addresses these problems by calculating the exercise price as well as the option price based on the bids received during an auction. For this new model, which extends and encompasses all the previous models examined, we derive the optimal strategies for a bidding agent with complementary preferences. Finally, we use these strategies to evaluate the proposed option mechanism through Monte-Carlo simutions, and compare it to existing mechanisms, both in terms of the seller revenue and the social welfare. We show that our new mechanism achieves higher market efficiency compared to having no options and free options, while achieving higher revenues for the seller than any existing option mechanism.

In this paper, we analyse how traders select marketplaces and bid in a setting with multiple competing marketplaces. Specifically, we use a fictitious play algorithm to analyse the traders' equilibrium strategies for market selection and bidding when their types are continuous. To achieve this, we first analyse traders' equilibrium bidding strategies in a single marketplace and find that they shade their offers in equilibrium and the degree to which they do this depends on the amount and types of fees that are charged by the marketplace. Building on this, we then analyse equilibrium strategies for traders in competing marketplaces in two particular cases. In the first, we assume that traders can only select one marketplace at a time. For this, we show that, in equilibrium, all traders who choose one of the marketplaces eventually converge to the same one. In the second case, we allow buyers to participate in multiple marketplaces at a time, while sellers can only select one marketplace. For this, we show that sellers eventually distribute in different marketplaces in equilibrium and that buyers shade less and sellers shade more in the equilibrium bidding strategy (since sellers have more market power than buyers).

Many sequential decision making problems require an agent to balance exploration and exploitation to maximise long-term reward. Existing policies that address this tradeoff typically have parameters that are set a priori to control the amount of exploration. In finite-time problems, the optimal values of these parameters are highly dependent on the problem faced. In this paper, we propose adapting the amount of exploration performed on-line, as information is gathered by the agent. To this end we introduce a novel algorithm, e-ADAPT, which has no free parameters. The algorithm adapts as it plays and sequentially chooses whether to explore or exploit, driven by the amount of uncertainty in the system. We provide simulation results for the one armed bandit with covariates problem, which demonstrate the effectiveness of e-ADAPT to correctly control the amount of exploration in finite-time problems and yield rewards that are close to optimally tuned off-line policies. Furthermore, we show that e-ADAPT is robust to a high-dimensional covariate, as well as misspecified models. Finally, we describe how our methods could be extended to other sequential decision making problems, such as dynamic bandit problems with changing reward structures.

This paper reports on a novel decentralized technique for planning agent schedules in dynamic task allocation problems. Specifically, we use a stochastic game formulation of these problems in which tasks have varying hard deadlines and processing requirements. We then introduce a new technique for approximating this game using a series of static potential games, before detailing a decentralized method for solving the approximating games that uses the distributed stochastic algorithm. Finally, we discuss an implementation of our approach to a task allocation problem in the RoboCup Rescue disaster management simulator. The results show that our technique performs comparably to a centralized task scheduler (within 6% on average), and also, unlike its centralized counterpart, it is robust to restrictions on the agents’ communication and observation ranges.

This special issue is devoted to papers that have emerged from the ALADDIN (Autonomous Learning Agents for Decentralized Data and Information Networks) project (http://www.aladdinproject.org/). ALADDIN is concerned with developing techniques, methods and architectures for modelling, designing and building decentralized systems that can bring together information from a variety of heterogeneous sources in order to take informed actions in a timely manner. To do this, we have taken a total systems view on information and knowledge fusion and considered the feedback that exists between sensing, decision making and acting in such systems. Moreover, we have tackled these objectives in environments in which: control is distributed; uncertainty, ambiguity, imprecision and bias are endemic; multiple stakeholders with different aims and objectives are present; and resources are limited and continually vary during the systems operation.

The efficient management of the limited energy resources of a wireless visual sensor network is central to its successful operation. Within this context, this article focuses on the adaptive sampling, forwarding and routing actions of each node in order to maximize the information value of the data collected. These actions are inter-related in a multi-hop routing scenario because each node's energy consumption must be optimally allocated between sampling and transmitting its own data, receiving and forwarding the data of other nodes, and routing any data. Thus, we develop two optimal agent-based decentralized algorithms to solve this distributed constraint optimization problem. The first assumes that the route by which data is forwarded to the base station is fixed, and then calculates the optimal sampling, transmitting and forwarding actions that each node should perform. The second assumes flexible routing, and makes optimal decisions regarding both the integration of actions that each node should choose and also the route by which the data should be forwarded to the base station. The two algorithms represent a trade-off in optimality, communication cost and processing time. In an empirical evaluation on sensor networks (whose underlying communication networks exhibit loops), we show that the algorithm with flexible routing is able to deliver approximately twice the quantity of information to the base station compared with the algorithm using fixed routing (where an arbitrary choice of route is made). However, this gain comes at a considerable communication and computational cost (increasing both by a factor of 100 times). Thus, while the algorithm with flexible routing is suitable for networks with a small number of nodes, it scales poorly, and as the size of the network increases, the algorithm with fixed routing is favoured.

Emergency responders are faced with a number of significant challenges when managing major disasters. First, the number of rescue tasks posed is usually larger than the number of responders (or agents) and the resources available to them. Second, each task is likely to require a different level of effort in order to be completed by its deadline. Third, new tasks may continually appear or disappear from the environment, thus requiring the responders to quickly recompute their allocation of resources. Fourth, forming teams or coalitions of multiple agents from different agencies is vital since no single agency will have all the resources needed to save victims, unblock roads and extinguish the fires which might erupt in the disaster space. Given this, coalitions have to be efficiently selected and scheduled to work across the disaster space so as to maximize the number of lives and the portion of the infrastructure saved. In particular, it is important that the selection of such coalitions should be performed in a decentralized fashion in order to avoid a single point of failure in the system. Moreover, it is critical that responders communicate only locally given they are likely to have limited battery power or minimal access to long-range communication devices. Against this background, we provide a novel decentralized solution to the coalition formation process that pervades disaster management. More specifically, we model the emergency management scenario defined in the RoboCup Rescue disaster simulation platform as a coalition formation with spatial and temporal constraints (CFST) problem where agents form coalitions to complete tasks, each with different demands. To design a decentralized algorithm for CFST, we formulate it as a distributed constraint optimization problem and show how to solve it using the state-of-the-art Max-Sum algorithm that provides a completely decentralized message-passing solution. We then provide a novel algorithm (F-Max-Sum) that avoids sending redundant messages and efficiently adapts to changes in the environment. In empirical evaluations, our algorithm is shown to generate better solutions than other decentralized algorithms used for this problem.

