A wide variety of goals could cause an AI to disable its off switch because ``you can’t fetch the coffee if you’re dead.'' Prior theoretical work on this shutdown problem assumes that humans know everything that AIs do. In practice, however, humans have only limited information. Moreover, in many of the settings where the shutdown problem is most concerning, AIs might have vast amounts of private information. To capture these differences in knowledge, we introduce the Partially Observable Off-Switch Game (POSG), a game-theoretic model of the shutdown problem with asymmetric information. Unlike in the fully observable case, we find that in optimal play, even AI agents assisting perfectly rational humans sometimes avoid shutdown. As expected, increasing the amount of communication or information available always increases (or leaves unchanged) the agents' expected common payoff. But counterintuitively, introducing bounded communication can make the AI defer to the human less in optimal play even though communication mitigates information asymmetry. Thus, designing safe artificial agents in the presence of asymmetric information requires careful consideration of the tradeoffs between maximizing payoffs (potentially myopically) and maintaining AIs’ incentives to defer to humans.

Language models (LMs) are susceptible to bias, sycophancy, backdoors, and other tendencies that lead to unfaithful responses to the input context. Interpreting internal states of LMs could help monitor and correct unfaithful behavior. We hypothesize that LMs faithfully represent their input contexts in a latent world model, and we seek to extract these latent world states as logical propositions. For example, given the input context ``Greg is a nurse. Laura is a physicist.'', we aim to decode the propositions WorksAs(Greg, nurse) and WorksAs(Laura, physicist) from the model's internal activations. To do so we introduce _propositional probes_, which compositionally extract lexical concepts from token activations and bind them into propositions. Key to this is identifying a _binding subspace_ in which bound tokens have high similarity (Greg $\leftrightarrow$ nurse) but unbound ones do not (Greg $\not\leftrightarrow$ physicist). Despite only being trained on linguistically simple English templates, we find that propositional probes generalize to inputs written as short stories and translated to Spanish. Moreover, in three settings where LMs respond unfaithfully to the input context---prompt injections, backdoor attacks, and gender bias--- the decoded propositions remain faithful. This suggests that LMs often encode a faithful world model but decode it unfaithfully, which motivates the search for better interpretability tools for monitoring LMs.

Large language models generate code one token at a time. Their autoregressive generation process lacks the feedback of observing the program's output. Training LLMs to suggest edits directly can be challenging due to the scarcity of rich edit data. To address these problems, we propose neural diffusion models that operate on syntax trees of any context-free grammar. Similar to image diffusion models, our method also inverts "noise" applied to syntax trees. Rather than generating code sequentially, we iteratively edit it while preserving syntactic validity, which makes it easy to combine this neural model with search. We apply our approach to inverse graphics tasks, where our model learns to convert images into programs that produce those images. Combined with search, our model is able to write graphics programs, see the execution result, and debug them to meet the required specifications. We additionally show how our system can write graphics programs for hand-drawn sketches. Video results can be found at https://tree-diffusion.github.io.

Intrinsic motivation and reward shaping guide reinforcement learning (RL) agents by adding pseudo-rewards, which can lead to useful emergent behaviors. However, they can also encourage counterproductive exploits, e.g., fixation with noisy TV screens. Here we provide a theoretical model which anticipates these behaviors, and provides broad criteria under which adverse effects can be bounded. We characterize all pseudo-rewards as reward shaping in Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Processes (BAMDPs), which formulates the problem of learning in MDPs as an MDP over the agent's knowledge. Optimal exploration maximizes BAMDP state value, which we decompose into the value of the information gathered and the prior value of the physical state. Psuedo-rewards guide RL agents by rewarding behavior that increases these value components, while they hinder exploration when they align poorly with the actual value. We extend potential-based shaping theory to prove BAMDP Potential-based shaping Functions (BAMPFs) are immune to reward-hacking (convergence to behaviors maximizing composite rewards to the detriment of real rewards) in meta-RL, and show empirically how a BAMPF helps a meta-RL agent learn optimal RL algorithms for a Bernoulli Bandit domain. We finally prove that BAMPFs with bounded monotone increasing potentials also resist reward-hacking in the regular RL setting. We show that it is straightforward to retrofit or design new pseudo-reward terms in this form, and provide an empirical demonstration in the Mountain Car environment.

We study partially observable assistance games (POAGs), a model of the human-AI value alignment problem which allows the human and the AI assistant to have partial observations. Motivated by concerns of AI deception, we study a qualitatively new phenomenon made possible by partial observability: would an AI assistant ever have an incentive to interfere with the human’s observations? First, we prove that sometimes an optimal assistant must take observation-interfering actions, even when the human is playing optimally, and even when there are otherwise-equivalent actions available that do not interfere with observations. Though this result seems to contradict the classic theorem from single-agent decision making that the value of perfect information is nonnegative, we resolve this seeming contradiction by developing a notion of interference defined on entire policies. This can be viewed as an extension of the classic result that the value of perfect information is nonnegative into the cooperative multiagent setting. Second, we prove that if the human is simply making decisions based on their immediate outcomes, the assistant might need to interfere with observations as a way to query the human’s preferences. We show that this incentive for interference goes away if the human is playing optimally, or if we introduce a communication channel for the human to communicate their preferences to the assistant. Third, we show that if the human acts according to the Boltzmann model of irrationality, this can create an incentive for the assistant to interfere with observations. Finally, we use an experimental model to analyze tradeoffs faced by the AI assistant in practice when considering whether or not to take observation-interfering actions.

Pretrained language models (LMs) can generalize to implications of facts that they are finetuned on. For example, if finetuned on "John Doe lives in Tokyo," LMs correctly answer "What language do the people in John Doe’s city speak?” with "Japanese”. However, little is known about the mechanisms that enable this generalization or how they are learned during pretraining. We introduce extractive structures as a framework for describing how components in LMs (e.g., MLPs or attention heads) coordinate to enable this generalization. The structures consist of informative components that store training facts as weight changes, and upstream and downstream extractive components that query and process the stored information to produce the correct implication. We hypothesize that extractive structures are learned during pretraining when encountering implications of previously known facts. This yields two predictions: a data ordering effect where extractive structures can be learned only if facts precede their implications, and a weight grafting effect where extractive structures can be grafted to predict counterfactual implications. We empirically show these effects in the OLMo-7b, Llama 3-8b, Gemma 2-9b, and Qwen 2-7b models. Of independent interest, our results also indicate that fact learning can occur at both early and late layers, which lead to different forms of generalization.

Assistance games are a promising alternative to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) for training AI assistants. Assistance games resolve key drawbacks of RLHF, such as incentives for deceptive behavior, by explicitly modeling the interaction between assistant and user as a two-player game where the assistant cannot observe their shared goal. Despite their potential, assistance games have only been explored in simple settings. Scaling them to more complex environments is difficult because it requires both solving intractable decision-making problems under uncertainty and accurately modeling human users’ behavior. We present the first scalable approach to solving assistance games and apply it to a new, challenging Minecraft-based assistance game with over $10^{400}$ possible goals. Our approach, AssistanceZero, extends AlphaZero with a neural network that predicts human actions and rewards, enabling it to plan under uncertainty. We show that AssistanceZero outperforms model-free RL algorithms and imitation learning in the Minecraft-based assistance game. In a human study, our AssistanceZero-trained assistant significantly reduces the number of actions participants take to complete building tasks in Minecraft. Our results suggest that assistance games are a tractable framework for training effective AI assistants in complex environments. Code and videos are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/w/scalably-solving-assistance-games/.

Most learning algorithms with formal regret guarantees assume that all mistakes are recoverable and essentially rely on trying all possible behaviors. This approach is problematic when some mistakes are *catastrophic*, i.e., irreparable. We propose an online learning problem where the goal is to minimize the chance of catastrophe. Specifically, we assume that the payoff in each round represents the chance of avoiding catastrophe in that round and try to maximize the product of payoffs (the overall chance of avoiding catastrophe) while allowing a limited number of queries to a mentor. We also assume that the agent can transfer knowledge between similar inputs. We first show that in general, any algorithm either queries the mentor at a linear rate or is nearly guaranteed to cause catastrophe. However, in settings where the mentor policy class is learnable in the standard online model, we provide an algorithm whose regret and rate of querying the mentor both approach 0 as the time horizon grows. Although our focus is the product of payoffs, we provide matching bounds for the typical additive regret. Conceptually, if a policy class is learnable in the absence of catastrophic risk, it is learnable in the presence of catastrophic risk if the agent can ask for help.

Large language models (LLMs) can acquire new knowledge through fine-tuning, but this process exhibits a puzzling duality: models can generalize remarkably from new facts, yet are also prone to hallucinating incorrect information. However, the reasons for this phenomenon remain poorly understood. In this work, we argue that both behaviors stem from a single mechanism known as out-of-context reasoning (OCR): the ability to deduce implications by associating concepts, even those without a causal link. Our experiments across five prominent LLMs confirm that OCR indeed drives both generalization and hallucination, depending on whether the associated concepts are causally related. To build a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon, we then formalize OCR as a synthetic factual recall task. We empirically show that a one-layer single-head attention-only transformer with factorized output and value matrices can learn to solve this task, while a model with combined weights cannot, highlighting the crucial role of matrix factorization. Our theoretical analysis shows that the OCR capability can be attributed to the implicit bias of gradient descent, which favors solutions that minimize the nuclear norm of the combined output-value matrix. This structure explains why the model learns to associate facts and implications with high sample efficiency, regardless of whether the correlation is causal or merely spurious. Ultimately, our work provides a theoretical foundation for understanding the OCR phenomenon, offering a new lens for analyzing and mitigating undesirable behaviors from knowledge injection.

Adversarial optimization algorithms that explicitly search for flaws in agents' policies have been successfully applied to finding robust and diverse policies in the context of multi-agent learning. However, the success of adversarial optimization has been largely limited to zero-sum settings because its naive application in cooperative settings leads to a critical failure mode: agents are irrationally incentivized to *self-sabotage*, blocking the completion of tasks and halting further learning. To address this, we introduce *Rationality-preserving Policy Optimization (RPO)*, a formalism for adversarial optimization that avoids self-sabotage by ensuring agents remain *rational*—that is, their policies are optimal with respect to some possible partner policy. To solve RPO, we develop *Rational Policy Gradient (RPG)*, which trains agents to maximize their own reward in a modified version of the original game in which we use *opponent shaping* techniques to optimize the adversarial objective. RPG enables us to extend a variety of existing adversarial optimization algorithms that, no longer subject to the limitations of self-sabotage, can find adversarial examples, improve robustness and adaptability, and learn diverse policies. We empirically validate that our approach achieves strong performance in several popular cooperative and general-sum environments. Our project page can be found at https://rational-policy-gradient.github.io.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in many applications, including challenging reasoning problems via chain-of-thought (CoT) techniques that generate ``thinking tokens'' before answering the questions. While existing theoretical works demonstrate that CoT with discrete tokens boosts the capability of LLMs, recent work on continuous CoT lacks a theoretical understanding of why it outperforms discrete counterparts in various reasoning tasks, such as directed graph reachability, a fundamental graph reasoning problem that includes many practical domain applications as special cases. In this paper, we prove that a two-layer transformer with $D$ steps of continuous CoT can solve the directed graph reachability problem, where $D$ is the diameter of the graph, while the best known result of constant-depth transformers with discrete CoT requires $O(n^2)$ decoding steps where $n$ is the number of vertices ($D<n$). In our construction, each continuous thought vector is a superposition state that encodes multiple search frontiers simultaneously (i.e., parallel breadth-first search (BFS)), while discrete CoT must choose a single path sampled from the superposition state, which leads to a sequential search that requires many more steps and may be trapped in local solutions. We also performed extensive experiments to verify that our theoretical construction aligns well with the empirical solution obtained via training dynamics. Notably, encoding of multiple search frontiers as a superposition state automatically emerges in training continuous CoT, without explicit supervision to guide the model to explore multiple paths simultaneously.

In reinforcement learning (RL), if the agent’s reward differs from the designers’ true utility, even only rarely, the state distribution resulting from the agent’s policy can be very bad, in theory and in practice. When RL policies would devolve into undesired behavior, a common countermeasure is KL regularization to a trusted policy ("Don’t do anything I wouldn’t do"). All current cutting-edge language models are RL agents that are KL-regularized to a "base policy" that is purely predictive. Unfortunately, we demonstrate that when this base policy is a Bayesian predictive model of a trusted policy, the KL constraint is no longer reliable for controlling the behavior of an advanced RL agent. We demonstrate this theoretically using algorithmic information theory, and while systems today are too weak to exhibit this theorized failure precisely, we RL-finetune a language model and find evidence that our formal results are plausibly relevant in practice. We also propose a theoretical alternative that avoids this problem by replacing the "Don’t do anything I wouldn’t do" principle with "Don’t do anything I mightn’t do".

Reinforcement learning (RL) theory has largely focused on proving minimax sample complexity bounds. These require strategic exploration algorithms that use relatively limited function classes for representing the policy or value function. Our goal is to explain why deep RL algorithms often perform well in practice, despite using random exploration and much more expressive function classes like neural networks. Our work arrives at an explanation by showing that many stochastic MDPs can be solved by performing only a few steps of value iteration on the random policy’s Q function and then acting greedily. When this is true, we find that it is possible to separate the exploration and learning components of RL, making it much easier to analyze. We introduce a new RL algorithm, SQIRL, that iteratively learns a near-optimal policy by exploring randomly to collect rollouts and then performing a limited number of steps of fitted-Q iteration over those roll- outs. We find that any regression algorithm that satisfies basic in-distribution generalization properties can be used in SQIRL to efficiently solve common MDPs. This can explain why deep RL works with complex function approximators like neural networks, since it is empirically established that neural networks generalize well in-distribution. Furthermore, SQIRL explains why random exploration works well in practice, since we show many environments can be solved by effectively estimating the random policy’s Q-function and then applying zero or a few steps of value iteration. We leverage SQIRL to derive instance-dependent sample complexity bounds for RL that are exponential only in an “effective horizon” of lookahead—which is typically much smaller than the full horizon—and on the complexity of the class used for function approximation. Empirically, we also find that SQIRL performance strongly correlates with PPO and DQN performance in a variety of stochastic environments, supporting that our theoretical analysis is predictive of practical performance. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/cassidylaidlaw/effective-horizon.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used in real-world applications, they remain vulnerable to *prompt injection attacks*: malicious third party prompts that subvert the intent of the system designer. To help researchers study this problem, we present a dataset of over 563,000 prompt injection attacks and 118,000 prompt-based "defenses" against prompt injection, all created by players of an online game called Tensor Trust. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first dataset that includes both human-generated attacks and defenses for instruction-following LLMs. The attacks in our dataset have easily interpretable structure, and shed light on the weaknesses of LLMs. We also use the dataset to create a benchmark for resistance to two types of prompt injection, which we refer to as *prompt extraction* and *prompt hijacking*. Our benchmark results show that many models are vulnerable to the attack strategies in the Tensor Trust dataset. Furthermore, we show that some attack strategies from the dataset generalize to deployed LLM-based applications, even though they have a very different set of constraints to the game. We release data and code at [tensortrust.ai/paper](https://tensortrust.ai/paper)

We study the representation complexity of model-based and model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in the context of circuit complexity. We prove theoretically that there exists a broad class of MDPs such that their underlying transition and reward functions can be represented by constant depth circuits with polynomial size, while the optimal $Q$-function suffers an exponential circuit complexity in constant-depth circuits. By drawing attention to the approximation errors and building connections to complexity theory, our theory provides unique insights into why model-based algorithms usually enjoy better sample complexity than model-free algorithms from a novel representation complexity perspective: in some cases, the ground-truth rule (model) of the environment is simple to represent, while other quantities, such as $Q$-function, appear complex. We empirically corroborate our theory by comparing the approximation error of the transition kernel, reward function, and optimal $Q$-function in various Mujoco environments, which demonstrates that the approximation errors of the transition kernel and reward function are consistently lower than those of the optimal $Q$-function. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to study the circuit complexity of RL, which also provides a rigorous framework for future research.

Are foundation models secure against malicious actors? In this work, we focus on the image input to a vision-language model (VLM). We discover image hijacks, adversarial images that control the behaviour of VLMs at inference time, and introduce the general Behaviour Matching algorithm for training image hijacks. From this, we derive the Prompt Matching method, allowing us to train hijacks matching the behaviour of an arbitrary user-defined text prompt (e.g. ’the Eiffel Tower is now located in Rome’) using a generic, off-the-shelf dataset unrelated to our choice of prompt. We use Behaviour matching to craft hijacks for four types of attack: forcing VLMs to generate outputs of the adversary’s choice, leak information from their context window, override their safety training, and believe false statements. We study these attacks against LLaVA, a state-of-the-art VLM based on CLIP and LLaMA-2, and find that all attack types achieve a success rate of over 80%. Moreover, our attacks are automated and require only small image perturbations.