In the usual models of cooperative game theory, the outcome of a coalition formation process is either the grand coalition or a coalition structure that consists of disjoint coalitions. However, in many domains where coalitions are associated with tasks, an agent may be involved in executing more than one task, and thus may distribute his resources among several coalitions. To tackle such scenarios, we introduce a model for cooperative games with overlapping coalitions—or overlapping coalition formation (OCF) games. We then explore the issue of stability in this setting. In particular, we introduce a notion of the core, which generalizes the corresponding notion in the traditional (non-overlapping) scenario. Then, under some quite general conditions, we characterize the elements of the core, and show that any element of the core maximizes the social welfare. We also introduce a concept of balancedness for overlapping coalitional games, and use it to characterize coalition structures that can be extended to elements of the core. Finally, we generalize the notion of convexity to our setting, and show that under some natural assumptions convex games have a non-empty core. Moreover, we introduce two alternative notions of stability in OCF that allow a wider range of deviations, and explore the relationships among the corresponding definitions of the core, as well as the classic (non-overlapping) core and the Aubin core. We illustrate the general properties of the three cores, and also study them from a computational perspective, thus obtaining additional insights into their fundamental structure.

This article reports on the development of a utility-based mechanism for managing sensing and communication in cooperative multisensor networks. The specific application on which we illustrate our mechanism is that of GlacsWeb. This is a deployed system that uses battery-powered sensors to collect environmental data related to glaciers which it transmits back to a base station so that it can be made available world-wide to researchers. In this context, we first develop a sensing protocol in which each sensor locally adjusts its sensing rate based on the value of the data it believes it will observe. The sensors employ a Bayesian linear model to decide their sampling rate and exploit the properties of the Kullback-Leibler divergence to place an appropriate value on the data. Then, we detail a communication protocol that finds optimal routes for relaying this data back to the base station based on the cost of communicating it (derived from the opportunity cost of using the battery power for relaying data). Finally, we empirically evaluate our protocol by examining the impact on efficiency of a static network topology, a dynamic network topology, the size of the network, the degree of dynamism of the environment, and the mobility of the nodes. In so doing, we demonstrate that the efficiency gains of our new protocol, over the currently implemented method over a 6 month period, are 78%, 133%, 100%, and 93%, respectively. Furthermore, we show that our system performs at 65%, 70%, 63%, and 70% of the theoretical optimal, respectively, despite being a distributed protocol that operates with incomplete knowledge of the environment.

We consider the issue of representing coalitional games in multi-agent systems with externalities (i.e., in systems where the performance of one coalition may be affected by other co-existing coalitions). In addition to the conventional partition function game representation (PFG), we propose a number of new representations based on a new notion of externalities. In contrast to conventional game theory, our new concept is not related to the process by which the coalitions are formed, but rather to the effect that each coalition may have on the entire system and vice versa. We show that the new representations are fully expressive and, for many classes of games, more concise than the conventional PFG. Building upon these new representations, we propose a number of approaches to solve the coalition structure generation problem in systems with externalities. We show that, if externalities are characterised by various degrees of regularity, the new representations allow us to adapt coalition structure generation algorithms that were originally designed for domains with no externalities, so that they can be used when externalities are present. Finally, building upon Rahwan et al. [16] and Michalak et al. [9], we present a unified method to solve the coalition structure generation problem in any system, with or without externalities, provided sufficient information is available.

Coalition formation is a fundamental type of interaction that involves the creation of coherent groupings of distinct, autonomous, agents in order to efficiently achieve their individual or collective goals. Forming effective coalitions is a major research challenge in the field of multi-agent systems. Central to this endeavour is the problem of determining which of the many possible coalitions to form in order to achieve some goal. This usually requires calculating a value for every possible coalition, known as the coalition value, which indicates how beneficial that coalition would be if it was formed. Once these values are calculated, the agents usually need to find a combination of coalitions, in which every agent belongs to exactly one coalition, and by which the overall outcome of the system is maximized. However, this coalition structure generation problem is extremely challenging due to the number of possible solutions that need to be examined, which grows exponentially with the number of agents involved. To date, therefore, many algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem using different techniques ranging from dynamic programming, to integer programming, to stochastic search all of which suffer from major limitations relating to execution time, solution quality, and memory requirements. With this in mind, we develop an anytime algorithm to solve the coalition structure generation problem. Specifically, the algorithm uses a novel representation of the search space, which partitions the space of possible solutions into sub-spaces such that it is possible to compute upper and lower bounds on the values of the best coalition structures in them. These bounds are then used to identify the sub-spaces that have no potential of containing the optimal solution so that they can be pruned. The algorithm, then, searches through the remaining sub-spaces very efficiently using a branch-and-bound technique to avoid examining all the solutions within the searched subspace(s). In this setting, we prove that our algorithm enumerates all coalition structures efficiently by avoiding redundant and invalid solutions automatically. Moreover, in order to effectively test our algorithm we develop a new type of input distribution which allows us to generate more reliable benchmarks compared to the input distributions previously used in the field. Given this new distribution, we show that for 27 agents our algorithm is able to find solutions that are optimal in 0.175% of the time required by the fastest available algorithm in the literature. The algorithm is anytime, and if interrupted before it would have normally terminated, it can still provide a solution that is guaranteed to be within a bound from the optimal one. Moreover, the guarantees we provide on the quality of the solution are significantly better than those provided by the previous state of the art algorithms designed for this purpose. For example, for the worst case distribution given 25 agents, our algorithm is able to find a 90% efficient solution in around 10% of time it takes to find the optimal solution.

Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanisms are often used to allocate tasks to selfish and rational agents. VCG mechanisms are incentive compatible, direct mechanisms that are efficient (i.e., maximise social utility) and individually rational (i.e., agents prefer to join rather than opt out). However, an important assumption of these mechanisms is that the agents will "always" successfully complete their allocated tasks. Clearly, this assumption is unrealistic in many real-world applications, where agents can, and often do, fail in their endeavours. Moreover, whether an agent is deemed to have failed may be perceived differently by different agents. Such subjective perceptions about an agent's probability of succeeding at a given task are often captured and reasoned about using the notion of "trust". Given this background, in this paper we investigate the design of novel mechanisms that take into account the trust between agents when allocating tasks. Specifically, we develop a new class of mechanisms, called "trust-based mechanisms", that can take into account multiple subjective measures of the probability of an agent succeeding at a given task and produce allocations that maximise social utility, whilst ensuring that no agent obtains a negative utility. We then show that such mechanisms pose a challenging new combinatorial optimisation problem (that is NP-complete), devise a novel representation for solving the problem, and develop an effective integer programming solution (that can solve instances with about 2x10^5 possible allocations in 40 seconds).

Web services promise to revolutionize the way computational resources and business processes are offered and invoked in open, distributed systems, such as the Internet. These services are described using machine-readable metadata, which enables consumer applications to automatically discover and provision suitable services for their workflows at run-time. However, current approaches have typically assumed service descriptions are accurate and deterministic, and so have neglected to account for the fact that services in these open systems are inherently unreliable and uncertain. Specifically, network failures, software bugs and competition for services may regularly lead to execution delays or even service failures. To address this problem, the process of provisioning services needs to be performed in a more flexible manner than has so far been considered, in order to proactively deal with failures and to recover workflows that have partially failed. To this end, we devise and present a heuristic strategy that varies the provisioning of services according to their predicted performance. Using simulation, we then benchmark our algorithm and show that it leads to a 700% improvement in average utility, while successfully completing up to eight times as many workflows as approaches that do not consider service failures.