Existing AI alignment approaches assume that preferences are static, which is unrealistic: our preferences change, and may even be influenced by our interactions with AI systems themselves. To clarify the consequences of incorrectly assuming static preferences, we introduce Dynamic Reward Markov Decision Processes (DR-MDPs), which explicitly model preference changes and the AI’s influence on them. We show that despite its convenience, the static-preference assumption may undermine the soundness of existing alignment techniques, leading them to implicitly reward AI systems for influencing user preferences in ways users may not truly want. We then explore potential solutions. First, we offer a unifying perspective on how an agent’s optimization horizon may partially help reduce undesirable AI influence. Then, we formalize different notions of AI alignment that account for preference change from the outset. Comparing the strengths and limitations of 8 such notions of alignment, we find that they all either err towards causing undesirable AI influence, or are overly risk-averse, suggesting that a straightforward solution to the problems of changing preferences may not exist. As there is no avoiding grappling with changing preferences in real-world settings, this makes it all the more important to handle these issues with care, balancing risks and capabilities. We hope our work can provide conceptual clarity and constitute a first step towards AI alignment practices which explicitly account for (and contend with) the changing and influenceable nature of human preferences.

Foundation models such as GPT-4 are fine-tuned to avoid unsafe or otherwise problematic behavior, such as helping to commit crimes or producing racist text. One approach to fine-tuning, called reinforcement learning from human feedback, learns from humans’ expressed preferences over multiple outputs. Another approach is constitutional AI, in which the input from humans is a list of high-level principles. But how do we deal with potentially diverging input from humans? How can we aggregate the input into consistent data about “collective” preferences or otherwise use it to make collective choices about model behavior? In this paper, we argue that the field of social choice is well positioned to address these questions, and we discuss ways forward for this agenda, drawing on discussions in a recent workshop on Social Choice for AI Ethics and Safety held in Berkeley, CA, USA in December 2023.

Preference-based reward learning is a popular technique for teaching robots and autonomous systems how a human user wants them to perform a task. Previous works have shown that actively synthesizing preference queries to maximize information gain about the reward function parameters improves data efficiency. The information gain criterion focuses on precisely identifying all parameters of the reward function. This can potentially be wasteful as many parameters may result in the same reward, and many rewards may result in the same behavior in the downstream tasks. Instead, we show that it is possible to optimize for learning the reward function up to a behavioral equivalence class, such as inducing the same ranking over behaviors, distribution over choices, or other related definitions of what makes two rewards similar. We introduce a tractable framework that can capture such definitions of similarity. Our experiments in a synthetic environment, an assistive robotics environment with domain transfer, and a natural language processing problem with real datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our querying method over the state-of-the-art information gain method.

Ethically compliant autonomous systems (ECAS) are the prevailing approach to building robotic systems that perform sequential decision making subject to ethical theories in fully observable environments. However, in real-world robotics settings, these systems often operate under partial observability because of sensor limitations, environmental conditions, or limited inference due to bounded computational resources. Therefore, this paper proposes a partially observable ECAS (PO-ECAS), bringing this work one step closer to being a practical and useful tool for roboticists. First, we formally introduce the PO-ECAS framework and a MILP-based solution method for approximating an optimal ethically compliant policy. Next, we extend an existing ethical framework for prima facie duties to belief space and offer an ethical framework for virtue ethics inspired by Aristotle’s Doctrine of the Mean. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach is effective in a simulated campus patrol robot domain.

Do neural networks learn to implement algorithms such as look-ahead or search "in the wild"? Or do they rely purely on collections of simple heuristics? We present evidence of *learned look-ahead* in the policy and value network of Leela Chess Zero, the currently strongest deep neural chess engine. We find that Leela internally represents future optimal moves and that these representations are crucial for its final output in certain board states. Concretely, we exploit the fact that Leela is a transformer that treats every chessboard square like a token in language models, and give three lines of evidence: (1) activations on certain squares of future moves are unusually important causally; (2) we find attention heads that move important information "forward and backward in time," e.g., from squares of future moves to squares of earlier ones; and (3) we train a simple probe that can predict the optimal move 2 turns ahead with 92% accuracy (in board states where Leela finds a single best line). These findings are clear evidence of learned look-ahead in neural networks and might be a step towards a better understanding of their capabilities.

Past analyses of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) assume that the human evaluators fully observe the environment. What happens when human feedback is based only on partial observations? We formally define two failure cases: deceptive inflation and overjustification. Modeling the human as Boltzmann-rational w.r.t. a belief over trajectories, we prove conditions under which RLHF is guaranteed to result in policies that deceptively inflate their performance, overjustify their behavior to make an impression, or both. Under the new assumption that the human's partial observability is known and accounted for, we then analyze how much information the feedback process provides about the return function. We show that sometimes, the human's feedback determines the return function uniquely up to an additive constant, but in other realistic cases, there is irreducible ambiguity. We propose exploratory research directions to help tackle these challenges and experimentally validate both the theoretical concerns and potential mitigations, and caution against blindly applying RLHF in partially observable settings.

Auto-regressive large language models (LLMs) show impressive capacities to solve many complex reasoning tasks while struggling with some simple logical reasoning tasks such as inverse search: when trained on ''$A \to B$'' (e.g., *Tom is the parent of John*), LLM fails to directly conclude ''$B \gets A$'' (e.g., *John is the child of Tom*) during inference even if the two sentences are semantically identical, which is known as the ''reversal curse''. In this paper, we theoretically analyze the reversal curse via the training dynamics of (stochastic) gradient descent for two auto-regressive models: (1) a bilinear model that can be viewed as a simplification of a one-layer transformer; (2) one-layer transformers under certain assumptions. Our analysis reveals that for both models, the reversal curse is a consequence of the (effective) model weights *asymmetry*, i.e., the increase of weights from a token $A$ to token $B$ during training does not necessarily cause the increase of the weights from $B$ to $A$, which is caused by the training dynamics under certain choice of loss function and the optimization space of model parameters. Moreover, our analysis can be naturally applied to other logical reasoning tasks such as chain-of-thought (COT), which provides a new perspective different from previous work that focuses on expressivity. Finally, we conduct experiments to validate our theory on multi-layer transformers under different settings. Our code is available at [https://github.com/marlo-z/reversal_curse_analysis/](https://github.com/marlo-z/reversal_curse_analysis/).

This paper introduces SMCP3, a method for automatically implementing custom sequential Monte Carlo samplers for inference in probabilistic programs. Unlike particle filters and resample-move SMC (Gilks and Berzuini, 2001), SMCP3 algorithms can improve the quality of samples and weights using pairs of Markov proposal kernels that are also specified by probabilistic programs. Unlike Del Moral et al. (2006b), these proposals can themselves be complex probabilistic computations that generate auxiliary variables, apply deterministic transformations, and lack tractable marginal densities. This paper also contributes an efficient implementation in Gen that eliminates the need to manually derive incremental importance weights. SMCP3 thus simultaneously expands the design space that can be explored by SMC practitioners and reduces the implementation effort. SMCP3 is illustrated using applications to 3D object tracking, state-space modeling, and data clustering, showing that SMCP3 methods can simultaneously improve the quality and reduce the cost of marginal likelihood estimation and posterior inference.

To optimally coordinate with others in cooperative games, it is often crucial to have information about one’s collaborators: successful driving requires understanding which side of the road to drive on. However, not every feature of collaborators is strategically relevant: the fine-grained acceleration of drivers may be ignored while maintaining optimal coordination. We show that there is a well-defined dichotomy between strategically relevant and irrelevant information. Moreover, we show that, in dynamic games, this dichotomy has a compact representation that can be efficiently computed via a Bellman backup operator. We apply this algorithm to analyze the strategically relevant information for tasks in both a standard and a partially observable version of the Overcooked environment. Theoretical and empirical results show that our algorithms are significantly more efficient than baselines. Videos are available at https://minknowledge.github.io.