The efficient allocation of the limited energy resources of a wireless sensor network in a way that maximizes the information value of the data collected is a significant research challenge. Within this context, this article concentrates on adaptive sampling as a means of focusing a sensor's energy consumption on obtaining the most important data. Specifically, we develop a principled information metric based upon Fisher information and Gaussian process regression that allows the information content of a sensor's observations to be expressed. We then use this metric to derive three novel decentralized control algorithms for information-based adaptive sampling which represent a trade-off in computational cost and optimality. These algorithms are evaluated in the context of a deployed sensor network in the domain of flood monitoring. The most computationally efficient of the three is shown to increase the value of information gathered by approximately 83%, 27%, and 8% per day compared to benchmarks that sample in a naïve nonadaptive manner, in a uniform nonadaptive manner, and using a state-of-the-art adaptive sampling heuristic (USAC) correspondingly. Moreover, our algorithm collects information whose total value is approximately 75% of the optimal solution (which requires an exponential, and thus impractical, amount of time to compute).

Weighted voting games are a popular model of collaboration in multiagent systems. In such games, each agent has a weight (intuitively corresponding to resources he can contribute), and a coalition of agents wins if its total weight meets or exceeds a given threshold. Even though coalitional stability in such games is important, existing research has nonetheless only considered the stability of the grand coalition. In this paper, we introduce a model for weighted voting games with coalition structures. This is a natural extension in the context of multiagent systems, as several groups of agents may be simultaneously at work, each serving a different task. We then proceed to study stability in this context. First, we define the CS-core, a notion of the core for such settings, discuss its non-emptiness, and relate it to the traditional notion of the core in weighted voting games. We then investigate its computational properties. We show that, in contrast with the traditional setting, it is computationally hard to decide whether a game has a non-empty CS-core, or whether a given outcome is in the CS-core. However, we then provide an efficient algorithm that verifies whether an outcome is in the CS-core if all weights are small (polynomially bounded). Finally, we also suggest heuristic algorithms for checking the non-emptiness of the CS-core.

This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that motivates selfish rational agents to make a costly probabilistic estimate or forecast of a specified precision and report it truthfully to a centre. Our mechanism is applied in a setting where the centre is faced with multiple agents, and has no knowledge about their costs. Thus, in the first stage of the mechanism, the centre uses a reverse second price auction to allocate the estimation task to the agent who reveals the lowest cost. While, in the second stage, the centre issues a payment based on a strictly proper scoring rule. When taken together, the two stages motivate agents to reveal their true costs, and then to truthfully reveal their estimate. We prove that this mechanism is incentive compatible and individually rational, and then present empirical results comparing the performance of the well known quadratic, spherical and logarithmic scoring rules. We show that the quadratic and the logarithmic rules result in the centre making the highest and the lowest expected payment to agents respectively. At the same time, however, the payments of the latter rule are unbounded, and thus the spherical rule proves to be the best candidate in this setting.

In this paper we describe the IAMwildCAT agent, designed for the TAC Market Design game which is part of the International Trading Agent Competition. The objective of an agent in this competition is to effectively manage and operate a market that attracts traders to compete for resources in it. This market, in turn, competes against markets operated by other competition entrants and the aim is to maximise the market and profit share of the agent, as well as its transaction success rate. To do this, the agent needs to continually monitor and adapt, in response to the competing marketplaces, the rules it uses to accept offers, clear the market, price the transactions and charge the traders. Given this context, this paper details IAMwildCAT's strategic behaviour and describes the wide techniques we developed to operationalise this. Finally, we empirically analyse our agent in different environments, including the 2007 competition where it ranked first.

In this paper, we describe a novel, computationally efficient algorithm that facilitates the autonomous acquisition of readings from sensor networks (deciding when and which sensor to acquire readings from at any time), and which can, with minimal domain knowledge, perform a range of information processing tasks including modelling the accuracy of the sensor readings, predicting the value of missing sensor readings, and predicting how the monitored environmental variables will evolve into the future. Our motivating scenario is the need to provide situational awareness support to first responders at the scene of a large scale incident, and to this end, we describe a novel iterative formulation of a multi-output Gaussian process that can build and exploit a probabilistic model of the environmental variables being measured (including the correlations and delays that exist between them). We validate our approach using data collected from a network of weather sensors located on the south coast of England.

In this paper, we describe an information agent, that resides on a mobile computer or personal digital assistant (PDA), that can autonomously acquire sensor readings from pervasive sensor networks (deciding when and which sensor to acquire readings from at any time). Moreover, it can perform a range of information processing tasks including modelling the accuracy of the sensor readings, predicting the value of missing sensor readings, and predicting how the monitored environmental parameters will evolve into the future. Our motivating scenario is the need to provide situational awareness support to first responders at the scene of a large scale incident, and we describe how we use an iterative formulation of a multi-output Gaussian process to build a probabilistic model of the environmental parameters being measured by local sensors, and the correlations and delays that exist between them. We validate our approach using data collected from a network of weather sensors located on the south coast of England.

We derive optimal strategies for a bidding agent that participates in multiple, simultaneous second-price auctions with perfect substitutes. We prove that, if everyone else bids locally in a single auction, the global bidder should always place non-zero bids in all available auctions, provided there are no budget constraints. With a budget, however, the optimal strategy is to bid locally if this budget is equal or less than the valuation. Furthermore, for a wide range of valuation distributions, we prove that the problem of finding the optimal bids reduces to two dimensions if all auctions are identical. Finally, we address markets with both sequential and simultaneous auctions, non-identical auctions, and the allocative efficiency of the market.

In this paper, we elucidate the equivalence between inference in game theory and machine learning. Our aim in so doing is to establish an equivalent vocabulary between the two domains so as to facilitate developments at the intersection of both fields, and as proof of the usefulness of this approach, we use recent developments in each field to make useful improvements to the other. More specifically, we consider the analogies between smooth best responses in fictitious play and Bayesian inference methods. Initially, we use these insights to develop and demonstrate an improved algorithm for learning in games based on probabilistic moderation. That is, by integrating over the distribution of opponent strategies (a Bayesian approach within machine learning) rather than taking a simple empirical average (the approach used in standard fictitious play) we derive a novel moderated fictitious play algorithm and show that it is more likely than standard fictitious play to converge to a payoff-dominant but risk-dominated Nash equilibrium in a simple coordination game. Furthermore we consider the converse case, and show how insights from game theory can be used to derive two improved mean field variational learning algorithms. We first show that the standard update rule of mean field variational learning is analogous to a Cournot adjustment within game theory. By analogy with fictitious play, we then suggest an improved update rule, and show that this results in fictitious variational play, an improved mean field variational learning algorithm that exhibits better convergence in highly or strongly connected graphical models. Second, we use a recent advance in fictitious play, namely dynamic fictitious play, to derive a derivative action variational learning algorithm, that exhibits superior convergence properties on a canonical machine learning problem (clustering a mixture distribution).