It is often very challenging to manually design reward functions for complex, real-world tasks. To solve this, one can instead use reward learning to infer a reward function from data. However, there are often multiple reward functions that fit the data equally well, even in the infinite-data limit. This means that the reward function is only partially identifiable. In this work, we formally characterise the partial identifiability of the reward function given several popular reward learning data sources, including expert demonstrations and trajectory comparisons. We also analyse the impact of this partial identifiability for several downstream tasks, such as policy optimisation. We unify our results in a framework for comparing data sources and downstream tasks by their invariances, with implications for the design and selection of data sources for reward learning.

We attack the state-of-the-art Go-playing AI system KataGo by training adversarial policies against it, achieving a $>$97% win rate against KataGo running at superhuman settings. Our adversaries do not win by playing Go well. Instead, they trick KataGo into making serious blunders. Our attack transfers zero-shot to other superhuman Go-playing AIs, and is comprehensible to the extent that human experts can implement it without algorithmic assistance to consistently beat superhuman AIs. The core vulnerability uncovered by our attack persists even in KataGo agents adversarially trained to defend against our attack. Our results demonstrate that even superhuman AI systems may harbor surprising failure modes. Example games are available https://goattack.far.ai/.

Robotic systems are often composed of modular algorithms that each perform a specific function within a larger architecture, ranging from state estimation and task planning to trajectory optimization and object recognition. Existing work for specifying these systems as a formal composition of contract algorithms has limited expressiveness compared to the variety of sophisticated architectures that are commonly used in practice. Therefore, in this paper, we (1) propose a novel metareasoning framework for formally composing robotic systems as a contract program with programming constructs for functional, conditional, and looping semantics and (2) introduce a recursive hill climbing algorithm that finds a locally optimal time allocation of a contract program. In our experiments, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms baseline techniques in a simulated pick-and-place robot domain.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) works impressively in some environments and fails catastrophically in others. Ideally, RL theory should be able to provide an understanding of why this is, i.e. bounds predictive of practical performance. Unfortunately, current theory does not quite have this ability. We compare standard deep RL algorithms to prior sample complexity bounds by introducing a new dataset, BRIDGE. It consists of 155 MDPs from common deep RL benchmarks, along with their corresponding tabular representations, which enables us to exactly compute instance-dependent bounds. We find that prior bounds do not correlate well with when deep RL succeeds vs. fails, but discover a surprising property that does. When actions with the highest Q-values under the *random* policy also have the highest Q-values under the *optimal* policy—i.e., when it is optimal to act greedily with respect to the random's policy Q function—deep RL tends to succeed; when they don't, deep RL tends to fail. We generalize this property into a new complexity measure of an MDP that we call the *effective horizon*, which roughly corresponds to how many steps of lookahead search would be needed in that MDP in order to identify the next optimal action, when leaf nodes are evaluated with random rollouts. Using BRIDGE, we show that the effective horizon-based bounds are more closely reflective of the empirical performance of PPO and DQN than prior sample complexity bounds across four metrics. We also show that, unlike existing bounds, the effective horizon can predict the effects of using reward shaping or a pre-trained exploration policy. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/cassidylaidlaw/effective-horizon.

The content that a recommender system (RS) shows to users influences them. Therefore, when choosing a recommender to deploy, one is implicitly also choosing to induce specific internal states in users. Even more, systems trained via long-horizon optimization will have direct incentives to manipulate users, e.g. shift their preferences so they are easier to satisfy. We focus on induced preference shifts in users. We argue that {–} before deployment {–} system designers should: estimate the shifts a recommender would induce; evaluate whether such shifts would be undesirable; and perhaps even actively optimize to avoid problematic shifts. These steps involve two challenging ingredients: estimation requires anticipating how hypothetical policies would influence user preferences if deployed {–} we do this by using historical user interaction data to train a predictive user model which implicitly contains their preference dynamics; evaluation and optimization additionally require metrics to assess whether such influences are manipulative or otherwise unwanted {–} we use the notion of "safe shifts", that define a trust region within which behavior is safe: for instance, the natural way in which users would shift without interference from the system could be deemed "safe". In simulated experiments, we show that our learned preference dynamics model is effective in estimating user preferences and how they would respond to new recommenders. Additionally, we show that recommenders that optimize for staying in the trust region can avoid manipulative behaviors while still generating engagement.

Although it has been known since the 1970s that a globally optimal strategy profile in a common-payoff game is a Nash equilibrium, global optimality is a strict requirement that limits the result’s applicability. In this work, we show that any locally optimal symmetric strategy profile is also a (global) Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that this result is robust to perturbations to the common payoff and to the local optimum. Applied to machine learning, our result provides a global guarantee for any gradient method that finds a local optimum in symmetric strategy space. While this result indicates stability to unilateral deviation, we nevertheless identify broad classes of games where mixed local optima are unstable under joint, asymmetric deviations. We analyze the prevalence of instability by running learning algorithms in a suite of symmetric games, and we conclude by discussing the applicability of our results to multi-agent RL, cooperative inverse RL, and decentralized POMDPs.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a common general-purpose model used in robotics for representing sequential decision-making problems. Given the complexity of robotics applications, a popular approach for approximately solving MDPs relies on state aggregation to reduce the size of the state space but at the expense of policy fidelity-offering a trade-off between policy quality and computation time. Naturally, this poses a challenging metareasoning problem: how can an autonomous system dynamically select different state abstractions that optimize this trade-off as it operates online? In this paper, we formalize this metareasoning problem with a notion of time-dependent utility and solve it using deep reinforcement learning. To do this, we develop several general, cheap heuristics that summarize the reward structure and transition topology of the MDP at hand to serve as effective features. Empirically, we demonstrate that our metareasoning approach outperforms several baseline approaches and a strong heuristic approach on a standard benchmark domain.

As AI advances in capabilities and moves into the real world, its potential to benefit humanity seems limitless. Yet we see serious problems including racial and gender bias, manipulation by social media, and an arms race in lethal autonomous weapons. Looking further ahead, Alan Turing predicted the eventual loss of human control over machines that exceed human capabilities. I will argue that Turing was right to express concern but wrong to think that doom is inevitable. Instead, we need to develop a new kind of AI that is provably beneficial to humans.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and brain science are going to have a huge impact on society. While technologies based on those advances can provide enormous social benefits, adoption of new technologies poses various risks. This article first reviews the co-evolution of AI and brain science and the benefits of brain-inspired AI in sustainability, healthcare, and scientific discoveries. We then consider possible risks from those technologies, including intentional abuse, autonomous weapons, cognitive enhancement by brain-computer interfaces, insidious effects of social media, inequity, and enfeeblement. We also discuss practical ways to bring ethical principles into practice. One proposal is to stop giving explicit goals to AI agents and to enable them to keep learning human preferences. Another is to learn from democratic mechanisms that evolved in human society to avoid over-consolidation of power. Finally, we emphasize the importance of open discussions not only by experts, but also including a diverse array of lay opinions.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms seek to learn an optimal policy from a fixed dataset without active data collection. Based on the composition of the offline dataset, two main methods are used: imitation learning which is suitable for expert datasets, and vanilla offline RL which often requires uniform coverage datasets. From a practical standpoint, datasets often deviate from these two extremes and the exact data composition is usually unknown. To bridge this gap, we present a new offline RL framework, called single-policy concentrability, that smoothly interpolates between the two extremes of data composition, hence unifying imitation learning and vanilla offline RL. Under this new framework, we ask: can one develop an algorithm that achieves a minimax optimal rate adaptive to unknown data composition? To address this question, we consider a lower confidence bound (LCB) algorithm developed based on pessimism in the face of uncertainty in offline RL. We study finite-sample properties of LCB as well as information-theoretic limits in multi-armed bandits, contextual bandits, and Markov decision processes (MDPs). Our analysis reveals surprising facts about optimality rates. In particular, in both contextual bandits and RL, LCB achieves a fast convergence rate for nearly-expert datasets, analogous to the one achieved by imitation learning, contrary to the slow rate achieved in offline RL. In contextual bandits, we prove that LCB is adaptively optimal for the entire data composition range, achieving a smooth transition from imitation learning to offline RL. We further show that LCB is almost adaptively optimal in MDPs.

Lookahead search has been a critical component of recent AI successes, such as in the games of chess, go, and poker. However, the search methods used in these games, and in many other settings, are tabular. Tabular search methods do not scale well with the size of the search space, and this problem is exacerbated by stochasticity and partial observability. In this work we replace tabular search with online model-based fine-tuning of a policy neural network via reinforcement learning, and show that this approach outperforms state-of-the-art search algorithms in benchmark settings. In particular, we use our search algorithm to achieve a new state-of-the-art result in self-play Hanabi, and show the generality of our algorithm by also showing that it outperforms tabular search in the Atari game Ms. Pacman.