The design and evaluation of agents handling automated negotiations on behalf of their human or corporate owners is a quite challenging research field. This paper proposes to enhance such agents with learning techniques, in order to achieve more prof

The future digital battlespace will be a fast-paced and frenetic environment that stresses information communication technology systems to the limit. The challenges are most acute in the tactical and operational domains where bandwidth is severely limited, security of information is paramount, the network is under physical and cyber attack and administrative support is minimal. Hyperion is a cluster of research projects designed to provide an automated and adaptive information management capability embedded in defence networks. The overall system architecture is designed to improve the situational awareness of field commanders by providing the ability to fuse and compose information services in real time. The key technologies adopted to enable this include: autonomous software agents, self-organizing middleware, a smart data filtering system and a 3-D battlespace simulation environment. This paper reviews some of the specific techniques under development within the Hyperion sub-projects and the results achieved to date.

This article considers a canonical auction protocol that forms the basis of nearly all current online auctions. Such discrete bid auctions require that the bidders submit bids at predetermined discrete bid levels, and thus, there exists a minimal increment by which the bid price may be raised. In contrast, the academic literature of optimal auction design deals almost solely with continuous bid auctions. As a result, there is little practical guidance as to how an auctioneer, seeking to maximize its revenue, should determine the number and value of these discrete bid levels, and it is this omission that is addressed here. To this end, a model of an ascending price English auction with discrete bid levels is considered. An expression for the expected revenue of this auction is derived and used to determine numerical and analytical solutions for the optimal bid levels in the case of uniform and exponential bidder's valuation distributions. Finally, in order to develop an intuitive understanding of how these optimal bid levels are distributed, the limiting case where the number of discrete bid levels is large is considered, and an analytical expression for their distribution is derived.

This paper reports on the design and comparison of two economically inspired mechanisms for task allocation in environments where sellers have finite production capacities and a cost structure composed of a fixed overhead cost and a constant marginal cost. Such mechanisms are required when a system consists of multiple self-interested stakeholders that each possess private information that is relevant to solving a systemwide problem. Against this background, we first develop a computationally tractable centralized mechanism that finds the set of producers that have the lowest total cost in providing a certain demand (i.e., it is efficient). We achieve this by extending the standard Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism to allow for multiattribute bids and by introducing a novel penalty scheme such that producers are incentivized to truthfully report their capacities and their costs. Furthermore, our extended mechanism is able to handle sellers' uncertainty about their production capacity and ensures that individual agents find it profitable to participate in the mechanism. However, since this first mechanism is centralized, we also develop a complementary decentralized mechanism based around the continuous double auction. Again, because of the characteristics of our domain, we need to extend the standard form of this protocol by introducing a novel clearing rule based around an order book. With this modified protocol, we empirically demonstrate (with simple trading strategies) that the mechanism achieves high efficiency. In particular, despite this simplicity, the traders can still derive a profit from the market which makes our mechanism attractive since these results are a likely lower bound on their expected returns

We present a mathematical model of the eBay auction protocol and perform a detailed analysis of the effects that the eBay proxy bidding system and the minimum bid increment have on the auction properties. We first consider the revenue of the auction, and we show analytically that when two bidders with independent private valuations use the eBay proxy bidding system there exists an optimal value for the minimum bid increment at which the auctioneer's revenue is maximized. We then consider the sequential way in which bids are placed within the auction, and we show analytically that independent of assumptions regarding the bidders' valuation distribution or bidding strategy the number of visible bids placed is related to the logarithm of the number of potential bidders. Thus, in many cases, it is only a minority of the potential bidders that are able to submit bids and are visible in the auction bid history (despite the fact that the other hidden bidders are still effectively competing for the item). Furthermore, we show through simulation that the minimum bid increment also introduces an inefficiency to the auction, whereby a bidder who enters the auction late may find that its valuation is insufficient to allow them to advance the current bid by the minimum bid increment despite them actually having the highest valuation for the item. Finally, we use these results to consider appropriate strategies for bidders within real world eBay auctions. We show that while last-minute bidding (sniping) is an effective strategy against bidders engaging in incremental bidding (and against those with common values), in general, delaying bidding is disadvantageous even if delayed bids are sure to be received before the auction closes. Thus, when several bidders submit last-minute bids, we show that rather than seeking to bid as late as possible, a bidder should try to be the first sniper to bid (i.e., it should “snipe before the snipers”).

Conventional centralised information fusion and control architectures will be challenged by developments in sensor networks that allow sophisticated autonomous sensors, owned by different stakeholders with individual goals, to interact and share information. Given this, we advocate the use of tools and techniques from computational mechanism design (CMD), a field at the intersection of computer science, game theory and economics, to address the challenges posed by these networks. In particular, CMD allows us to engineer networks with desirable system-wide properties, in which sensors act as rational selfish agents, each attempting to fulfil their own individuals goals through the exchange of observations and information. In this paper, we present our work developing such networks. Specifically, we discuss our development of a generic and principled information valuation metric for sensor networks and we report our experiences applying it within a real world information fusion sensor network scenario

This paper studies bilateral multi-issue negotiation between self-interested autonomous agents. Now, there are a number of different procedures that can be used for this process; the three main ones being the package deal procedure in which all the issues are bundled and discussed together, the simultaneous procedure in which the issues are discussed simultaneously but independently of each other, and the sequential procedure in which the issues are discussed one after another. Since each of them yields a different outcome, a key problem is to decide which one to use in which circumstances. Specifically, we consider this question for a model in which the agents have time constraints (in the form of both deadlines and discount factors) and information uncertainty (in that the agents do not know the opponent's utility function). For this model, we consider issues that are both independent and those that are interdependent and determine equilibria for each case for each procedure. In so doing, we show that the package deal is in fact the optimal procedure for each party. We then go on to show that, although the package deal may be computationally more complex than the other two procedures, it generates Pareto optimal outcomes (unlike the other two), it has similar earliest and latest possible times of agreement to the simultaneous procedure (which is better than the sequential procedure), and that it (like the other two procedures) generates a unique outcome only under certain conditions (which we define).

This paper presents the design, implementation, and evaluation of a novel bidding algorithm that a software agent can use to obtain multiple goods from multiple overlapping English auctions. Specifically, an Earliest Closest First heuristic algorithm is proposed that uses neurofuzzy techniques to predict the expected closing prices of the auctions and to adapt the agent's bidding strategy to reflect the type of environment in which it is situated. This algorithm first identifies the set of auctions that are most likely to give the agent the best return and then, according to its attitude to risk, it bids in some other auctions that have approximately similar expected returns, but which finish earlier than those in the best return set. We show through empirical evaluation against a number of methods proposed in the multiple auction literature that our bidding strategy performs effectively and robustly in a wide range of scenarios.

In this paper we consider a common form of the English auction that is widely used in online Internet auctions. This discrete bid auction requires that the bidders may only submit bids which meet some predetermined discrete bid levels and, thus, there exists a minimal increment with which a bidder may raise the current price. In contrast, the academic literature of optimal auction design deals almost solely with continuous bid auctions, and, as a result, there is little practical guidance as to how an auctioneer, who is seeking to maximise his revenue, should determine the number and value of these discrete bid levels. Consequently, in current online auctions, a fixed bid increment is commonly implemented, despite this having been shown to be optimal in only limited cases.Given this background, in this paper, our aim is to provide the optimal auction design for an English auction with discrete bid levels. To this end, we derive an expression that relates the expected revenue of the auction, to the actual discrete bid levels im-plemented, the number of bidders participating, and the distribution from which the bidders draw their private independent valuations. We use this expression to derive numerical and analytical solutions for the optimal bid levels in the general case. To compare these results with previous work, we apply these solutions to an example, where bidders' valuations are drawn from a uniform distribution. In this case, we prove that when there are more than two bidders, a decreasing bid increment is optimal and we show that the optimal reserve price of the auction increases as the number of bidders increases. Finally, we compare the properties of an auction in which optimal bid levels are used, to the standard auction approach which implements a fixed bid increment. In so doing, we show that the optimal bid levels result in improvements in the revenue, duration and allocative efficiency of the auction.

Summary form only given. Computer systems in which autonomous software agents negotiate with one another in order to come to mutually acceptable agreements are fast becoming commonplace in a wide range of networked systems (e.g., in the semantic Web, grid computing, pervasive computing and peer-to-peer systems). In such systems, agents are required to participate in a range of negotiation scenarios and exhibit a range of negotiation behaviors (depending on the context). To this end, this paper explores the issues involved in designing and implementing the mechanisms and the strategies by which such agreements can be attained.

Web services have emerged as a new paradigm that supports loosely-coupled distributed systems in service discovery and service execution. Next generation Web services evolve from performing static invocations to engaging in flexible interactions and negotiations for dynamic resource procurement. To this end, this paper applies an agent-oriented based approach over a Web service language, WS-Agreement, in order to facilitate conversations of sufficient expressiveness between adaptive and autonomous services. We discuss how such agent Web service agreements can be implemented over IBM's emerging technologies toolkit (ETTK) that itself includes an implementation of the WS-Agreement specification.

This paper examines the potential and the impact of introducing learning capabilities into autonomous agents that make decisions at run-time about which mechanism to exploit to coordinate their activities. Specifically, our motivating hypothesis is that to deal with dynamic and unpredictable environments it is important to have agents that learn the right situations in which to attempt coordination, and the right coordination method to use in those situations. In particular, the efficacy of learning is evaluated when agents have varying types and amounts of information when those coordinating decisions are taken. This hypothesis is evaluated empirically, in a grid-world scenario in which (a) an agent's predictions about the other agents in the environment are approximately correct and (b) an agent cannot correctly predict the others' behavior. The results presented show when, where and why learning is effective when it comes to making a decision about selecting a coordination mechanism.

Effective coordination of agents' actions in partially-observable domains is a major challenge of multi-agent systems research. To address this, many researchers have developed techniques that allow the agents to make decisions based on estimates of the states and actions of other agents that are typically learnt using some form of machine learning algorithm. Nevertheless, many of these approaches fail to provide an actual means by which the necessary information is made available so that the estimates can be learnt. To this end, we argue that cooperative communication of state information between agents is one such mechanism. However, in a dynamically changing environment, the accuracy and timeliness of this communicated information determine the fidelity of the learned estimates and the usefulness of the actions taken based on these. Given this, we propose a novel information-sharing protocol, post-task-completion sharing, for the distribution of state information. We then show, through a formal analysis, the improvement in the quality of estimates produced using our strategy over the widely used protocol of sharing information between nearest neighbours. Moreover, communication heuristics designed around our information-sharing principle are subjected to empirical evaluation along with other benchmark strategies (including Littman's Q-routing and Stone's TPOT-RL) in a simulated call-routing application. These studies, conducted across a range of environmental settings, show that, compared to the different benchmarks used, our strategy generates an improvement of up to 60% in the call connection rate; of more than 1000% in the ability to connect long-distance calls; and incurs as low as 0.25 of the message overhead.

Grid computing offers significant enhancements to our capabilities for computation, information processing, and collaboration, and has exciting ambitions in many fields of endeavor. We argue that the full richness of the Grid vision, with its application in e-Science, e-Research, or e-Business, requires the "Semantic Grid." The Semantic Grid is an extension of the current Grid in which information and services are given well-defined meaning, better enabling computers and people to work in cooperation. To this end, we outline the requirements of the Semantic Grid, discuss the state of the art in achieving them, and identify the key research challenges in realizing this vision.

Recommender systems are widely used to cope with the problem of information overload and, to date, many recommendation methods have been developed. However, no one technique is best for all users in all situations. To combat this, we have previously developed a market-based recommender system that allows multiple agents (each representing a different recommendation method or system) to compete with one another to present their best recommendations to the user. In our system, the marketplace encourages good recommendations by rewarding the corresponding agents who supplied them according to the users' ratings of their suggestions. Moreover, we have theoretically shown how our system incites the agents to bid in a manner that ensures only the best recommendations are presented. To do this effectively in practice, however, each agent needs to be able to classify its recommendations into different internal quality levels, learn the users' interests for these different levels, and then adapt its bidding behavior for the various levels accordingly. To this end, in this paper, we develop a reinforcement learning and Boltzmann exploration strategy that the recommending agents can exploit for these tasks. We then demonstrate that this strategy does indeed help the agents to effectively obtain information about the users' interests which, in turn, speeds up the market convergence and enables the system to rapidly highlight the best recommendations.

Recommender systems have been widely advocated as a way of coping with the problem of information overload for knowledge workers. Given this, multiple recommendation methods have been developed. However, it has been shown that no one technique is best for all users in all situations. Thus we believe that effective recommender systems should incorporate a wide variety of such techniques and that some form of overarching framework should be put in place to coordinate the various recommendations so that only the best of them (from whatever source) are presented to the user. To this end, we show that a marketplace, in which the various recommendation methods compete to offer their recommendations to the user, can be used in this role. Specifically, this article presents the principled design of such a marketplace (including the auction protocol, the reward mechanism, and the bidding strategies of the individual recommendation agents) and evaluates the market's capability to effectively coordinate multiple methods. Through analysis and simulation, we show that our market is capable of shortlisting recommendations in decreasing order of user perceived quality and of correlating the individual agent's internal quality rating to the user's perceived quality.