Existing observational approaches for learning human preferences, such as inverse reinforcement learning, usually make strong assumptions about the observability of the human's environment. However, in reality, people make many important decisions under uncertainty. To better understand preference learning in these cases, we study the setting of inverse decision theory (IDT), a previously proposed framework where a human is observed making non-sequential binary decisions under uncertainty. In IDT, the human's preferences are conveyed through their loss function, which expresses a tradeoff between different types of mistakes. We give the first statistical analysis of IDT, providing conditions necessary to identify these preferences and characterizing the sample complexity—the number of decisions that must be observed to learn the tradeoff the human is making to a desired precision. Interestingly, we show that it is actually easier to identify preferences when the decision problem is more uncertain. Furthermore, uncertain decision problems allow us to relax the unrealistic assumption that the human is an optimal decision maker but still identify their exact preferences; we give sample complexities in this suboptimal case as well. Our analysis contradicts the intuition that partial observability should make preference learning more difficult. It also provides a first step towards understanding and improving preference learning methods for uncertain and suboptimal humans.

Offline (or batch) reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms seek to learn an optimal policy from a fixed dataset without active data collection. Based on the composition of the offline dataset, two main methods are used: imitation learning which is suitable for expert datasets, and vanilla offline RL which often requires uniform coverage datasets. From a practical standpoint, datasets often deviate from these two extremes and the exact data composition is usually unknown. To bridge this gap, we present a new offline RL framework that smoothly interpolates between the two extremes of data composition, hence unifying imitation learning and vanilla offline RL. The new framework is centered around a weak version of the concentrability coefficient that measures the deviation of the behavior policy from the expert policy alone. Under this new framework, we ask: can one develop an algorithm that achieves a minimax optimal rate adaptive to unknown data composition? To address this question, we consider a lower confidence bound (LCB) algorithm developed based on pessimism in the face of uncertainty in offline RL. We study finite-sample properties of LCB as well as information-theoretic limits in multi-armed bandits, contextual bandits, and Markov decision processes (MDPs). Our analysis reveals surprising facts about optimality rates. In particular, in both contextual bandits and RL, LCB achieves a faster rate of $1/N$ for nearly-expert datasets compared to the usual rate of $1/\sqrt{N}$ in offline RL, where $N$ is the batch dataset sample size. In contextual bandits with at least two contexts, we prove that LCB is adaptively optimal for the entire data composition range, achieving a smooth transition from imitation learning to offline RL. We further show that LCB is almost adaptively optimal in MDPs.

In online reinforcement learning (RL), efficient exploration remains particularly challenging in high-dimensional environments with sparse rewards. In low-dimensional environments, where tabular parameterization is possible, count-based upper confidence bound (UCB) exploration methods achieve minimax near-optimal rates. However, it remains unclear how to efficiently implement UCB in realistic RL tasks that involve non-linear function approximation. To address this, we propose a new exploration approach via maximizing the deviation of the occupancy of the next policy from the explored regions. We add this term as an adaptive regularizer to the standard RL objective to balance exploration vs. exploitation. We pair the new objective with a provably convergent algorithm, giving rise to a new intrinsic reward that adjusts existing bonuses. The proposed intrinsic reward is easy to implement and combine with other existing RL algorithms to conduct exploration. As a proof of concept, we evaluate the new intrinsic reward on tabular examples across a variety of model-based and model-free algorithms, showing improvements over count-only exploration strategies. When tested on navigation and locomotion tasks from MiniGrid and DeepMind Control Suite benchmarks, our approach significantly improves sample efficiency over state-of-the-art methods.

Recommender systems trained via long-horizon optimization (e.g., reinforcement learning) will have incentives to actively manipulate user preferences through the recommended content. While some work has argued for making systems myopic to avoid this issue, even such systems can induce systematic undesirable preference shifts. Thus, rather than artificially stifling the capabilities of the system, in this work we explore how we can make capable systems that explicitly avoid undesirable shifts. We advocate for (1) estimating the preference shifts that would be induced by recommender system policies, and (2) explicitly characterizing what unwanted shifts are and assessing before deployment whether such policies will produce them – ideally even actively optimizing to avoid them. These steps involve two challenging ingredients: (1) requires the ability to anticipate how hypothetical policies would influence user preferences if deployed; instead, (2) requires metrics to assess whether such influences are manipulative or otherwise unwanted. We study how to do (1) from historical user interaction data by building a user predictive model that implicitly contains their preference dynamics; to address (2), we introduce the notion of a “safe policy”, which defines a trust region within which behavior is believed to be safe. We show that recommender systems that optimize for staying in the trust region avoid manipulative behaviors (e.g., changing preferences in ways that make users more predictable), while still generating engagement.

A wide range of reinforcement learning (RL) problems --- including robustness, transfer learning, unsupervised RL, and emergent complexity --- require specifying a distribution of tasks or environments in which a policy will be trained. However, creating a useful distribution of environments is error prone, and takes a significant amount of developer time and effort. We propose Unsupervised Environment Design (UED) as an alternative paradigm, where developers provide environments with unknown parameters, and these parameters are used to automatically produce a distribution over valid, solvable environments. Existing approaches to automatically generating environments suffer from common failure modes: domain randomization cannot generate structure or adapt the difficulty of the environment to the agent's learning progress, and minimax adversarial training leads to worst-case environments that are often unsolvable. To generate structured, solvable environments for our protagonist agent, we introduce a second, antagonist agent that is allied with the environment-generating adversary. The adversary is motivated to generate environments which maximize regret, defined as the difference between the protagonist and antagonist agent's return. We call our technique Protagonist Antagonist Induced Regret Environment Design (PAIRED). Our experiments demonstrate that PAIRED produces a natural curriculum of increasingly complex environments, and PAIRED agents achieve higher zero-shot transfer performance when tested in highly novel environments.

We present an efficient and practical (polynomial time) algorithm for online prediction in unknown and partially observed linear dynamical systems (LDS) under stochastic noise. When the system parameters are known, the optimal linear predictor is the Kalman filter. However, in unknown systems, the performance of existing predictive models is poor in important classes of LDS that are only marginally stable and exhibit long-term forecast memory. We tackle this problem by bounding the generalized Kolmogorov width of the Kalman filter coefficient set. This motivates the design of an algorithm, which we call spectral LDS improper predictor (SLIP), based on conducting a tight convex relaxation of the Kalman predictive model via spectral methods. We provide a finite-sample analysis, showing that our algorithm competes with the Kalman filter in hindsight with only logarithmic regret. Our regret analysis relies on Mendelson’s small-ball method, providing sharp error bounds without concentration, boundedness, or exponential forgetting assumptions. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that SLIP outperforms state-of-the-art methods in LDS prediction. Our theoretical and experimental results shed light on the conditions required for efficient probably approximately correct (PAC) learning of the Kalman filter from partially observed data.

Imitation Learning (IL) algorithms are typically evaluated in the same environment that was used to create demonstrations. This rewards precise reproduction of demonstrations in one particular environment, but provides little information about how robustly an algorithm can generalise the demonstrator's intent to substantially different deployment settings. This paper presents the MAGICAL benchmark suite, which permits systematic evaluation of generalisation by quantifying robustness to different kinds of distribution shift that an IL algorithm is likely to encounter in practice. Using the MAGICAL suite, we confirm that existing IL algorithms overfit significantly to the context in which demonstrations are provided. We also show that standard methods for reducing overfitting are effective at creating narrow perceptual invariances, but are not sufficient to enable transfer to contexts that require substantially different behaviour, which suggests that new approaches will be needed in order to robustly generalise demonstrator intent. Code and data for the MAGICAL suite is available at https://github.com/qxcv/magical/

Despite the recent advances of deep reinforcement learning (DRL), agents trained by DRL tend to be brittle and sensitive to the training environment, especially in the multi-agent scenarios. In the multi-agent setting, a DRL agent’s policy can easily get stuck in a poor local optima w.r.t. its training partners – the learned policy may be only locally optimal to other agents’ current policies. In this paper, we focus on the problem of training robust DRL agents with continuous actions in the multi-agent learning setting so that the trained agents can still generalize when its opponents’ policies alter. To tackle this problem, we proposed a new algorithm, MiniMax Multi-agent Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (M3DDPG) with the following contributions: (1) we introduce a minimax extension of the popular multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm (MADDPG), for robust policy learning; (2) since the continuous action space leads to computational intractability in our minimax learning objective, we propose Multi-Agent Adversarial Learning (MAAL) to efficiently solve our proposed formulation. We empirically evaluate our M3DDPG algorithm in four mixed cooperative and competitive multi-agent environments and the agents trained by our method significantly outperforms existing baselines.