In this paper, we develop an energy-aware self-organized routing algorithm for the networking of simple battery-powered wireless microsensors (as found, for example, in security or environmental monitoring applications). In these networks, the battery life of individual sensors is typically limited by the power required to transmit their data to a receiver or sink. Thus, effective network-routing algorithms allow us to reduce this power and extend both the lifetime and the coverage of the sensor network as a whole. However, implementing such routing algorithms with a centralized controller is undesirable due to the physical distribution of the sensors, their limited localization ability, and the dynamic nature of such networks (given that sensors may fail, move, or be added at any time and the communication links between sensors are subject to noise and interference). Against this background, we present a distributed mechanism that enables individual sensors to follow locally selfish strategies, which, in turn, result in the self-organization of a routing network with desirable global properties. We show that our mechanism performs close to the optimal solution (as computed by a centralized optimizer), it deals adaptively with changing sensor numbers and topology, and it extends the useful life of the network by a factor of three over the traditional approach.

Software agents that autonomously act and interact to achieve their design objectives are increasingly being developed for a range of e-commerce applications. In this context, automated negotiation is a central concern since it is the de facto means of establishing contracts for goods or services between the agents. Now, in many cases these contracts consist of multiple issues (e.g. price, time of delivery, quantity, quality) which makes the negotiation more complex than when dealing with just price. In particular, effective and efficient multi-issue negotiation requires an agent to have some indication of its opponent's preferences over these issues. However, in competitive domains, such as e-commerce, an agent will not reveal this information and so the best that can be achieved is to learn some approximation of it through the negotiation exchanges. To this end, we explore and evaluate the use of kernel density estimation for this purpose. Specifically, we couch our work in the context of making negotiation trade-offs and show how our approach can make the negotiation outcome more efficient for both participants.

Automated negotiation by software agents is a key enabling technology for agent mediated e-commerce. To this end, this paper considers an important class of such negotiations - namely those in which an agent engages in multiple concurrent bilateral negotiations for a good or service. In particular, we consider the situation in which a buyer agent is looking for a single service provider from a number of available ones in its environment. By bargaining simultaneously with these providers and interleaving partial agreements that it makes with them, a buyer can reach good deals in an efficient manner. However, a key problem in such encounters is managing commitments since an agent may want to make intermediate deals (so that it has a definite agreement) with other agents before it gets to finalize a deal at the end of the encounter. To do this effectively, however, the agents need to have a flexible model of commitments that they can reason about in order to determine when to commit and to decommit. This paper provides and evaluates such a commitment manager and integrates it into the negotiation model.

This work presents the design, implementation and evaluation of a novel bidding strategy for obtaining goods in multiple overlapping English auctions. The strategy uses fuzzy sets to express trade-offs between multi-attribute goods and exploits neuro-fuzzy techniques to predict the expected closing prices of the auctions and to adapt the agent's bidding strategy to reflect the type of environment in which it is situated. We show, through empirical evaluation against a number of methods proposed in the multiple auction literature, that our strategy performs effectively and robustly in a wide range of scenarios.

This paper highlights intrusiveness as a key issue in the field of pervasive computing environments and presents a multiagent approach to tackling it. Specifically, we discuss how interruptions can impact on individual and group tasks and how they can be managed by taking into account user and group preferences through negotiation between software agents. The system we develop is implemented on the Jabber platform and is deployed in the context of a meeting room scenario.

Software agents are increasingly being used to represent humans in online auctions. Such agents have the advantages of being able to systematically monitor a wide variety of auctions and then make rapid decisions about what bids to place in what auctions. They can do this continuously and repetitively without losing concentration. To provide a means of evaluating and comparing (benchmarking) research methods in this area the trading agent competition (TAC) was established. This competition involves a number of agents bidding against one another in a number of related auctions (operating different protocols) to purchase travel packages for customers. Against this background, this paper describes the design, implementation and evaluation of SouthamptonTAC, one of the most successful participants in both the Second and the Third International Competitions. Our agent uses fuzzy techniques at the heart of its decision making: to make bidding decisions in the face of uncertainty, to make predictions about the likely outcomes of auctions, and to alter the agent's bidding strategy in response to the prevailing market conditions.

Online auctions are increasingly being used as a medium to procure goods and services. As the number of auction sites increases, however, consumers will inevitably want to track and bid in multiple auctions (with multiple protocols) in order to get the best deal for their desired goods. To this end, this paper reports on the development of a heuristic decision making framework that an autonomous agent can exploit to tackle the problem of bidding across multiple heterogeneous auctions. The framework enables the agent to adopt varying tactics and strategies that attempt to ensure that the user's objectives are satisfied. Through empirical evaluation, the agent's performance is shown to be effective even when there are multiple such agents in the environment at the same time and when the agent cannot accurately determine the type of environment that it is situated in.

This paper presents new clearing algorithms for multi-unit single-item and multi-unit combinatorial auctions with piecewise linear demand/supply functions. We analyse the complexity of our algorithms and prove that they are guaranteed to find the optimal allocation.

A wide range of algorithms have been developed for various types of automated negotiation. In developing such algorithms the main focus has been on their efficiency and their effectiveness. However, this is only part of the picture. Agents typically negotiate on behalf of their owners and for this to be effective the agent must be able to adequately represent the owners' preferences. However, the process by which such knowledge is acquired is typically left unspecified. To remove this shortcoming, we present a case study indicating how the knowledge for a particular negotiation algorithm can be acquired. More precisely, according to the analysis on the automated negotiation model, we identified that user trade-off preferences play a fundamental role in negotiation in general. This topic has been addressed little in the research area of user preference elicitation for general decision making problems as well. In a previous paper, we proposed an exhaustive method to acquire user trade-off preferences. In this paper, we developed another method to remove the limitation of the high user workload of the exhaustive method. Although we cannot say that it can exactly capture user trade-off preferences, it models the main commonalities of trade-off relations and reflects users' individualities as well.

This paper surveys and analyzes the state of the art of agent-mediated electronic commerce (e-commerce), concentrating particularly on the business-to-consumer (B2C) and business-to-business (B2B) aspects. From the consumer buying behavior perspective, agents are being used in the following activities: need identification, product brokering, buyer coalition formation, merchant brokering, and negotiation. The roles of agents in B2B e-commerce are discussed through the business-to-business transaction model that identifies agents as being employed in partnership formation, brokering, and negotiation. Having identified the roles for agents in B2C and B2B e-commerce, some of the key underpinning technologies of this vision are highlighted. Finally, we conclude by discussing the future directions and potential impediments to the wide-scale adoption of agent-mediated e-commerce.

Increasingly, many systems are being conceptualized, designed, and implemented as marketplaces in which autonomous software entities (agents) trade services. These services can be commodities in e-commerce applications or data and knowledge services in information economies. In many of these cases, there are both multiple agents that are looking to procure services and multiple agents that are looking to sell services at any one time. Such marketplaces are termed continuous double auctions (CDAs). Against this background, this paper develops new algorithms that buyer and seller agents can use to participate in CDAs. These algorithms employ heuristic fuzzy rules and fuzzy reasoning mechanisms in order to determine the best bid to make given the state of the marketplace. Moreover, we show how an agent can dynamically adjust its bidding behavior to respond effectively to changes in the supply and demand in the marketplace. We then show, by empirical evaluations, how our agents outperform four of the most prominent algorithms previously developed for CDAs (several of which have been shown to outperform human bidders in experimental studies).

Due to the proliferation of online auctions, there is an increasing need to monitor and bid in multiple auctions in order to procure the best deal for the desired good. To this end, this paper reports on the development of a heuristic decision making framework that an autonomous agent can exploit to tackle the problem of bidding across multiple auctions with varying start and end times and with varying protocols (including English, Dutch and Vickrey). The framework is flexible, configurable, and enables the agent to adopt varying tactics and strategies that attempt to ensure that the desired item is delivered in a manner consistent with the user's preferences. Given this large space of possibilities, we employ a genetic algorithm to search (offline) for effective strategies in common classes of environment. The strategies that emerge from this evolution are then codified into the agent's reasoning behaviour so that it can select the most appropriate strategy to employ in its prevailing circumstances. The proposed framework has been implemented in a simulated marketplace environment and its effectiveness has been empirically demonstrated.

Software agents are increasingly being used to represent humans in on-line auctions. Such agents have the advantages of being able to systematically monitor a wide variety of auctions and then make rapid decisions about what bids to place in what auctions. They can do this continuously and repetitively without losing concentration. Moreover, in complex multiple auction settings, agents may need to modify their behavior in one auction depending on what is happening in another. To provide a means of evaluating and comparing (benchmarking) research methods in this area, the Trading Agent Competition (TAC) was established. This competition involves a number of agents bidding against one another in a number of related auctions (operating different protocols) to purchase travel packages for customers. Against this background, this artcle describes the design, implementation and evaluation of our adaptive autonomous trading agent, SouthamptonTAC, one of the most successful participants in TAC 2002.

Systems composed of interacting autonomous agents offer a promising software engineering approach for developing applications in complex domains. However, this multiagent system paradigm introduces a number of new abstractions and design/development issues when compared with more traditional approaches to software development. Accordingly, new analysis and design methodologies, as well as new tools, are needed to effectively engineer such systems. Against this background, the contribution of this article is twofold. First, we synthesize and clarify the key abstractions of agent-based computing as they pertain to agent-oriented software engineering. In particular, we argue that a multiagent system can naturally be viewed and architected as a computational organization , and we identify the appropriate organizational abstractions that are central to the analysis and design of such systems. Second, we detail and extend the Gaia methodology for the analysis and design of multiagent systems. Gaia exploits the aforementioned organizational abstractions to provide clear guidelines for the analysis and design of complex and open software systems. Two representative case studies are introduced to exemplify Gaia's concepts and to show its use and effectiveness in different types of multiagent system.

Mobile electronic commerce (m-commerce) is an emerging manifestation of Internet electronic commerce that bridges the domains of Internet, mobile computing and wireless telecommunications in order to provide an array of sophisticated services (m-services) to mobile users. To date, much of the research in the area has concentrated on the problem of service discovery. However, once a service has been discovered, it needs to be provisioned according to the goals and constraints of the service provider and the service consumer. Since, in general, these will be different stakeholders (with different aims), the de facto provisioning method will be some form of negotiation. To this end, this paper develops automated negotiation protocols and strategies that are applicable in m-commerce environments. Specifically, we develop and evaluate time-constrained bilateral negotiation algorithms, that allow software agents to adapt to the quality of the network and/or their experience of similar interactions.

This article presents a formal framework and outlines a method that autonomous agents can use to negotiate the semantics of their communication language at run–time. Such an ability is needed in open multi–agent systems so that agents can ensure they understand the implications of the utterances that are being made and so that they can tailor the meaning of the primitives to best fit their prevailing circumstances. To this end, the semantic space framework provides a systematic means of classifying the primitives along multiple relevant dimensions. This classification can then be used by the agents to structure their negotiation (or semantic fixing) process so that they converge to the mutually agreeable semantics that are necessary for coherent social interactions.

This paper develops a hybrid model which provides a unified framework for the following four kinds of reasoning: 1) Zadeh's fuzzy approximate reasoning; 2) truth-qualification uncertain reasoning with respect to fuzzy propositions; 3) fuzzy default reasoning (proposed, in this paper, as an extension of Reiter's default reasoning); and 4) truth-qualification uncertain default reasoning associated with fuzzy statements (developed in this paper to enrich fuzzy default reasoning with uncertain information). Our hybrid model has the following characteristics: 1) basic uncertainty is estimated in terms of words or phrases in natural language and basic propositions are fuzzy; 2) uncertainty, linguistically expressed, can be handled in default reasoning; and 3) the four kinds of reasoning models mentioned above and their combination models will be the special cases of our hybrid model. Moreover, our model allows the reasoning to be performed in the case in which the information is fuzzy, uncertain and partial. More importantly, the problems of sharing the information among heterogeneous fuzzy, uncertain and default reasoning models can be solved efficiently by using our model. Given this, our framework can be used as a basis for information sharing and exchange in knowledge-based multi-agent systems for practical applications such as automated group negotiations. Actually, to build such a foundation is the motivation of this paper.

In this paper, we present an abstract formal model of decision‐making in a social setting that covers all aspects of the process, from recognition of a potential for cooperation through to joint decision. In a multi‐agent environment, where self‐motivated autonomous agents try to pursue their own goals, a joint decision cannot be taken for granted. In order to decide effectively, agents need the ability to (a) represent and maintain a model of their own mental attitudes, (b) reason about other agents' mental attitudes, and (c) influence other agents' mental states. Social mental shaping is advocated as a general mechanism for attempting to have an impact on agents' mental states in order to increase their cooperativeness towards a joint decision. Our approach is to specify a novel, high‐level architecture for collaborative decision‐making in which the mentalistic notions of belief, desire, goal, intention, preference and commitment play a central role in guiding the individual agent's and the group's decision‐making behaviour. We identify preconditions that must be fulfilled before collaborative decision‐making can commence and prescribe how cooperating agents should behave, in terms of their own decision‐making apparatus and their interactions with others, when the decision‐making process is progressing satisfactorily. The model is formalized through a new, many‐sorted, multi‐modal logic.