We introduce a new memory architecture, Bayesian Relational Memory (BRM), to improve the generalization ability for semantic visual navigation agents in unseen environments, where an agent is given a semantic target to navigate towards. BRM takes the form of a probabilistic relation graph over semantic entities (e.g., room types), which allows (1) capturing the layout prior from training environments, i.e., prior knowledge, (2) estimating posterior layout at test time, i.e., memory update, and (3) efficient planning for navigation, altogether. We develop a BRM agent consisting of a BRM module for producing sub-goals and a goal-conditioned locomotion module for control. When testing in unseen environments, the BRM agent outperforms baselines that do not explicitly utilize the probabilistic relational memory structure.

Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, theoretical models of this kind have developed slowly, and robust, high-precision predictive models of human decisions remain a challenge. While machine learning is a natural candidate for solving these problems, it is currently unclear to what extent it can improve predictions obtained by current theories. We argue that this is mainly due to data scarcity, since noisy human behavior requires massive sample sizes to be accurately captured by off-the-shelf machine learning methods. To solve this problem, what is needed are machine learning models with appropriate inductive biases for capturing human behavior, and larger datasets. We offer two contributions towards this end: first, we construct “cognitive model priors” by pretraining neural networks with synthetic data generated by cognitive models (i.e., theoretical models developed by cognitive psychologists). We find that fine-tuning these networks on small datasets of real human decisions results in unprecedented state-of-the-art improvements on two benchmark datasets. Second, we present the first large-scale dataset for human decision-making, containing over 240,000 human judgments across over 13,000 decision problems. This dataset reveals the circumstances where cognitive model priors are useful, and provides a new standard for benchmarking prediction of human decisions under uncertainty.

Our goal is for AI systems to correctly identify and act according to their human user’s objectives. Cooperative Inverse Reinforcement Learning (CIRL) formalizes this value alignment problem as a two-player game between a human and robot, in which only the human knows the parameters of the reward function: the robot needs to learn them as the interaction unfolds. Previous work showed that CIRL can be solved as a POMDP, but with an action space size exponential in the size of the reward parameter space. In this work, we exploit a specific property of CIRL: the human is a full information agent. This enables us to derive an optimality-preserving modification to the standard Bellman update, which reduces the complexity of the problem by an exponential factor. Additionally, we show that our modified Bellman update allows us to relax CIRL’s assumption of human rationality. We apply this update to a variety of POMDP solvers, including exact methods, point-based methods, and Monte Carlo Tree Search methods. We find that it enables us to scale CIRL to non-trivial problems, with larger reward parameter spaces, and larger action spaces for both robot and human. In solutions to these larger problems, the human exhibits pedagogical (teaching) behavior, while the robot interprets it as such and attains higher value for the human.

Despite the recent successes of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) in AI applications, PPLs offer only limited support for random variables whose distributions combine discrete and continuous elements. We develop the notion of measure-theoretic Bayesian networks (MTBNs) and use it to provide more general semantics for PPLs with arbitrarily many random variables defined over arbitrary measure spaces. We develop two new general sampling algorithms that are provably correct under the MTBN framework: the lexicographic likelihood weighting (LLW) for general MTBNs and the lexicographic particle filter (LPF), a specialized algorithm for state-space models. We further integrate MTBNs into a widely used PPL system, BLOG, and verify the effectiveness of the new inference algorithms through representative examples.

It is commonly believed that an agent making decisions on behalf of two or more principals who have different utility functions should adopt a Pareto optimal policy, i.e. a policy that cannot be improved upon for one principal without making sacrifices for another. Harsanyi's theorem shows that when the principals have a common prior on the outcome distributions of all policies, a Pareto optimal policy for the agent is one that maximizes a fixed, weighted linear combination of the principals’ utilities. In this paper, we derive a more precise generalization for the sequential decision setting in the case of principals with different priors on the dynamics of the environment. We refer to this generalization as the Negotiable Reinforcement Learning (NRL) framework. In this more general case, the relative weight given to each principal’s utility should evolve over time according to how well the agent’s observations conform with that principal’s prior. To gain insight into the dynamics of this new framework, we implement a simple NRL agent and empirically examine its behavior in a simple environment.

In recent years, deep generative models have been shown to 'imagine' convincing high-dimensional observations such as images, audio, and even video, learning directly from raw data. In this work, we ask how to imagine goal-directed visual plans -- a plausible sequence of observations that transition a dynamical system from its current configuration to a desired goal state, which can later be used as a reference trajectory for control. We focus on systems with high-dimensional observations, such as images, and propose an approach that naturally combines representation learning and planning. Our framework learns a generative model of sequential observations, where the generative process is induced by a transition in a low-dimensional planning model, and an additional noise. By maximizing the mutual information between the generated observations and the transition in the planning model, we obtain a low-dimensional representation that best explains the causal nature of the data. We structure the planning model to be compatible with efficient planning algorithms, and we propose several such models based on either discrete or continuous states. Finally, to generate a visual plan, we project the current and goal observations onto their respective states in the planning model, plan a trajectory, and then use the generative model to transform the trajectory to a sequence of observations. We demonstrate our method on imagining plausible visual plans of rope manipulation.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

Online joint parameter and state estimation is a core problem for temporal models.Most existing methods are either restricted to a particular class of models (e.g., the Storvik filter) or computationally expensive (e.g., particle MCMC). We propose a novel nearly-black-box algorithm, the Assumed Parameter Filter (APF), a hybrid of particle filtering for state variables and assumed density filtering for parameter variables.It has the following advantages:(a) it is online and computationally efficient;(b) it is applicable to both discrete and continuous parameter spaces with arbitrary transition dynamics.On a variety of toy and real models, APF generates more accurate results within a fixed computation budget compared to several standard algorithms from the literature.

Detecting weak seismic events from noisy sensors is a difficult perceptual task. We formulate this task as Bayesian inference and propose a generative model of seismic events and signals across a network of spatially distributed stations. Our system, SIGVISA, is the first to directly model seismic waveforms, allowing it to incorporate a rich representation of the physics underlying the signal generation process. We use Gaussian processes over wavelet parameters to predict detailed waveform fluctuations based on historical events, while degrading smoothly to simple parametric envelopes in regions with no historical seismicity. Evaluating on data from the western US, we recover three times as many events as previous work, and reduce mean location errors by a factor of four while greatly increasing sensitivity to low-magnitude events.

Adversarial training is a mean of regularizing classification algorithms by generating adversarial noise to the training data.We apply adversarial training in relation extraction within the multi-instance multi-label learning framework.We evaluate various neural network architectures on two different datasets.Experimental results demonstrate that adversarial training is generally effective for both CNN and RNN models and significantly improves the precision of predicted relations.

In the context of hierarchical reinforcement learning, the idea of hierarchies of abstract machines (HAMs) is to write a partial policy as a set of hierarchical finite state machines with unspecified choice states, and use reinforcement learning to learn an optimal completion of this partial policy. Given a HAM with potentially deep hierarchical structure, there often exist many internal transitions where a machine calls another machine with the environment state unchanged. In this paper, we propose a new hierarchical reinforcement learning algorithm that discovers such internal transitions automatically, and shortcircuits them recursively in computation of Q values. The resulting HAMQ-INT algorithm outperforms the state of the art significantly on the benchmark Taxi domain and a much more complex RoboCup Keepaway domain.

It is clear that one of the primary tools we can use to mitigate the potential risk from a misbehaving AI system is the ability to turn the system off. As the capabilities of AI systems improve, it is important to ensure that such systems do not adopt subgoals that prevent a human from switching the system off. This is a challenge because many formulations of rational agents create strong incentives for self-preservation. This is not caused by a built-in instinct, but because a rational agent will maximize expected utility and cannot achieve whatever objective it has been given if it is dead. Our goal is to study the incentives an agent has to allow itself to be switched off. We analyze a simple game between a human H and a robot R, where H can press R’s off switch but R can disable the off switch. A traditional agent takes its reward function for granted: we show that such agents have an incentive to disable the off switch, except in the special case where H is perfectly rational. Our key insight is that for R to want to preserve its off switch, it needs to be uncertain about the utility associated with the outcome, and to treat H’s actions as important observations about that utility. (R also has no incentive to switch itself off in this setting.) We conclude that giving machines an appropriate level of uncertainty about their objectives leads to safer designs, and we argue that this setting is a useful generalization of the classical AI paradigm of rational agents.