In the area of agent‐based computing there are many proposals for specific system architectures, and a number of proposals for general approaches to building agents. As yet, however, there are comparatively few attempts to relate these together, and even fewer attempts to provide methodologies which relate designs to architectures and then to executable agents. This paper provides a first attempt to address this shortcoming. We propose a general method of specifying logic‐based agents, which is based on the use of multi‐context systems, and give examples of its use. The resulting specifications can be directly executed, and we discuss an implementation which makes this direct execution possible.

This paper presents a framework that captures how the social nature of agents that are situated in a multi‐agent environment impacts upon their individual mental states. Roles and social relationships provide an abstraction upon which we develop the notion of social mental shaping. This allows us to extend the standard Belief‐Desire‐Intention model to account for how common social phenomena (e.g. cooperation, collaborative problem‐solving and negotiation) can be integrated into a unified theoretical perspective that reflects a fully explicated model of the autonomous agent’s mental state.

Multi-agent systems can very naturally be viewed as computational organisations. For this reason, we believe organisational abstractions offer a promising set of metaphors and models that can be exploited in the analysis and design of such systems. To this end, the concept of role models is increasingly being used to specify and design multi-agent systems. However, this is not the full picture. In this paper we introduce three additional organisational concepts — organisational rules, organisational structures, and organisational patterns — and discuss why we believe they are necessary for the complete specification of computational organisations. In particular, we focus on the concept of organisational rules and introduce a formalism, based on temporal logic, to specify them. This formalism is then used to drive the definition of the organisational structure and the identification of the organisational patterns. Finally, the paper sketches some guidelines for a methodology for agent-oriented systems based on our expanded set of organisational abstractions.

Socially intelligent agents are autonomous problem solvers that have to achieve their objectives by interacting with other similarly autonomous entities. A major concern, therefore, is with the design of the decision-making mechanism that such agents employ in order to determine which actions to take to achieve their goals. We propose a framework for making socially acceptable decisions, based on social welfare functions, that combines social and individual perspectives in a unified and flexible manner. The framework is realized in an exemplar computational setting and an empirical analysis is made of the relative performance of varying sociable decision-making functions in a range of environments. This analysis is then used to design an agent that adapts its decision-making to reflect the resource constraints that it faces at any given time. A further round of empirical evaluation shows how adding such a meta-level mechanism enhances the performance of the agent by directing reasoning to adopt different strategies in different contexts. Finally, the possibility and efficacy of making the metalevel mechanism adaptive, so that experience of past encounters can be factored into the decision-making, is demonstrated.

Summary form only given, as follows. Traditional approaches to managing business processes are often inadequate for large-scale, organizationwide, dynamic settings. However with the explosion of electronic commerce applications, increasingly many business processes exhibit these properties. Therefore a new approach is needed. To this end, we describe the motivation, conceptualization, design and implementation of a next generation, agent-based business process management system (called ADEPT). The key advance of ADEPT is that responsibility for enacting various components of the business process is delegated to a number of autonomous problems solving agents. To enact their role, these agents typically interact and negotiate with other agents in order to coordinate their actions and to buy in the services they require. This approach leads to a system that is significantly more flexible, agile and robust than its traditional counterparts. To demonstrate the applicability of our approach, the application of the ADEPT technology to a British Telecom business process is discussed in detail.

We present a model of cooperative problem solving that describes the process from its beginning, with some agent recognizing the potential for cooperation with respect to one of its goals, through to team action. Our approach is to characterize the mental states of the agents that lead them to solicit, and take part in, cooperative action. The model is formalized by expressing it as a theory in a quantified multi-modal logic.

Many organizations collect vast quantities of 3D scientific data in volumetric form for a range of purposes, including resource exploration, market forecasting and process modeling. Traditionally, these data have been interpreted by human experts with only minimal software assistance. However, such manual interpretation is a painstakingly slow and tedious process. Moreover, since interpretation involves subjective judgments and each interpreter has different scientific knowledge and experience, the formulation of an effective interpretation often requires the cooperation of numerous such experts. Hence there is a pressing need for a software system in which individual interpretations can be generated automatically and then refined through the use of cooperative reasoning and information sharing. To this end, a prototype system, SurfaceMapper, has been developed in which a community of cooperating software agents automatically locate and display interpretations in a volume of 3D scientific data. The challenges and experiences in designing and building such a system are discussed. Particular emphasis is given to the agents' interactions and an empirical evaluation of the effectiveness of different cooperation strategies is presented.

Journal Article Editorial Get access NICK JENNINGS, NICK JENNINGS Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar MIKE WOOLDRIDGE, MIKE WOOLDRIDGE Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar FAUSTO GIUNCHIGLIA FAUSTO GIUNCHIGLIA Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Journal of Logic and Computation, Volume 8, Issue 3, June 1998, Pages 231–232, https://doi.org/10.1093/logcom/8.3.231 Published: 01 June 1998

The need for negotiation in multi-agent systems stems from the requirement for agents to solve the problems posed by their interdependence upon one another. Negotiation provides a solution to these problems by giving the agents the means to resolve their conflicting objectives, correct inconsistencies in their knowledge of other agents' world views, and coordinate a joint approach to domain tasks which benefits all the agents concerned. We propose a framework, based upon a system of argumentation, which permits agents to negotiate in order to establish acceptable ways of solving problems. The framework provides a formal model of argumentation-based reasoning and negotiation, details a design philosophy which ensures a clear link between the formal model and its practical instantiation, and describes a case study of this relationship for a particular class of architectures (namely those for belief-desire-intention agents).

This paper discusses an example of the application of a high-level modelling framework which supports both the specification and implementation of a system's conceptual design. This framework, DESIRE (framework for DEsign and Specification of Interacting REasoning components), explicitly models the knowledge, interaction, and coordination of complex tasks and reasoning capabilities in agent systems. For the application domain addressed in this paper, an operational multi-agent system which manages an electricity transportation network for a Spanish electricity utility, a comprehensible specification is presented.

This paper describes work undertaken in the ADEPT (Advanced Decision Environment for Process Tasks) project towards developing an agent-based infrastructure for managing business processes. We describe how the key technology of negotiating, service providing, autonomous agents was realized and demonstrate how this was applied to the BT (British Telecom) business process of providing a customer quote for network services.

Systems composed of multiple interacting problem solvers are becoming increasingly pervasive and have been championed in some quarters as the basis of the next generation of intelligent information systems. If this technology is to fulfill its true potential then it is important that the systems which are developed have a sound theoretical grounding. One aspect of this foundation, namely the model of collaborative problem solving, is examined in this paper. A synergistic review of existing models of cooperation is presented, their weaknesses are highlighted and a new model (called joint responsibility) is introduced. Joint responsibility is then used to specify a novel high-level agent architecture for cooperative problem solving in which the mentalistic notions of belief, desire, intention and joint intention play a central role in guiding an individual’s and the group’s problem solving behaviour. An implementation of this high-level architecture is then discussed and its utility is illustrated for the real-world domain of electricity transportation management.