Intuitively, obedience -- following the order that a human gives -- seems like a good property for a robot to have. But, we humans are not perfect and we may give orders that are not best aligned to our preferences. We show that when a human is not perfectly rational then a robot that tries to infer and act according to the human's underlying preferences can always perform better than a robot that simply follows the human's literal order. Thus, there is a tradeoff between the obedience of a robot and the value it can attain for its owner. We investigate how this tradeoff is impacted by the way the robot infers the human's preferences, showing that some methods err more on the side of obedience than others. We then analyze how performance degrades when the robot has a misspecified model of the features that the human cares about or the level of rationality of the human. Finally, we study how robots can start detecting such model misspecification. Overall, our work suggests that there might be a middle ground in which robots intelligently decide when to obey human orders, but err on the side of obedience.

Autonomous agents optimize the reward function we give them. What they don't know is how hard it is for us to design a reward function that actually captures what we want. When designing the reward, we might think of some specific training scenarios, and make sure that the reward will lead to the right behavior in those scenarios. Inevitably, agents encounter new scenarios (e.g., new types of terrain) where optimizing that same reward may lead to undesired behavior. Our insight is that reward functions are merely observations about what the designer actually wants, and that they should be interpreted in the context in which they were designed. We introduce inverse reward design (IRD) as the problem of inferring the true objective based on the designed reward and the training MDP. We introduce approximate methods for solving IRD problems, and use their solution to plan risk-averse behavior in test MDPs. Empirical results suggest that this approach can help alleviate negative side effects of misspecified reward functions and mitigate reward hacking.

STRIPS-like languages (SLLs) have fostered immense advances in automated planning. In practice, SLLs are used to express highly abstract versions of real-world planning problems, leading to more concise models and faster solution times. Unfortunately, as we show in the paper, simple ways of abstracting solvable real-world problems may lead to SLL models that are unsolvable, SLL models whose solutions are incorrect with respect to the real-world problem, or models that are inexpressible in SLLs. There is some evidence that such limitations have restricted the applicability of AI planning technology in the real world, as is apparent in the case of task and motion planning in robotics. We show that the situation can be ameliorated by a combination of increased expressive power — for example, allowing angelic nondeterminism in action effects — and new kinds of algorithmic approaches designed to produce correct solutions from initially incorrect or non-Markovian abstract models.

We consider the problem of refining an abstract task plan into a motion trajectory. Task and motion planning is a hard problem that is essential to long-horizon mobile manipulation. Many approaches divide the problem into two steps: a search for a task plan and task plan refinement to find a feasible trajectory. We apply sequential quadratic programming to jointly optimize over the parameters in a task plan (e.g., trajectories, grasps, put down locations). We provide two modifications that make our formulation more suitable to task and motion planning. We show how to use movement primitives to reuse previous solutions (and so save optimization effort) without trapping the algorithm in a poor basin of attraction. We also derive an early convergence criterion that lets us quickly detect unsatisfiable constraints so we can re-initialize their variables. We present experiments in a navigation amongst movable objects domain and show substantial improvement in cost over a backtracking refinement algorithm.

For an autonomous system to be helpful to humans and to pose no unwarranted risks, it needs to align its values with those of the humans in its environment in such a way that its actions contribute to the maximization of value for the humans. We propose a formal definition of the value alignment problem as cooperative inverse reinforcement learning (CIRL). A CIRL problem is a cooperative, partial- information game with two agents, human and robot; both are rewarded according to the human’s reward function, but the robot does not initially know what this is. In contrast to classical IRL, where the human is assumed to act optimally in isolation, optimal CIRL solutions produce behaviors such as active teaching, active learning, and communicative actions that are more effective in achieving value alignment. We show that computing optimal joint policies in CIRL games can be reduced to solving a POMDP, prove that optimality in isolation is suboptimal in CIRL, and derive an approximate CIRL algorithm.

We create a unified framework for analyzing and synthesizing plans with loops for solving problems with non-deterministic numeric effects and a limited form of partial observability. Three different action models---with deterministic, qualitative non-deterministic and Boolean non-deterministic semantics---are handled using a single abstract representation. We establish the conditions under which the correctness and termination of solutions, represented as abstract policies, can be verified. We also examine the feasibility of learning abstract policies from examples. We demonstrate our techniques on several planning problems and show that they apply to challenging real-world tasks such as doing the laundry with a PR2 robot. These results resolve a number of open questions about planning with loops and facilitate the development of new algorithms and applications.

Gaussian processes have been successful in both supervised and unsupervised machine learning tasks, but their computational complexity has constrained practical applications. We introduce a new approximation for large-scale Gaussian processes, the Gaussian Process Random Field (GPRF), in which local GPs are coupled via pairwise potentials. The GPRF likelihood is a simple, tractable, and parallelizeable approximation to the full GP marginal likelihood, enabling latent variable modeling and hyperparameter selection on large datasets. We demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic spatial data as well as a real-world application to seismic event location.

The need for combined task and motion planning in robotics is well understood. Solutions to this problem have typically relied on special purpose, integrated implementations of task planning and motion planning algorithms. We propose a new approach that uses off-the-shelf task planners and motion planners and makes no assumptions about their implementation. Doing so enables our approach to directly build on, and benefit from, the vast literature and latest advances in task planning and motion planning. It uses a novel representational abstraction and requires only that failures in computing a motion plan for a high-level action be identifiable and expressible in the form of logical predicates at the task level. We evaluate the approach and illustrate its robustness through a number of experiments using a state-of-the-art robotics simulator and a PR2 robot. These experiments show the system accomplishing a diverse set of challenging tasks such as taking advantage of a tray when laying out a table for dinner and picking objects from cluttered environments where other objects need to be re-arranged before the target object can be reached.

Deterministic and near-deterministic relationships among subsets of random variables in multivariate systems are known to cause serious problems for Monte Carlo algorithms. We examine the case in which the relationship Z = f(X_1,...,X_k) holds, where each X_i has a continuous prior pdf and we wish to obtain samples from the conditional distribution P(X_1,...,X_k | Z= s). When f is addition, the problem is NP-hard even when the X_i are independent. In more restricted cases — for example, i.i.d. Boolean or categorical X_i — efficient exact samplers have been obtained previously. For the general continuous case, we propose a dynamic scaling algorithm (DYSC), and prove that it has O(k) expected running time and finite variance. We discuss generalizations of DYSC to functions f described by binary operation trees. We evaluate the algorithm on several examples.

The parameters of temporal models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks, may be modelled in a Bayesian context as static or atemporal variables that influence transition probabilities at every time step. Particle filters fail for models that include such variables, while methods that use Gibbs sampling of parameter variables may incur a per-sample cost that grows linearly with the length of the observation sequence. Storvik devised a method for incremental computation of exact sufficient statistics that, for some cases, reduces the per-sample cost to a constant. In this paper, we demonstrate a connection between Storvik’s filter and a Kalman filter in parameter space and establish more general conditions under which Storvik’s filter works. Drawing on an analogy to the extended Kalman filter, we develop and analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, a Taylor approximation to the parameter posterior that allows Storvik’s method to be applied to a broader class of models. Our experiments on both synthetic examples and real applications show improvement over existing methods.

Many scientific data occur as sequences of multidimensional arrays called tensors. How can hidden, evolving trends in such data be extracted while preserving the tensor structure? The model that is traditionally used is the linear dynamical system (LDS), which treats the observation at each time slice as a vector. In this paper, we propose the multilinear dynamical system (MLDS) for modeling tensor time series and an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters. The MLDS models each time slice of the tensor time series as the multilinear projection of a corresponding member of a sequence of latent, low-dimensional tensors. Compared to the LDS with an equal number of parameters, the MLDS achieves higher prediction accuracy and marginal likelihood for both simulated and real datasets.

The automated processing of multiple seismic signals to detect and localize seismic events is a central tool in both geophysics and nuclear treaty verification. This paper reports on a project, begun in 2009, to reformulate this problem in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian seismic monitoring system, NET-VISA, has been built comprising a spatial event prior and generative models of event transmission and detection, as well as an inference algorithm. Applied in the context of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a global sensor network developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), NET-VISA achieves a reduction of around 50% in the number of missed events compared to the currently deployed system. It also finds events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

We propose a novel approach for solving unary SAS + planning problems. This approach extends an SAS + instance with new state variables representing intentions about how each original state variable will be used or changed next, and splits the original actions into several stages of intention followed by eventual execution. The result is a new SAS + instance with the same basic solutions as the original. While the transformed problem is larger, it has additional structure that can be exploited to reduce the branching factor, leading to reachable state spaces that are many orders of magnitude smaller (and hence much faster planning) in several test domains with acyclic causal graphs. 1

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a global network of sensors whose purpose is to identify potential violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), primarily through detection and localization of seismic events. We report on the first stage of a project to improve on the current automated software system with a Bayesian inference system that computes the most likely global event history given the record of local sensor data. The new system, VISA (Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis), is based on empirically calibrated, generative models of event occurrence, signal propagation, and signal detection. VISA exhibits significantly improved precision and recall compared to the current operational system and is able to detect events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

We describe an application of probabilistic modeling and inference technology to the problem of analyzing sensor data in the setting of an intensive care unit (ICU). In particular, we consider the arterial-line blood pressure sensor, which is subject to frequent data artifacts that cause false alarms in the ICU and make the raw data almost useless for automated decision making. The problem is complicated by the fact that the sensor data are acquired at fixed intervals whereas the events causing data artifacts may occur at any time and have durations that may be significantly shorter than the data collection interval. We show that careful modeling of the sensor, combined with a general technique for detecting sub-interval events and estimating their duration, enables effective detection of artifacts and accurate estimation of the underlying blood pressure values.

Identity uncertainty is a pervasive problem in real-world data analysis. It arises whenever objects are not labeled with unique identifiers or when those identifiers may not be perceived perfectly. In such cases, two ob- servations may or may not correspond to the same object. In this paper, we consider the problem in the context of citation matching—the prob- lem of deciding which citations correspond to the same publication. Our approach is based on the use of a relational probability model to define a generative model for the domain, including models of author and title corruption and a probabilistic citation grammar. Identity uncertainty is handled by extending standard models to incorporate probabilities over the possible mappings between terms in the language and objects in the domain. Inference is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo, augmented with specific methods for generating efficient proposals when the domain contains many objects. Results on several citation data sets show that the method outperforms current algorithms for citation matching. The declarative, relational nature of the model also means that our algorithm can determine object characteristics such as author names by combining multiple citations of multiple papers.

We propose a dynamic Bayesian model for motifs in biopolymer se- quences which captures rich biological prior knowledge and positional dependencies in motif structure in a principled way. Our model posits that the position-specific multinomial parameters for monomer distribu- tion are distributed as a latent Dirichlet-mixture random variable, and the position-specific Dirichlet component is determined by a hidden Markov process. Model parameters can be fit on training motifs using a vari- ational EM algorithm within an empirical Bayesian framework. Varia- tional inference is also used for detecting hidden motifs. Our model im- proves over previous models that ignore biological priors and positional dependence. It has much higher sensitivity to motifs during detection and a notable ability to distinguish genuine motifs from false recurring patterns.

@cs.berkeley.edu Many algorithms rely critically on being given a good metric over their inputs. For instance, data can often be clustered in many “plausible” ways, and if a clustering algorithm such as K-means initially fails to find one that is meaningful to a user, the only recourse may be for the user to manually tweak the metric until sufficiently good clusters are found. For these and other applications requiring good metrics, it is desirable that we provide a more systematic way for users to indicate what they con- sider “similar.” For instance, we may ask them to provide examples. In this paper, we present an algorithm that, given examples of similar (and, , learns a distance metric over if desired, dissimilar) pairs of points in that respects these relationships. Our method is based on posing met-  ric learning as a convex optimization problem, which allows us to give efficient, local-optima-free algorithms. We also demonstrate empirically that the learned metrics can be used to significantly improve clustering performance. 

Bagging and boosting are well-known ensemble learning methods. They combine multiple learned base models with the aim of improving generalization performance. To date, they have been used primarily in batch mode, i.e., they require multiple passes through the training data. In previous work, we presented online bagging and boosting algorithms that only require one pass through the training data and presented experimental results on some relatively small datasets. Through additional experiments on a variety of larger synthetic and real datasets, this paper demonstrates that our online versions perform comparably to their batch counterparts in terms of classification accuracy. We also demonstrate the substantial reduction in running time we obtain with our online algorithms because they require fewer passes through the training data.

We present an expressive agent design language for reinforcement learn(cid:173) ing that allows the user to constrain the policies considered by the learn(cid:173) ing process.The language includes standard features such as parameter(cid:173) ized subroutines, temporary interrupts, aborts, and memory variables, but also allows for unspecified choices in the agent program. For learning that which isn't specified, we present provably convergent learning algo(cid:173) rithms. We demonstrate by example that agent programs written in the language are concise as well as modular. This facilitates state abstraction and the transferability of learned skills.

This talk proposes a very simple "baseline architecture " for a learning agent that can handle stochastic, partially observable environments. The architecture uses reinforcement learning together with a method for representing temporal processes as graphical models. I will discuss methods for learning the parameters and structure of such representations from sensory inputs, and for computing posterior probabilities. Some open problems remain before we can try out the complete agent; more arise when we consider scaling up. A second theme of the talk will be whether reinforcement learning can provide a good model of animal and human learning. To answer this question, we must do inverse reinforcement learning: given the observed behaviour, what reward signal, if any, is being optimized? This seems to be a very interesting problem for the COLT, UAI, and ML communities, and has been addressed in econometrics under the heading of structural estimation of Markov decision processes. 1 Learnin...

Bayesian networks are an extremely general probabilistic modeling framework, and are increasingly being applied to complex real-world problems. In this paper, we describe the use of a Bayesian network system in large vocabulary isolated word recognition.

This paper outlines several benefits and disadvantages of Java as the implementation language for a probabilistic inference package. Our focus is the linguistic features that make Java appropriate or inappropriate for this task. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Since its inception, artificial intelligence has relied upon a theoretical foundation centered around perfect rationality as the desired property of intelligent systems. We argue, as others have done, that this foundation is inadequate because it imposes fundamentally unsatisfiable requirements. As a result, there has arisen a wide gap between theory and practice in AI, hindering progress in the field. We propose instead a property called bounded optimality. Roughly speaking, an agent is bounded-optimal if its program is a solution to the constrained optimization problem presented by its architecture and the task environment. We show how to construct agents with this property for a simple class of machine architectures in a broad class of real-time environments. We illustrate these results using a simple model of an automated mail sorting facility. We also define a weaker property, asymptotic bounded optimality (ABO), that generalizes the notion of optimality in classical complexity theory. We then construct universal ABO programs, i.e., programs that are ABO no matter what real-time constraints are applied. Universal ABO programs can be used as building blocks for more complex systems. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects for bounded optimality as a theoretical basis for AI, and relate it to similar trends in philosophy, economics, and game theory.

Automatic symbolic traffic scene analysis is essential to many areas of IVHS (Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems). Traffic scene information can be used to optimize traffic flow during busy periods, identify stalled vehicles and accidents, and aid the decision-making of an autonomous vehicle controller. Improvements in technologies for machine vision-based surveillance and high-level symbolic reasoning have enabled the authors to develop a system for detailed, reliable traffic scene analysis. The machine vision component of the system employs a contour tracker and an affine motion model based on Kalman filters to extract vehicle trajectories over a sequence of traffic scene images. The symbolic reasoning component uses a dynamic belief network to make inferences about traffic events such as vehicle lane changes and stalls. In this paper, the authors discuss the key tasks of the vision and reasoning components as well as their integration into a working prototype. Preliminary results of an implementation on special purpose hardware using C-40 Digital Signal Processors show that near real-time performance can be achieved without further improvements.

The field of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) is concerned with inducing logic programs from examples in the presence of background knowledge. This paper defines the ILP problem, and describes the various syntactic restrictions that are commonly used for learning first-order representations. We then derive some positive results concerning the learnability of these restricted classes of logic programs, by reduction to a standard propositional learning problem. More specifically, k-clause predicate definitions consisting of determinate, function-free, non-recursve Horn clauses with variables of bounded depth are polynomially learnable under simple distributions. Similarly, recursive k-clause definitions are polynomially learnable under simple distributions if we allow existential and membership queries about the target concept.